TORONTO (Feb. 5) -- It has been two weeks since Cliff Fletcher replaced John Ferguson as interim general manager of the Maple Leafs and it's been an intensive period of evaluation for the long-time hockey executive. Fletcher considers himself a table-setter on behalf of the next full-time GM, and no one should be surprised if he chooses to switch the plates, the cutlery, and the glassware. The dynamic of the current Maple Leafs is not likely to be upheld by Fletcher, even if the team makes another one of its patented charges towards ninth or 10th-place in the Eastern Conference. In each of the past two seasons -- once qualifying for the playoffs became implausible -- the release of pressure enabled the club to perform quite well.
These surges put the Leafs in the worst-possible spot -- a rung beneath the post-season, and out of realistic contention for a prime draft-lottery pick. The team enters tonight's action (Tuesday) in 14th spot in the conference, eight points out of playoff territory, with six opponents between it and the final post-season berth. Finishing in this position would be absolutely ideal for the future of the club, but it's impossible to expect that players and coaches will stop competing. As such, whatever happens between now and the end of the schedule, Apr. 5, is largely out of Fletcher's control. He can make changes before the Feb. 26 NHL trade deadline -- and he will -- but the desire to compete belongs to those on the ice and behind the bench, regardless of who is in uniform.
During the past two weeks, I have spent a great deal of time chatting with people in and out of the Maple Leafs organization, trying to get a read on which players are of long-term value to the club, and which might be expendable. Based on my findings, the latter group is extensively bigger, and that shouldn't throw anyone for a loop. Fletcher was not summoned from retirement to handle the current roster with kid-gloves. His objective is to put the club on a vastly different path -- personnel-wise -- so the in-coming GM will be able to move the Leafs in an upward direction. That will require some creative thinking by the Silver Fox, whose hands will be partially tied by the movement-restrictive contracts he inherited from Ferguson. Expect that he'll use every weapon in his arsenal -- including trades, buyouts, and waivers that result in minor-league demotions.
The bar has been raised by the Leafs and the criteria moving forward is simple: Can a current player be expected to help the club in a long playoff run? If so, he'll stay. If not, every option will be considered to move him out. Therefore, do not expect this club to look overly familiar next September.
To the best of my instincts, the following is a rundown on how I appraise the roster -- player by player. I'll utilize what I call a "movement quotient" -- a number from one to 10 (in brackets) that I believe represents a player's chance of being removed from the current team... one being the lowest; 10 the highest.
ANDREW RAYCROFT Goalie (10): Ferguson's acquisition from the 2006 NHL Draft has no chance of remaining with the Maple Leafs beyond this season. He has one year left on his contract at $2.2 million and Fletcher will either buy him out or put him on waivers. A buyout (two-thirds of Raycroft's remaining salary spread over twice the length of his contract) would cost the Leafs roughly $733,333 of salary-cap space for each of the next two seasons. He would become an unrestricted free agent. Waivers is more realistic. If he is claimed by another team, the Leafs are off the hook. If he clears waivers and is demoted to the Marlies, the Leafs have to pay his contract in full, but the remaining figure ($2.2 million) does not count against the cap. There is one other option for the Leafs to consider, though it's rather wishful. A trade. Say the club drops to a point where there is literally no hope for a playoff spot (the Leafs are awfully close). Paul Maurice then uses Raycroft more frequently in the final two or three weeks, hoping he plays well, rehabilitates himself, and catches the eye of another team. The Leafs trade him and have no further obligation.
VESA TOSKALA Goalie (1): Has clearly established himself as the Maple Leafs' No. 1 netminder and will be here for at least the remainder of his contract -- two more years at $4 million per season.
WADE BELAK Forward/Defenceman (9): While he's a popular, low-maintenance player in the dressing room, it's unlikely Belak will be re-signed once his contract expires at the end of this season. His skill-set is minimal and though he's a willing fighter, he isn't among the feared heavyweights in the league. He'll become an unrestricted free agent and may have a future elsewhere in the NHL.
IAN WHITE Defenceman (6): Though he's an affordable commodity ($850,000 next season; $950,000 in 2009-10), White probably isn't a defenceman the Leafs can evision helping them through a long playoff chase. He's a decent passer and puck-carrier, but his physical game is extremely limited because of his size. I think the Leafs will try very hard to trade him before next season.
