So I’m going to skip the regular features tonight and just keep writing until I fall asleep on my keyboard. As mentioned, this week is extremely busy and once I get through it I’ll be able to get back on the regular schedule. I actually started writing this Tuesday night after all the games but didn’t get too far before falling asleep - so we’ll see how this goes.
What I really want to do tonight is write about Peter Forsberg. Peter has narrowed down his breakfast options for Thursday to cereal, eggs with bacon and French toast. He has ruled out oatmeal, waffles, a smoothie and a bran muffin. I know it’s a fascinating topic, but I’m going to wait until he actually makes an announcement to write any further on the Forsberg.
Now to "Tolensky’s Thoughts" (in no particular order)..
ON AN ALL-STAR IDEA…
I’ve already given my thoughts on
how to revamp All-Star weekend , but I have one lingering idea that I forgot to mention..
Let the fans compete for a chance to take part in the James Duthie shootout competition.
Here’s how it would work – fans would be invited to submit videos on youtube of their most creative breakaway moves. The top 10 would be selected by a panel and posted on NHL.com, allowing readers to vote for their favorite move. The winner gets a trip to All-Star weekend, an all-access pass for the weekend and a chance to test their moves in the competition.
Sure 99.9999% of us could never even dream about keeping up with the pace of a real game, but given a few months to practice you’d think there's more than one fan out there who could certainly come up with a creative breakaway move to rival the All-Stars. Maybe it’s just me but it would make me more interested in the event for sure. And I think it would generate a ton of hype for the title sponsor of the contest.
ON OTTAWA SENATORS 90210…
I really do blame the Senators for turning their goaltending situation into a soap opera. This certainly isn’t the first time a team has had internal issues to deal with but it’s one of the only times I can think of where the team has been so open in discussing the matter. What ever happened to keeping these things in-house? I was shocked to see the story featured in the pre-game show on Hockey Night in Canada with the team’s Coach and General Manager airing the team’s dirty laundry across the nation.
Now you have a team with almost $7 mil+ in cap space tied up in two goalies who have no confidence and no trade value. If I were Murray/Paddock, I would issue a gag order on Emery and all things relating to goaltending. Let the team focus on getting things back on track – this is a Cup caliber team with Melrose Place caliber issues. Enough talking about your feelings to the media, and start taking action to resolve the problems on this team that may start in goal but extend well beyond the crease.
ON GEORGE GILLETTE…
Fascinating interview with Ron McLean on Sunday. Here’s a couple quotes:
(re Board of Governors representation) “I think that Canada needed a representative there, because we’re representing, you know, between 35 and 40 percent of the total revenue of the league.”
“If there’s a chance we’re going to be moving franchises, if there’s a chance we’re going to expand, I think that Canada need at least to be given a 50/50 shot at whether we come back into Canada with another franchise or not.”
Gary Bettman has previously denied that 33% of revenues are generated North of the border but on several occasions now we’re heard number between 1/3 and 40% thrown around by high-powered people who would have access to those figures.
There also seems to be growing support for another team in Canada if/when the league does look to expansion. This is something I expect we’ll hear a lot more of over the next little while.
Gillette also talked about giving all fifth-graders in the area a free ticket to a game in order to help cultivate the next generation of fans – and that there are thousands of tickets in the arena that are kept affordable for families. In Toronto you have to sell the naming rights to your children just to be able to take them to a game or two a year, and that’s if you can even get the tickets.
ON THE MOST DYNAMIC PLAYER IN HOCKEY…
Clearly it’s Alexander Ovechkin and he continues to amaze – scoring #45 in OT on Tuesday night and #46 on Wednesday to help lift the Caps into the division lead. James Mirtle has
an interesting post on how impressive OV’s season to date really is but that’s not the reason I brought up this topic.
