Yesterday's blog about Jerry D'Amigo, a sophomore at Rensselear, and his decision to sign a professional contract with the Maple Leafs inspired the unavoidable debate of which path to the NHL is best. It was fueled even further by the announcement last night that Jarred Tinordi is going to decommit from the University of Notre Dame and will sign with the London Knights in the OHL instead.
First, I'd like to thank everyone who participated in that discussion either here in the comments, on twitter or via email. I thoroughly enjoyed discussing all of your well thought out arguments and respect your opinions even if I don't happen to agree with them ;)
Today's blog was inspired by those discussions...one in particular.
@LeafRagSource asked for my thoughts on "the NCAA being the worst training ground for NHL caliber players." To put it bluntly, I think that statement is beyond ridiculous and is one of the reasons my fantasy hockey team is made up entirely of former college hockey players. I wanted to bring awareness to the caliber of talent that's taken that route and been successful...Dany Heatley, Martin St Louis, Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith, Ryan Miller, Jimmy Howard, Ryan Kesler, etc. I could rattle off the list, but check out the video archives for the complete roster.
I was then asked why I thought NCAA players were leaving school for the CHL or AHL. We could talk about the difference in educational opportunities and the number of games they can play or not play and the time available for them to spend in the weight room or not, but that's rather pointless because it's really all about having options.
What's the difference between what Cam Flower did in signing a pro contract and Nick Leddy signing a pro contract?? Fowler has the option of going back to his junior team if he doesn't make the cut in Anahiem where as Leddy had to cut ties with the University of Minnesota because of NCAA eligibility rules. He doesn't have the same options that Fowler does and in my opinion, is making more of a commitment.
Some guys think they're ready. Some guys just want a change of scenery. Maybe there was a coaching change and the new coach wants to make changes that don't allow a particular player to develop into the best player he can be... The real problem is that we only see college players leaving for juniors because they can, but we NEVER see junior players leaving for the NCAA because they CAN'T and it really skews the perception that one is better than the other when really they're just different paths with different options available to them.
I spoke with Toronto Maple Leafs General Manager Brian Burke yesterday about this topic and he agreed. As a former college player at Providence College and a part owner of the Chiliwack Bruins he said, "There's no one-size-fits-all path to the NHL and we're lucky enough to have three sources of talent - Europe, najor junior and the NCAA - and I can't recommend one path for all players. Yes, the CHL has a proven track record of producing NHL talent, but the college path is steadily producing more and more NHL players. This is a silly debate...some players are better suited for juniors and others are better suited for the college route."
He also told me that awhile ago the NHL tried to work with the NCAA to relax the eligibility rules to include players that originally chose the CHL route but whated to change to the college route, but the NCAA wouldn't have any of it. How can they relax eligibility rules for one sport without it having an effect on other sports?
"Hockey is the only college sport where high school players have to consciously play at a level below their skills to preserve their college eligibility," said Burke. This spurred on the support and development of the USHL, a junior program in the United States with the intent of bringing together high-caliber high school players in a more competitive environment that follows the NCAA eligibility requirements.
Another rather spirited debate stemmed from my comment that "it's been proven over and over again that leaving college to play in the AHL is not always the best way to go."
Jeffmt made the argument that the AHL provided a higher level of competition, which I will most certainly agree with, but at the same time...why waste a year of your entry level contract developing when you can stay in college to do that and be more prepared to make an impact when you make the jump?
Because of this discussion, I was inspired to crunch some numbers on
players who left school early to persue professional contracts and here are the results:
In 2005, 26 NCAA players left early and five years later six of them currently play in the NHL - Patrick Eaves, Mark Stuart, Jimmy Howard, Mike Brown, Jeff Tambellini and Matt Greene. Only Eaves and Brown spent signifigant time in the NHL in their first professional season. Eight of the 26 are currently in the AHL, two in the ECHL, two in the SPHL, two are playing in Europe, one is playing college in Canada and five are no longer playing hockey. Of the 26 who left early that year, two of them went to juniors - one is in the AHL and the other is playing college in Canada.