CARLO COLAIACOVO Defenceman (2): When healthy, which isn't often, Colaiacovo has shown that he can play at an advanced level in the NHL. And, at $1.4 million for each of the next two seasons, he isn't expensive. I believe Fletcher will hang onto him. Carlo is an exceptional skater with good puck instincts, and he's not afraid to involve himself physically, despite his numerous mishaps. He is a player I can imagine being a vital cog in a long playoff run, if he could only stay out of the damned infirmary.
MARK BELL Forward (8): This experiment has gone badly from the outset. Ferguson had no option but to assume the remaining two year's of Bell's contract in the trade negotiation that landed the Leafs Toskala. So, it wasn't a profound gamble. But, Mark was mostly ineffective in limited playing time. And, though he was willing to fight, he got beaten up pretty badly on a couple of occasions. Ryan Malone of the Penguins smashed his orbital bone in a scrap at Pittsburgh, Jan. 3, and Bell required corrective surgery. He may return before the end of the season, but it's unlikely he'll make enough of an impression to stay. He's slated to make $2.5 million next season and the Leafs will either buy him out or waive him. Trading Bell doesn't seem like a reasonable possibility.
ALEX STEEN Forward (5): Steen will be a restricted free agent if not re-signed by July 1 and the Leafs have a bit of a decision to make. Is he worth a long-term committment, or should Fletcher try to include him in a trade? I think it could go either way. Steen hasn't shown any appreciable improvement in his first three NHL seasons. In fact, his rookie year was his best. His father, Thomas, was a good offensive player with the Winnipeg Jets in the 1980s, and he was also much scrappier than Alex has proven to be. The younger Steen hasn't shown a true willingness to compete early in his career. He isn't a floater, but neither is he anything close to a puck hound. He does, however, posssess natural ability. So, the Leafs may give him a bit more time. But, Alex will have to change his game dramatically before he'll be considered a reliable commodity in a long Stanley Cup chase.
JIRI TLUSTY Forward (1): Not going anywhere. At the positive end of Ferguson's legacy will be this speedy winger, still playing on an entry-level contract for two more seasons ($850,000 next year; $765,000 in 2009-10). Tlusty, 19, has handled his rookie campaign in a very mature manner, which includes his response to the embarrassing Internet flap, in which compromising photos of him were posted and widely distributed. A terrific skater, he has shown a natural instinct in the attacking zone, and he isn't timid. The Leafs will give him every opportunity to develop into a front-line talent.
MATS SUNDIN Forward (3): Obviously, the big questionmark in Leaf Land. Sundin has full control over his immediate future with a no-movement clause in his contract. But, even if he refuses to waive that provision before the Feb. 26 deadline, there is no guarantee that he'll return to the Leafs next season, or will continue playing in the NHL. Though I think Fletcher is one of the few people in hockey that has the capacity to coerce Sundin into a trade, my gut says the big Swede isn't going anywhere. He has grown exceedingly comfortable in this city and, quite frankly, does not need the inconvenience of up-rooting himself -- even temporarily. He has a gazillion dollars in his bank account and a steady female companion here in town. So, I think Mats will choose to stay the remainder of the season, and then make a decision on his future. If he doesn't figure in the plans of the incoming Leafs' GM, he could pack it in. But, if he moves elsewhere, I sense he'll want to be part of a new team from the beginning of the season. It's 50/50 at best that he'll be back in Toronto next year. There's an outside chance he could talk Fletcher into a contract extension, but I feel that would be counter-productive for both sides.
MATT STAJAN Forward (6): Represents another decision for the Leafs this summer. His contract is up and he's a restricted free agent. Like Steen, is he worth a longer committment, or has he max'd out? I like the way Stajan has played in the past month. He's got an eye for the net, and the ability to create offence when he's interested. And, that's the key. Does he have the natural drive and ambition to make himself into a better player? Can you close your eyes and see him being a factor in a long playoff run? These are legitimate questions for the Leafs. If the club is truly intent on going in a different direction, Stajan could prove to be expendable. In my mind, he hasn't taken big enough steps to guarantee much more than he's shown so far. I 'd be only mildly surprised if he's not back.
TOMAS KABERLE Defenceman (5): The Leafs win either way with this veteran. It depends on whether they feel he's a keeper in the spring. In his first few playoff appearances, Kaberle has been unable to raise, or even maintain, his level of performance. He will not get involved physically, and that usually spells doom at Stanley Cup time. But, he's an above-average talent and a very good passer. His patience with the puck is usually an advantage for the Leafs, until that patience crosses over to indecision. Then, he becomes a liability. He is signed to a modest salary ($4.25 million) for each of the next three seasons, which makes him easy to keep and easy to trade. His future might depend on Anton Stralman's development. Stralman is proving to be just as efficient an outlet passer, but he needs to bulk up and become much stronger. Kaberle has a no-trade clause, but would probably consider waiving if Fletcher asked him to. The Leafs could get lots in return for the Czech native.