The reason I brought this up is to mention a guy who seems to have fallen off the map. If you would have asked me a year ago who the most dynamic player in hockey is, I would have given serious consideration to Martin Havlat. At this time last year he was in the midst of a stretch where he scored seven goals and added four assists in just six games. That gave him 22 goals and 44 points in 34 games. Since then:
06-07: 22 games, 3 goals, 13 points
07-08: 24 games, 6 goals, 19 points
Nine goals in his last 46 games? What the heck happened to the dynamic Martin Havlat?
ON KANSAS CITY.. I MEAN NASHVILLE…
Hopefully this won’t generate too many angry e-mails from my friends in Nashville but I’m starting to get a bad feeling about this one. First we get this quote from David Freeman in the City Paper:
“It’s like the needle hasn’t moved since the rally. We’ve got every last person who gives a damn. It’s frustrating.”
And the article mentions that the lease is “expected to go to Metro Council next month” and then we have Bettman in Nashville talking about the rising salary cap. In John Glennon’s article in the Tennessean he writes:
Former Predators owner Craig Leipold reported losses of $12 million following the 2005-06 season and $15 million following the 2006-07 season, and that’s when the NHL salary cap stood at $39 million and $44 million, respectively.
It’s $50 million this season and apparently on the way up.
All NHL teams must produce payrolls within $16 million of the cap, which means the Predators will have to move above their current payroll of approximately $34 million next season.
Bettman said he believes the new local ownership group can help the Predators get out of the red, even if the cap rises next season.
“I’m hoping and expecting, and I’m optimistic, that increased attendance, increased sponsorship involvement, increased business -- that can be done with the enthusiastic support of the community -- will also be a factor in bridging that gap,” Bettman said.
So let’s work through the numbers together...
The Predators lost $12 million when the cap was $39 mil.
They lost $15 million when the cap was $44 mil and they averaged 13,815 paid per game.
This season the cap is $50.3 mil and the team has averaged 12,638 paid through 24 home games.
Next year the cap may go over $55 million, which would put the floor at $39 mil+ (coincidently that was the cap max coming out of the lockout).
Prior to the lockout the Preds spent $23 mil on salaries and we needed to miss a season of hockey because we needed to have 30 ‘stable’ franchises.
How are the Preds going to get out of the red when the league payroll average will be more than double what the team spent before the lockout?
And is there a chance that Metro rejects the lease changes, given the fact that all the rallies and the new ownership hasn’t sparked significant (or any) incremental interest in the team?
ON REVENUE SHARING…
While we’re talking about dollar and sense, there’s something else I’ve been thinking of that could even affect the moves that are made leading up to the deadline.
In order for a team to receive their full share of revenue sharing this year, they not only need to reach 13,125 paid per game but also must generate ‘a year-to-year revenue growth rate in excess of the League average revenue growth rate’.
I know that there are teams that really depend on their revenue sharing checks and playoff revenue would play a big role here I’d think. Both teams that made the playoffs last year (ie Nashville) and teams that missed (like a Columbus) may really need those extra home gates to meet and exceed last year’s revenues.
It would be interesting to see if a team would make a move to sacrifice a big part of their future in order to get that #8 spot – not only would they gain the extra playoff revenue (mostly profit) but also to secure their full revenue sharing amount. This is the first year that the revenue sharing criteria has come into play so we may see some uncharacteristic moves by teams that otherwise have been patient in the past.
Unfortunately I don’t have access to team revenues but based on everything I’ve read from many sources (including attendance numbers to date – albeit not paid attendance), I tried to guess which markets will experience significant revenue growth this year and which may be down or flat
++
Calgary, Edmonton, Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, Vancouver
New Jersey, Chicago, St. Louis, Buffalo, Anaheim, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, NY Islanders
+
Philadelphia, NY Rangers, Minnesota
Down or flat:
Boston, Carolina, Colorado, Columbus, Dallas, Detroit, Florida, Los Angeles, Nashville, Phoenix, San Jose, Tampa Bay, Washington
Again these grouping are very much just a guess and much will depend on revenues generated in the playoffs.
