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The Toronto Maple Leafs state of limbo will be a point of discussion from now until the beginning of July, when the new NHL season begins. The NHL is expecting the salary cap to go up to over $87 million, but the Leafs will be choked worse than ever before by their core four forwards, as the extensions for Auston Matthews and William Nylander kick in and the final years of Mitch Marner and John Tavares are still on the books.
The total of $46.653 million takes up 53.2% of the Leafs salary cap, which makes it difficult for GM Brad Treliving to put together enough of a support structure around the core group to be a stronger and more competitive club (and if any those four players are absent due to injury or ineffective, the task becomes near impossible).
It will be an uncertain landscape over the next couple of months and what Treliving will be able to do in free agency and trades will be determined by the situation revolving around Marner. While the Leafs may have a discussion with Tavares to see if he would be willing to waive his no-movement clause, it is unlikely that the 33-year-old team captain would be willing to go someplace else. If Marner is also not open and not willing, then Treliving will have to address the following with limited resources:
Goaltending – In spite of how well Joseph Woll played last season on two separate occasions, the Leafs have to be concerned about his ability to stay healthy after missing three months with a high ankle sprain and another injury at the end of Game 6. The inconsistency of Ilya Samsonov will see him depart Toronto, which means that Treliving will have to find a 1A or 1B starter who makes in the $2 to $3 million range and can take over if Woll gets hurt again. Could the Leafs survive bringing back Martin Jones on a one-year deal?
Defense – Morgan Rielly, Jake McCabe, Simon Benoit and Conor Timmins are under contract, Timothy Liljegren is an RFA with arb rights, leaving the Leafs with at least three and perhaps four holes to fill on the blueline. TJ Brodie and Mark Giordano will likely not be returning. Liljegren will require a new contract (either long-term or a one-year arbitration settlement) and if Treliving goes into the free agent market, his budget will be limited. Re-signing Joel Edmundson will likely cost over $3 million per season, but his size, experience, and stability would be an asset, as would Ilya Lyubushkin if they try to bring him back.
Forward – The Marner situation will directly impact whether Toronto can re-sign either Tyler Bertuzzi or Max Domi, both who indicated they wanted to return. Connor Dewar will be qualified, but there is a question of whether Noah Gregor will be brought back. Nick Robertson scored in limited minutes and can be a bigger contributor higher in the lineup. A buyout of Ryan Reaves would save the Leafs $900,000 the next two seasons…..just an idea.
The Unknown Factor – whether the Leafs can get Toronto-area players to come back home for lesser money like Jason Spezza and Giordano did. There are too many names to mention as possibilities, but the attraction of playing with Matthews could have an impact.