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Guest Writer: What Now Senators? |
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By DJ Grimm (Guest Writer)
With the somewhat uneventful trade deadline for the Sens firmly in the rear-view mirror, now comes the time to look ahead to the upcoming off-season and next year. The temptation, of course, is to talk about the draft – where the Sens could pick and who they can get there – since the Sens will not make the playoffs. Again. The Sens will finish somewhere between 5th to 8th from the bottom of the standings. With a late season surge, they could draft 9th or 10th. With a heavy swoon, the best they can end up is 4th from the bottom - which is highly unlikely, but would allow them a shot at ending up with the first pick overall.
The problem with looking at the draft is that the draft won’t help the Sens immediately, outside of drafting Celebrini. The next two projected picks in the draft after Celebrini are hulking Russian D-men (a position the Sens need) that the NHL probably won’t see for at least two years. After that, it’s a bit of a crap shoot and mostly forwards. And these days it’s rare for young forwards to make an impact in the NHL in their first post-draft season. Look at Montreal – only now is their former first overall pick starting to look like an NHL player with star potential. That is nearly 3 years after he was drafted.
Ignoring the draft, and looking ahead, here is the forward projected lines for next year if everyone remains healthy, the RFA are all signed, and there are no major trades:
Tkachuk – Stutzle – Giroux
UFA – Norris – Batherson
Joseph – Pinto – Grieg
? (Belleville) – Kastelik - ? (UFA Vet)
Spares: Katchouk (RFA) – Ostapchuk – Kelly (RFA)
Basically, the Sens have 9 NHL forwards signed past this year. They also have MacEwen (insert joke here), who’s a buyout candidate/emergency call-up, and Ostapchuk who will probably get some time replacing Norris until he gets better. They have 2 NHL RFA’s they can sign (insert joke about Kelly here), along with Belleville RFA’s Sokolov, Reinhardt and Crookshank (all of whom don’t move the needle). Jiri Smejkal is a UFA but hasn’t done much in his time with the big club.
My opinion – they don’t sign Kelly, who doesn’t move the needle at all. Katchouk and Smejkal – I’m on the fence about and need to see more (you re-sign one but not both). MacEwen should be bought out. I’d like to replace Kastelik but he does win faceoffs and fights. For fourth line center…meh. So the Sens need to go out and get a UFA LW scorer on short term at less than $4M- $5M/yr (ie. Tarasenko 2.0 ….maybe literally Tarasenko). The other two spots (on the fourth line) should be filled by one Baby Sens call up and one UFA vet with size for under $1.2M.
Looking at the defense, barring injury and trade again:
Sanderson – Zub
Chabot – UFA
Chychrun – JBD/Kleven
This list makes the assumption that one of Kleven and JBD can fill the last RD spot on the Sens. And do so cheaply – which they will need. The glaring spot is the RD position we’ve needed all year. Plenty of UFA candidates – Walker, May, DeMelo, Pesce, Dumba, Tanev – but the problem is that RD is a position it seems that EVERY NHL team is looking for this coming off-season. Expect the Sens to overpay on term and money to fill this spot next year. Expect lots of debate on who the Sens should target in the off-season.
Beyond those 5 spots…Hamonic is signed for one more year (insert joke here) who’s a buyout candidate and should not be on the roster barring a bus crash involving all the present Sens defensemen. Branny is a RFA, as is Guenette. I’m not a fan of horribly undersized D, even though Brannstrom has impressed me with his hard work, steady improvement and superior puck movement. He also seems to be very popular with his teammates. Guenette – my hope is the Sens play him a lot over the last 15 games to get a good look. Either way, the 6/7 spots should be filled internally from Belleville. And cheaply – under $1M/yr, mostly because they have a LOT of money tied up on the left side.
The Goalies? I can’t open that can of worms. Too soon. I, like a lot of fans, are gun-shy when it comes to this team and that position. I was on board with signing Korpo at $4M. One or two years too much term at the time, especially if you think you have the goalie of the future in either Sogaard or Merilainen (who you have to plan on starting in 2-3 yrs anyways). I have no idea why the Korpo experiment has failed so badly – I pinned it on coaching and the right side of the D early. Some nights he looks good, most of the time he looks bad. Forsberg is what he is – a backup who can play games and win some….looking good some nights and not so much on other nights (a theme for the position and for the Sens this year). The Sens probably should have traded him by mid-season, if only to see what they have in Mads.
I would like the Sens to trade one of the goalies on the roster right now, to try something different. But there isn’t much out there and a LOT of teams will be looking to make goalie moves this off-season (hello New Jersey, LA, Buffalo, and especially Detroit). I would target for goalies with upside you can get cheaply – Stolarz comes to mind again. As does Vladar and Charlie Lindgren. Maybe roll the dice on Spencer Knight. When it comes to the Sens goalies, all we want is a goalie who has a save percentage above .905 and who can win some games. Where have you gone, Craig Anderson?
That’s it basically….Sens need a UFA scoring LW, a big RD, and then maybe one UFA vet with size to play on the fourth line. Every other need should come internally. Or with a trade involving one of Chabot or Chychrun (a debate for another time). In the meantime, the team should be concentrating on replenishing the prospect pool, which is (shockingly) ranked very low. And we should all prepare for some MAJOR changes if none of what I’ve suggested the Sens have to do in the off-season helps the team make the playoffs next year. Especially if a new coach can get this team to lose its Jekyll and Hyde persona.
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