But due to the rising Canadian dollar, the new arena in New Jersey, resurgence of Chicago and St. Louis, the Cup run in Anaheim and the All-Star game in Atlanta it may be extremely tough for teams like Phoenix or Nashville to generate revenue growth above the league average – at least not without some playoff sellouts.
ON D-MAN DEALS…
I think the Phaneuf deal was a good one for both sides – the length and term is ok for me. It’s a fact that under the new CBA young players are getting big deals and I’ve said many times that I’d rather pay a young star through his 20s (in this case from 23 to 29) instead of locking up a 30+ UFA to a similar deal. The caveat is that defensemen usually peak later and have a longer prime, something we’ll look at another time.
As for Brian Campbell quite frankly the numbers thrown around do worry me a little bit. Campbell is six years older than Phaneuf and is apparently looking for a deal in a similar range (likely a little lower but still 5-6 years). I do like Campbell a lot but it’s worth noting that in the last two playoff years Campbell was third among Sabres’ d-men in ice-time behind both Lydman and Tallinder. For that money I want a guy who can eat up significant ice time in the playoffs and is an impact player in both ends. Now that all said if I’m the Sabres I find a way to get a deal done. Sometimes you just have to pay a little more than you want to and you can’t build a team by letting all your best players leave. Clearly Campbell has leverage and he’s using it, and this situation isn’t much different from Lubomir Visnovsky - I expect a deal in that ballpark.
ON RICK TOCCHET…
I know some will disagree but I think it’s great to have Tocchet back in the league, starting tonight. He has paid for his mistake and certainly deserves a second chance. This story was way overblown from the beginning and never did live up to any of the hype. And once again Wayne Gretzky showed why he is The Great One. Loyalty is a trait that is so important in life, and #99 stood by his long-time friend and kept his spot on the coaching staff open. Now I’m just waiting for some of those people who demanded that Gretzky stay home from Turin because of this ‘scandal’ to apologize for their rush to judgment. Not holding my breath on that one though.
Tocchet joins a streaking Coyotes team that is 21-12-4 (.622) since adding Bryzgalov to the lineup and they’re 11-4-3 in their last 18.
ON PLUS/MINUS…
The most meaningless stat in pro sports. Want proof?
+5
(Andy Wozniewski – 2nd on the Leafs)
That said, it does mean something that Lidstrom is +46, almost double his defense partner Rafalski – and next on the list among d-men is Kent Huskins at +18.
Good to see him finally getting some recognition this week and some MVP support.
ON COMPETITIVE BALANCE…
So I did a little research to see if this year’s standings really are tighter than ever. I looked at the last two years post-lockout and the two years prior.
This year as of February 4th there were 9 teams that weren’t in a Top 8 seed that were within 5 points of eighth place in their conference. By comparison, last year there were only 3 teams, the year prior there were 4. Also there were only three teams that were over 9 points out compared to 8, 5, 9, 7 teams over the past five seasons. Here’s a quick chart:
As for the reasons it’s hard to guess without doing more analysis – it’s not the extra points because the same number of points have been awarded this year to last (2.20 per game). It’s clear that a lot of teams are finally turning things around at the same time (St. Louis, Chicago, Phoenix, Columbus and Washington to name a few) and my first instinct would be to say it’s because they’ve all been drafting high and building for a while now so they’ve finally been able to thrive under new regimes but I’ll try and come back to this topic another time.
ON CEREMONIES…
Note to broadcasters – I want to see the special pre- and intermission ceremonies. Tonight Comcast thought it would be better to have two guys talking than to show us the team honouring Ron Hextall. And a couple weeks ago there was a special pre-game ceremony to honour the Montreal-Chicago rivalry and an impressive list of legendary players were in attendance. Instead of getting to see the introductions TSN stayed with the panel and showed a couple short clips of the honoured players. Maybe it’s just me but I love watching those things – NESN stayed with the Willie O’Ree ceremony a couple weeks ago in the first intermission and it was great. And I can’t say enough about the job MSG did with the Leetch jersey retirement.
