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UPDATED 1:23...The Reality of the Logic...All 30 teams Analyzed |
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An Update of the Logic of all thirty teams has been added to the bottom of this post..
There are many great people on the internet that are Talking Trade Rumours...There are even people writing articles about the logic to use when evaluating a trade rumour. They all make some valid points that should be taken into account...
The Salary Cap: Yes, the cap obviously matters. Brian Burke came on our radio show and talked about how this needs to be changed so that a team can keep some money in order to move a player. I am going to join his campaign (which by the way has a very real and growing amount of support) and get the word out in my circles. I love Burke for if nothing else "getting the conversation started." I do think he is on to something. All that being said, the cap dimishes in impact with every passing day and if it is the difference between winning and losing, making or not making the playoffs, teams will get creative. Send guys to minors or waivers.
The No Trade Clause: Like contracts, there is a saying that "NTC's are made to be broken." The fact of the matter is that players are proud and they don't want to stay on a team that has ask them if they want to move. There are exceptions of course. The reality is a NTC should really be called a "Pick Your Team" clause. That is their purpose. See Forsberg and Tkachuk last deadline, and possible Sundin this one. In those cases the players felt an obligation to help their team out. That is why lists are given as to where these players are willing to go. "pick your team." 99% of players that I have talked to with NTCs have told me that they would wave it if asked and they all say, "Why would you stick around at a place that wants to move on. That would just suck to go to work everyday." These guys have more pride than that.
The "Ringing Endorsement": We have all heard the argument that a GM has come out and said, "We are not trading a him. He is a huge part of our team. We want him to wear our jersey for years to come." Ask yourself this. When have you heard "We are trading him. He's a bum. The sooner he is gone the better we'll sleep at night."? The fact is these guys are professional and even if they weren't, anyone who is worth anything in a trade won't get you a bag of pucks once you tell the world you are trading him.
The, "I love it here, my family is here, I am not going to ask to be moved: Again players are professional. I could tell you of at least six instances when I have talked to a player who told me he wanted out and then put on his best face for the press and made that kind of statement. Again these guys are pros.
So what is The Reality of the Logic When Looking at Trades and UFA Signings ?
If you must use logic in a world where GM's still overpay, and salaries took less than three years to get back to pre-lockout numbers, I can suggest one thing matters...like real estate it is LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION!
Thirty different logics. Don't ever apply Canadiens logic to a Thrashers situation or Flyers Logic to a Stars situation, etc...This is the common mistake that is being made everywhere on the net.
Each of these teams have their own logic set that is based on their ownership, recent circumstances and current fanbase happiness.
Ask your "What the Ek?" questions...
ALL 30 TEAMS: A LOOK AT LOGIC
Here are thirty logics from where I sit at this very moment.
Anaheim: Just won a Cup. Fans still happy. No idea what's going on with Neids or Selanne yet. May be able to take a bit of a mulligan this year, but need to be careful not to be a one hit wonder.
Atlanta: Made the playoffs last year (which was vital and cost them dearly when they made an illogical trade by some standards). If Hossa can't be re-signed they may just ride it out. It is more important to win now in Atlanta than it is to get something for Hossa, unless they are out of the playoffs...
Boston: Gm who is really under the gun to get something done by the fans. Ownership that realizes a dwindling season ticket base of close to 4,000. Red Sox and Patriots getting all the press.
Buffalo: Rabid fanbase that needs to be shown they can survive post Drury and Briere. High demands from fans to do something to get them back to the top NOW. Team feeling a bit guilty for not tying up Briere, Drury and McKee when they could. Not much patience.
Calgary: New coach that is not the kind of coach that will let things rest. Langkow a UFA. A big salaried goalie that is in a skid. Fans demanding answers, but will always come support the team.
Carolina: Took their mulligan last year. Need to make the playoffs again to avoid losing the momentum from the Cup completely. Could spare some prospects.
Chicago: Happy as a pig in...: New kids , young defense, home games on TV. Making the playoffs would be great. Being in the playoff hunt this year is probably enough considering the past decade.
Colorado: Spent too much on Smyth and Hannan to not see a return on investment. That money was spent to revitalize a fanbase that is accustomed to winning. (don't forget the rockies) Very creative GM come deadline time. Has money and Svatos.
Columbus: Very loyal fanbase, but they have never seen the post season. This is the year that has to happen for them. They are very likely to get agressive.
Dallas: Loyal, almost Canadian type fanbase that is patient. New GM has appeased them for now. Will not fall apart if they don't make the playoffs.
Detroit: In great shape. Riding very mature goalies. Likely not making moves unless injuries hit.
Edmonton: Aggressive and willing to take chances. Could move a d-man. Have been very actively pursuing options. Doesn't have a lot of money to move for money.