In 2006, 31 NCAA players left early and four years later 13 of them currently play in the NHL - Phil Kessel, Ryan O'Byrne, Paul Stastny, Ryan Carter, Joe Pavelski, Drew Stafford, Drew Miller, Robbie Earl, Travis Zajac, Dan Winnik, Ryan Potulny, Matt Carle and David Backes. Kessel, Stastny, Pavelski, Stafford, Zajac, Carle and Backes spent signifigant time in the NHL in their first professional season. Seven of the 31 are currently in the AHL, five in the ECHL, three are in the Central Hockey League, one in the IHL, one in Europe and one no longer plays hockey. Of the 31 who left school, two of them went to juniors - one is in the AHL and the other is in the ECHL.
In 2007, a whopping 51 NCAA players left early and three years later 11 of them currently play in the NHL - Jonathan Toews, David Jones, Andrew Cogliano, Teddy Purcell, Erik Johnson, TJ Galiardi, Jonathan Quick, Jack Johnson, Torrey Mitchell, Matt Niskanen and Mayson Raymond. Only Toews, Cogliano, E. Johnson, J. Johnson, Mitchell, Niskanen and Raymond spent signifigant time in the NHL in their first professional season. Nineteen of the 51 are currently in the AHL, five in the ECHL, one is in Europe, one is playing college in Canada, one is in the Central Hockey League and 13 of them no longer play hockey. Of the 51 who left school, eight of them went to juniors - one plays college in Canada, two are in the ECHL, four are in the AHL and one, Galiardi, is in the NHL. Interestingly enough, he didn't voluntarily leave Dartmouth. He was dismissed for violating the school's academic policies.
In 2008, 44 NCAA players left school early and two years later nine of them currently play in the NHL - Max Pacioretty, Tim Kennedy, TJ Oshie, Taylor Chorney, Blake Wheeler, Chris Butler, Andreas Nodl, Justin Abdelkader and Kyle Okposo. Only Pacioretty, Oshie and Wheeler spent signifigant time in the NHL in their first professional season. Of the 44 that left school, 17 are in the AHL, six are in the ECHL, three in the Central Hockey League, one is in the OHL, one is playing college in Canada and seven no longer play hockey. Of the 44 who left, three of them went to juniors - one is still there, one plays college in Canada and one no longer plays hockey.
In 2009, 28 NCAA players left school early and a year later four of them spent signifigant time in the NHL in their first professional season - James van Riemsdyk, Colin Wilson, Viktor Stalberg and Tyler Bozak. Of the 28 who left school early, 11 are in the AHL, six are in the ECHL, one is in the SPHL, three are in the OHL and three no longer play hockey.
Taking a look at the bigger picture...Of the 180 players who left school early over the past five years...
43 can call themselves NHL players - 24% - only 23 (12%) made the NHL in their 1st season
62 are in the AHL - 34%
24 are in the ECHL - 13%
7 are in the Central Hockey League - 3%
4 are playing in Europe - 2%
4 are in the OHL - 2%
3 are playing college in Canada - 2%
3 are in the SPHL - 2%
1 is in the IHL - 0.5%
29 no longer play hockey - 16%
That means 76% of them left school early, signed a professional contract and are still developing or not playing at all.
Of the 17 who left school for juniors, three are still currently playing in the OHL, one is in the NHL (Galiardi), six are in the AHL, three are in the ECHL, three are playing college in Canada and one no longer plays.
(sidenote: I could only find a list of players who left early dating back to the 2005 season. I'd love to get a list dating back to at least 2000 to dig a little deeper into these statistics, so if you know where I can find them, please let me know!)
So far this summer, 37 NCAA players have decided to leave school early.
The fact is, there are many reasons a player would decide to leave school early to persue a professional career and it's an entirely personal decision. These guys have all sorts of people offering them advice on the best course of action for their development and they need to filter through all of that and make the best decision for them.
That said, I stand by my statement that leaving school to play in the AHL isn't always the best way to go. I still think an NCAA player should only leave school if they have a legit chance of spending signifigant time the NHL in their first year. Other wise, take advantage of the time to develop in college, don't waste a year or more of your entry level deal, put yourself in a better position to make an impact when you do make the jump and three years later, hopefully you'll be in a better position to negotiate your second contract.
No matter what path you choose, if you have it in you to make the NHL, you're going to make the NHL and that's really the bottom line.
Julie
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@JulieRobenhymer
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