ON LATE REGISTRATION…
One highly respected reporter/writer said that Forsberg is "contributing to what – short of a betting scandal – is the NHL’s worst nightmare, that a Stanley Cup can be bought".
Strange, there wasn’t a lot of outrage when Curtis Joseph signed not too long ago, and I get the sense that if Jeff O’Neill or (gasp) Jason Allison were somehow brought in by a team prior to the deadline there wouldn’t be a lot of complaints. This year we had unique situations with Niedermayer, Selanne and Forsberg. It isn’t something we’ll see on a regular basis because these players all sacrificed a great deal of money in order to take the time to decide on their futures. There’s also the risk of affecting team chemistry and not being able to fit in properly if a player returns to late.
Let’s not blow this situation out of proportion – these are three Hall of Famers who should be able to end their careers on their own terms. And the sport is better for having them playing in these playoffs. You see similar things in all sports - it's just usually not with top-calibre players.
ON HITTING FROM BEHIND…
Something really needs to be done because players are putting themselves in vulnerable positions and other players are hitting them without hesitation. In the two Habs games alone over the weekend two players were nailed from behind and were fortunate to escape serious injury. I’m all for mandatory suspensions – starting with one and escalating with each offense.
First hitting from behind penalty: 5-and-a-game, automatic one-game suspension
Second hitting from behind penalty: automatic three-game suspension
Third hitting from behind penalty: automatic ten-game suspension
The league would obviously still have the right to review and rescind the call if needed. Kovalev definitely deserved a punishment for his elbow on Hollweg but Hollweg deserved a very harsh penalty for his deliberate attempt to injure a Canadiens' player on his next shift.
ON THE LEAFS…
So I’m not going to go on my seemingly weekly rant about Toronto hitting rock bottom – needless to say that they’ve managed to dig even deeper and managed to make Richard Zednik look like a star.
But it’s worth mentioning that last year at the deadline when everyone thought the Leafs would be sellers, Ferguson ended up trading the team’s 2008 2nd round pick with Brendan Bell for Yanic Perreault and a pick. Of course the way things are looking that 2nd rounder in this very deep draft will essentially be a low first rounder and could even be as high as #31 overall. The last time a draft was as hyped (in 2003), the second round saw some great talents selected like Shea Weber, Patrice Bergeron, Matt Carle and Patrick O’Sullivan. The Leafs need to find a way to stockpile picks for this upcoming draft in order to start building properly for the future.
ON THE KINGS…
That tied in nicely to my next discussion point. This weekend Kings’ prospect Brian Boyle became the 29th player from that 2003 first round to play in the NHL. The lone player still developing is Hugh Jessiman who was also hyped as ‘Huge Specimen’ which led to him being selected by the Rangers ahead of Brown, Seabrook, Parise, Getzlaf, Burns, Richards, Perry, etc, etc.
Brian Boyle is a huge specimen too. He’s listed at 6’6 and he picked up goals in his first two NHL games – one on Marty Brodeur and the second coming at MSG. Not a bad way to start a career for a guy who graduated from Boston College and joined Manchester in the AHL late last year. He’s switched back a few times between center and defense and is now back to his natural position up the middle. His goal against the Rangers came off a nice feed by another young player, Matt Moulson. Peter Harrold has also stepped into the lineup and has played well on D.
Tonight during the Edmonton/Chicago game there was a TSN viewer poll:
Which rebuilding team will be a contender first?
Chicago – 61%
Edmonton – 20%
Toronto – 11%
Los Angeles – 8%
Kopitar, Cammalleri, Frolov, Brown, O’Sullivan, Johnson, Bernier, Hickey, Simmonds, Moller, Boyle, Purcell, Moulson. Lewis, Piskula, Cliché, Parse, Harrold, Gauthier, a top pick in this draft and Dallas’ first rounder – plus another four picks in the next two rounds (with assets to deal before the deadline)…
Only 8% of viewers picked LA? Less than Toronto?!? Come on TSN watchers!