DARCY TUCKER Forward (4): Only one question needs to be answered with this popular veteran: Has he stumbled this season because of injury, or is he simply worn out from playing three inches taller and 15 pounds heavier all of these years? If it's the former, he'll be back next season, with three years remaining on his $3 million per anum deal. If it's the latter, the Leafs cannot afford to keep him. But, Darcy also has a no-trade and is highly unlikely to waive that privilege. So, what does Fletcher do? If he buys out Tucker, the Leafs assume a $1 million cap hit for each of the next six seasons. A waiver claim would take the Leafs off the hook, but what if Darcy were to clear? Would Fletcher dare demote such a prevalent figure? Of course, if Fletcher made it clear to Tucker that he truly wasn't interested in keeping him around, how then would the player react? These are all questions without answers. But, if it's determined that Darcy has spent all of his fuel, you can be sure the Leafs will try to pare him from the roster.
CHAD KILGER Forward (7): With one year and only $700,000 remaining on his contract, Kilger is a solid bet to be back with the Leafs... if Fletcher doesn't trade him. A big, strapping winger with a strong physical presence, Kilger could be attractive to any number of playoff-bound teams before the Feb. 26 deadline. He is very strong on the forecheck and is capable of chipping in with the odd goal. I don't believe Fletcher will be at all hesitent to deal him for a future asset, though unconfirmed rumors of an illness in Chad's family could be a factor.
DOMINIC MOORE Forward (8): His $700,000 contract runs out this season and he becomes an unrestricted free agent. Though Dominic is a fine person and a useful role player, he has proven to be a marginal talent with only 19 goals in 196 NHL games. That's why he's bounced around from the Rangers to Pittsburgh to Minnesota and the Leafs. Players of his ilk are a dime-a-dozen. I believe Fletcher will be aiming higher in the off-season and that Moore is unlikely to return.
JOHN POHL Forward (9): See Dominic Moore.
BOYD DEVEREAUX Forward (3): Slated to earn $600,000 in the final year of his contract next season, I think the Leafs will find a place for him. Not every player on the team can be a Grade-A talent, and Devereaux has shown enough hustle without the puck to warrant another look. If he could ever pour the cement out of his gloves, he'd be an even greater asset. But, I see him returning.
ALEXEI PONIKAROVSKY Forward (2): Had he not wrecked his shoulder last week against Washington, Pony would have been prime trade-bait for Fletcher. But, since he's not expected back until mid-March, it's unlikely any team will take a chance on acquiring him before the Feb. 26 deadline. Though Ponikarovsky occasionally tantalizes with his scoring streaks, it doesn't appear that he'll become anything more than he is today. Which isn't all bad. He's a fairly reliable winger that doesn't shy away from contact, and is capable of putting 20-plus goals into the net each season. Lots of teams could use players like him. So, unless he's traded in the summer, I believe Pony will return to the Leafs. He has two years left on his deal at $2.24 million and $2.5 million. Almost exactly what he's worth.
BRYAN McCABE Defenceman (3): Though he's been missed during his seven-week absence with a broken hand, I sense that McCabe isn't quite as revered by the current regime as he was under Ferguson. That may not amount to a hill of beans because Bryan's contract is so restrictive, the Leafs can't even send him home after games. Every move he makes; every place he goes, is up to No. 24. The Leafs still have $14.45 million tied up in McCabe for the next three seasons, including $6.15 million in 2008-09. That's an awful trunk-load of cash to move. His bullet one-timer from the point provides the club an element it doesn't have, but is he worth the money on this team? Despite his large stipend, might a club in legitimate contention look to acquire him? If so, I think Fletcher would pull the trigger. Bryan has final say on any movement, but I don't sense that he's quite as opposed to waiving his restrictions as Sundin, Tucker or Kaberle. Chances are, however, he'll be back.
HAL GILL Defenceman (6): The big man on the blueline is owed only $2.1 million next season in the final year of his contract, and is well worth that amount. But, I'll be shocked if Fletcher is unable to peddle him before the Feb. 26 deadline. A smart player and a dilligent worker, Gill has gone from being a veritable pylon in his final sesaon with the Bruins to one of the most dependable, stay-at-home defencemen in the league. He is fully capable of being an absolute horse for a team during a long playoff run and I imagine Hal is an attractive commodity for any of a half-dozen teams in the Western Conference, where size on the blueline seems to be paramount. He's another player that would much better suit a contending team. If Fletcher doesn't trade him by the deadline, he'll be back.