Florida: Every year the same thing happens. Florida trades away guys like Roberts because they are too far out of it and then they make a run. Florida is at the point where their fans are tired of that verse. The pressure will be immense this year and if they are within a few points of a playoff spot they will overpay to make a run.
LA: Lombardi is always the picture of patience and did make a huge splash this summer by signing quite a few players. If LA is in it I would expect him to stand pretty pat, if not I would expect Handzus to be VERY attractive to a team like Montreal, Ottawa, or NYR. They are still interested in a #1 goalie.
Minnesota: No question here. The Wild are not just good they are a Cup contender. The fans are knowledgeable and come out in droves which has enabled the Wild to not be pressured into anything rash. Demitra is a UFA2B however and this is a window year for them. They will likely try to add a key player or two especially if they are close to the top.
Montreal: Gainey is sharp, and this team is very strong despite recent tendancies. The pressure and microscope combined with the best ticket sales of all have enabled this team to be patient. UNTIL NOW. Now, the Habs have lived through an off-season where they are bridesmaids, and THE only way they are going to improve is through trades. Despite all the Halak talk I tend to agree with Eric Engels: Huet is the guy to move at the deadline. Question is, if he gets traded back to LA do we call him Hu-it again?
Nashville: The team in the best position of all teams going into the deadline. Solid young players, valuable expendable prospects, tons of cap space that the ownership group has said they will spend. If Nashville is close they could add a Hossa and a Sundin. Not that they will, but they definitely could. Plus the fans are going to expect a lot from these owners and Poile is a genius.
New Jersey: So are they sellers or not? This 6 game winning streak since I essentially claimed they were the biggest sellers really throws a monkey wrench into things. The Devils fans trust Lou and rarely ask for a trade. They will likely stay the course.
NYI: They have an agressive owner hell bent on proving everyone wrong. Looking back at the Ryan Smyth trade, the Isles have shown they will go for it. They once again have the money and the team is solid. DiPietro's signing is looking pretty good now isn't it?
NYR: The polar opposite of NJ, these fans expect the team to make moves and demand it. They are also run by a guy who is a TInker guy. The Rangers are in a a spot where they need to win now. They will always spend to the cap, and it doesn't matter that their farm team has a bigger payroll than Phoenix to the Rangers.
Ottawa: The fans expect nothing short of a Cup and love to tinker. Murray has shown to be the opposite, essentially not adding much to last year's team. The fact is that for the first time in a long time there is a singular plan in place. I don't expect the Sens to do anything too nuts, but I do think they will bulk up.
Philadelphia: The Flyers want to win yesterday. They have flat out made it known that anything is possible when it comes to improving the team. The fans are used to this as well. Selling tickets is not a huge problem, but winning is a priority. It is a great team to be a fan of. Odds are Forsberg returns.
Phoenix: Could become a place where cap space is spent as the deadline approaches. The Yotes are still winning, and anything above 12th in the Conference would be considered a huge plus. The Yotes are in great shape and dealing from a position of strength. Much like Philly last year.
Pittsburgh: A team on the verge of greatness and a fanbase and management willing to wait. They are in a team-wide sophomore slump but there is ZERO panic surrounding them. They will be fine and likely won't move due to even injury.
San Jose: This is the year the Sharks window is starting to close. This is the first time the most understanding "hey we are just out to have a good time" fanbase is demanding more. The Sharks have money and are the most likely to pull off the biggest first trade we see. They simply need to at least get to the Conference Finals. Jobs depend on it.
St. Louis: A team with a fanbase that has been kind enough with not making the playoffs (after making the playoffs for so many years). Extra D and a lack of scoring point towards movement. Plus the scoring that they are getting is largely from the oldest line on the team (save Boyes) . Both Tkachuk and Kariya are prone to slowing as the season goes. If they do slow a move will happen quickly.
Tampa Bay: Desperate for new ownership this is a team that will be taken apart if they miss the playoffs. However, they will need to make a major deal and get their goalie. They are a player away from being a top 3 team in the East. They could just as easily finish 14th. I think Feaster will get creative. He has no choice.
Toronto: Changes, Changes, Changes....If the CBA is threatening to lessen the excitement of the deadline, rest assured the Leafs will keep it VERY interesting. This is a team that needs to realize at the very top levels that they have taken their fans for granted for too long. There is no REAL apparent pressure to make the Leafs a better team, and even if that is NOT the case, sometimes you need to realize that what is perceived can be very, very real.
Vancouver: Too much invested and too strong defensively NOT to try and solidify. The Canucks have always been a team that makes lots of small deadline moves to solidify. They need scoring though, and they need it now. I think the Canaucks realize this and will do something major a few weeks pre-deadline.
Washington: The Caps are another team that could go either way. If they are close they are likely to overpay to get a rental. If not they will completely blow it up...And I mean completely. The ownership in Washington is putting on serious pressure for results NOW.
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