ON MISC. NOTES…
I’m a strong believer in the single-owner structure for a pro sports franchise (assuming of course that owner has the financial wherewithal) so if you’re an Oilers fan you have to be pleased with the news that the team will be sold to Darryl Katz. You really can’t say enough about the Edmonton Investor’s Group whose determination and passion for the team and the City ensured that the Oilers stayed where they belonged through some tough times. Katz seems like the perfect choice to lead the franchise into the next chapter.
Back to the Leafs for a minute – nice to see Robbie Earl make his NHL debut and pickup his first point. Also great to see Pat Conacher brought in by Cliff Fletcher as a pro scout. Conacher was an important role player in LA’s run to the finals in 2003. He was an assistant coach in Phoenix for three years and a head coach in the AHL for two.
Another nice story – David Brine in Florida. Brine was first noticed by Mike Keenan on the reality show ‘Making the Cut’. Maybe if the league takes up my suggestion for the shootout contest next year someone can be discovered and brought in as a shootout specialist – I’m still surprised that teams don’t have players like that, especially given the minimal ice time that many fourth liners have been getting.
Remember when Mike Comrie was tearing up the league? Now, not so much. Comrie has gone ten games without a goal and has but 2 assists in that stretch – and he’s a -7.
Very interesting to see the NHLPA bringing in Mr. Lindquist as Hockey Related Revenue accounting consultant. When you bring in a huge name like that then you certainly mean business.
Mike Toth is leaving the TV studio at Sportsnet to focus on his radio work and his column on Sportsnet.ca. You guys know I’m a TSN guy – always have been and always will be. Give me old-school clips of Jim Van Horne delivering the news of the day and that’s all I need. No glitz, no glamour, no jokes. But I always liked Toth and his sense of humour and I wish him well.
Speaking of Jim Van Horne, I just discovered right now that he has his own site (jimvanhorne.com) and that he offers media training and one-on-one coaching. How cool is that? The chance to learn from one of the best in the business..
Interesting to see Gretzky coaching against Keenan the other night, just over twenty years after Gretzky played some of the best hockey of his life for Iron Mike.
Clutch performance by Iginla the other night. He definitely gets overshadowed by guys like Crosby, Ovechkin and Lecavalier but if you had to play one game tonight with the Cup on the line, there may not be another forward I’d take ahead of Jarome.
With all the talk about the Oilers possibly handing Anaheim a top pick for Dustin Penner, it’s worth noting a few things: 1) The Oilers sit in 25th overall today but are just 5 points behind the Rangers who are in 15th. With a strong finish the pick may not be as high as anticipated. 2) After a slow start Penner has emerged as one of the top Oilers on that young team. This is still just his second year in the league and I still think there’s a great chance he scores 150 goals over the course of the five-years. And finally 3) There’s another situation worth watch too – the Panthers traded their 08 first rounder to Nashville in the Vokoun trade and they’re currently tied with Edmonton at 55 points. Most people forget that back in November of 1997 Florida dealt their ’98 first rounder in return for Viktor Kozlov. Who ended up being selected with that pick?
Vincent Lecavalier.
The Daily Show will be likely on a brief hiatus, returning on Monday. I’ll try and write before that but I’m not making any promises. About 4,000 words should tie you over until then anyways..
A short explanation for those who care - in addition to my demanding full-time job and this column I’ve also been working on my CMA designation over the past few years and this weekend is my final in-class session. On top of all the work I have to do for the weekend, you can imagine how unhappy I am that I’ll be forced to miss most of Hockey Day in Canada (although I’ll catch-up on PVR).
Forget ‘Family Day’ – somebody needs to make ‘Hockey Day’ a national holiday North of the border.
I’m thinking of bringing in writers to keep you updated when I’m unavailable – let me know if you’d be interested in writing and/or reading some other perspectives.
Have a great day/weekend,
Danny –
[email protected]
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