BEN ONDRUS Forward (6): What the Leafs do in the summer with this restricted free agent probably doesn't matter all that much. He isn't talented enough to be a full-time NHLer, but his aggresive nature and no-nonsense approach could keep him around as a valuable fill-in, and an attraction in the AHL.
PAVEL KUBINA Defenceman (2): It may surprise you to see me rank this fellow as such a long-shot to be moved, but I've come to understand that Kubina is among the most respected and appreciated players in the Leafs' dressing room. His desire to win and his tireless work ethic has impressed most people in the organization and though he's owed a whopping $5 million for each of the next two seasons, I'll be surprised if he goes anywhere. Fletcher almost certainly will not approach him to waive his no-trade clause. Kubina answers affirmatively the key question of the new regime, having been a huge part of Tampa Bay's run to the Stanley Cup in 2004.
ANTON STRALMAN Defenceman (1): Like Tlusty, this young player will be given every opportunity to become a front-liner with the Leafs. He has come to the NHL as advertised, with an instinctive ability to move the puck out of the defensive zone, and an easy skating stride that allows him to cover ground quickly. At the moment, however, those attributes are significantly neutralized by his physical weakness. Anton must become more of a factor down low, and in front of his own net. No one is expecting him to develop into a bruiser, but his handling of opposition forwards needs lots of work. Slated to earn a modest $615,000 next season.
KYLE WELLWOOD Forward (7): No player on the team has plummted more spectacularly than the centre the Leafs were counting on for 70 points this season. Sure, his two groin operations in the past 13 months have been a factor, but his slow recovery seems to have exposed a questionable work ethic that does not sit well with the new regime. Kyle is a restricted free agent this summer, and I'm not at all certain the Leafs will rush to bring him back. As much as any player, he has come to personify the soft nature of this team. A change of scenery might benefit both sides.
ROBBIE EARL Forward (2): Though it's almost impossible to evaluate a player based on one NHL game, this speedy puck-chaser made an impressive debut on Saturday night against Ottawa, setting up Colaiacovo for the eventual winning goal with a nifty back-pass in front of the net. His skating ability has been evident in training camp the past few years, and he's had a very good season in the AHL with the Toronto Marlies. He'll more than likely join Tlusty and Stralman as players the Leafs will seek to develop.
KRIS NEWBURY Forward (4): In much the same category as Ondrus, with one exception: he's on the docket for $450,000 next season. A minor-leaguer whose willingness to scrap will probably keep him around one more year. Perhaps longer, if he proves capable of filling Belak's shoes, and the Leafs do not acquire another enforcer before next season.
JASON BLAKE Forward (3): While he hasn't quite been a bust, neither has this veteran winger justified the five-year, $20-million contract Ferguson signed him to as a free agent last summer -- $15 million of which is still on the books starting next season. Though he doesn't have a no-trade clause, Blake's value on the market is almost nil, and if the Leafs are contemplating a buy-out, he'll be on their cap-roll until he's 90. They could try waivers, but demoting a high-priced free agent after one year of service won't look good on the organization. So, the Leafs are probably stuck with Blake for at least two more seasons, at which point a buyout becomes a more appealing option.
ANDY WOZNIEWSKI Defenceman (9): The Woz is a good guy and a hard worker, but his lack of foot-speed and his tardy decision making has hurt him in his first full NHL season. He has taken numerous penalties for being out of position in all areas of the ice. Woz may have a future in the league but I don't think it's in Toronto. Andy is unrestricted this summer.
NIK ANTROPOV Forward (5): As with Kaberle, the Leafs are essentially in a no-lose situation with this now-veteran forward. Bik Nik is slated to earn only $2.15 million next season in the final year of his contract, and has proven to be well worth that amount. But, it also makes him an attractive trade possibility. And, given that Fletcher likes to make trades, I won't be at all surprised if Antropov is swapped sometime before next season. He's a player, however, for whom the Leafs will seek a meaningful return on the market.
So, there you have it. The appetite for change is high with Leafs' management right now. Of course, the club has to dress 20 players for each game next season, so wholesale alterations may not be practical. But, don't expect a lot of dithering from Fletcher. He's cut from a different cloth.
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