Over the next few weeks, I will be looking at different off-season question marks that the Flyers will have to answer in training camp and throughout the season.
Today's question: How and where does Steve Downie fit in the Flyers starting lineup?
It's a question that neither
John Stevens nor
Paul Holmgren can answer at the moment.
But if the regular season were to start today and the Flyers opened the season with a fully healthy lineup, chances are that the Flyers' 2005 first-round pick would find himself in the same place where he spent much of the stretch drive and the playoffs: as a coach's decision scratch.
The numbers game works against Downie right now. There are four centers (Mike Richards, Daniel Briere, Jeff Carter and Glen Metropolit) and six wingers (Simon Gagne, Scott Hartnell, Joffrey Lupul, Mike Knuble, Scottie Upshall and Arron Asham) who are virtual locks to be in the opening night starting lineup.
Rookie Claude Giroux has the inside track to earning a starting spot in the lineup, playing either on the Briere or Carter line (personally, I prefer the latter). He would have to have an exceptionally poor camp to end up on the Phantoms, and I don't see that happening. So now we're up to 11 starting forwards.
Enforcer Riley Cote is likely to continue to dress as the 12th and final starting forward, at least during the regular season.
Guess who that leaves as a scratch, no matter what he does during the preseason: Steve Downie. Barring a trade of another winger before the season (which remains a distinct possibility with the Flyers' cap problems), the only way Downie would start on opening night would be if there's an injury or if someone played himself out of a job in camp.
Of course, the situation could very easily change over the course of the long season. Downie will have to be patient and make the most of his chances when they come.
Meanwhile, Paul Holmgren has told the media that while Downie has made strides in the offseason to improve one his main weaknesses as a rookie -- his conditioning level -- he "still needs to be better" to meet the extremely high standards of physical fitness demanded of NHL players.
That begs another question: Would Downie be better off starting the season on the Phantoms rather than as the Flyers' 13th forward? Initially, I would have said no, but I've changed my mind as I 've thought more about it.
Generally speaking, I'm not a huge believer in the AHL as a development league for forwards projected to eventually become more than meat-and-potatoes role players in the NHL. But Downie more or less is a role-playing prospect with the potential to be a bit more than that.
Five years ago, I wrote a
lengthy analysis for Hockey's Future explaining why I'd come to that belief based on historical and current evidence. I later looked at
NHL defensemenand was surprised to find similar results (I had expected to find many more established NHL defensemen who spent significant time in the AHL. Only with
goaltenders did I find that many top-end players needed significant minor-league seasoning. I have not subsequently repeated the research exercise, but probably should do so at some point to get an updated group of players.
At any rate, the more I think about Downie, the more I think he could be the type of player who could benefit from additional time in the minor leagues. Despite the fact that he has some offensive upside and was a first round pick, his style of play more closely fits the profile of the type of forward who might benefit from spending up to to a combined full season in the AHL. He played 21 games for the Phantoms last year, and could probably use another 25 games or so. There are still a lot of rough edges to his game.
Forget about offensive numbers. I have no doubt Downie (who found the time to score five goals and 17 points in his 21 games with the Phantoms while quickly racking up 114 penalty minutes) would produce if given time on a Phantoms scoring line and powerplay duty. AHL scoring stats are pretty meaningless in terms of translating to the NHL, where the pace of play is faster and the quality of defensemen higher. Playing in the AHL won't make him a better NHL offensive player than he'd be staying at the top level and working his way onto a line with scoring expectations.
The areas where I think Downie could use more time in the minors are in terms of working on his two-way awareness while continuing to refine his conditioning and skating for the pro game. To accomplish this, he may need more ice time than he's likely to get with the big club. At least that's the way it looks right now.
Arguably, Downie's oft mentioned penalty-trouble and anger-management issues would be more severely tested in the minor leagues in the AHL than the NHL. The reasoning along those lines goes that the minors remain more of a cutthroat, desperate atmosphere where players will do anything to get noticed. After returning from his suspension at the start of last season, Downie actually did a decent job in the NHL at keeping his cool -- he didn't do as well in the AHL during his stay with the Phantoms.
But for all that's been said and written about Downie's discipline issues on the ice, I think he'll eventually learn how far he can push the envelope without hurting his club or losing his effectiveness (otherwise he won't have a career at all because he's not the most naturally gifted player). I don't really see that as an NHL vs. AHL learning process for him.
Rather, it's the universal hockey issue of refining one's overall game to develop from a standout junior player into a versatile NHL player where I think Downie would benefit from more time on the Phantoms.
****
For tomorrow's blog, I was going to create an off-season summary, listing all the changes that have taken place since the end of the season.
But someone else has already done all the work.
Flyers fan message-board veteran ZZeke (a fixture at the Flyers' SkateZone whom some Hockeybuzz readers know) wrote up a comprehensive summary today, for which he's given me permission to use here.
Thanks ZZeke: I owe you one for saving me a lot of time! I simply have done a cut-and-paste with a few minor edits.
Philadelphia Flyers 2008-09 (As Of August 22, 2008)
ADDITIONS
NHL roster
Ossi Vaananen, D (UFA-Djurgarden, Sweden)
Steve Eminger, D (Trade-Wsh)
Glen Metropolit, C (UFA-Bos)
Arron Asham, RW/LW (UFA-NJ)
AHL Additions
Sean Curry, D (UFA-Bos)
Patrik Hersley, D (Trade-LA)
Tim Ramholt, D (Trade-Cgy)
Danny Syvret, D (Trade-Edm)
Ned Lukacevic, LW (Trade-LA)
Nate Raduns, RW (UFA-SJ) (Worcester AHL)
NHL Subtractions
R.J. Umberger, W/C (Trade-CBJ)
Vaclav Prospal, LW/C (Trade-TB)
Sami Kapanen, RW/LW (Retired NHL - player/owner KalPa Kuopio, Finland)
Patrick Thoresen, LW (RFA/UFA - Signed with HC Lugano, Switzerland)
Denis Tolpeko, C/W (Dynamo Moscow, KHL -- had one season left on Flyers contract)
Jason Smith, D (UFA-Ott)
Jaroslav Modry, D (UFA-Leberec, Czech Republic)
AHL Substractions
Denis Gauthier, D (Trade-LA)
Ryan Potulny, C/LW (Trade-Edm)
Stefan Ruzicka, RW (RFA-Spartak Moscow of the KHL, Russia)
Triston Grant, LW (Trade-Nas)
Kyle Greentree, LW (Trade-Cgy)
Rory Fitzpatrick, D (UFA-Fla)
Martin Grenier, D (UFA-Barys Astana of the KHL, Russia)
Lars Jonsson, D (UFA-Brynas IF, Sweden)
Janne Niskala, D (Acquired via trade from Nas, then traded by Flyers to TB)
Chad Anderson, D (UFA-Mtl)
REMAINING UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENTS
NHL
Jim Dowd, C
Jesse Boulerice, RW/LW
AHL
Darren Reid, RW
Rejean Beauchemin, G
Martin Houle, G
Scott Munroe, G
REMAINING RESTRICTED FREE AGENTS
Nate Guenin, D (Unoffically has signed a one-year, two-way contract)
SIGNINGS / RE-SIGNINGS / TRADES
Flyers Transactions - June to September 2008 (As Of August 22, 2008)
DATE - TRANSACTION
July 23, 2008 Signed defenseman Kevin Marshall to an entry level contract.
July 22, 2008 Signed right wing Joffrey Lupul to a four-year contract extension.
July 7, 2008 Signed UFA right wing Arron Asham to a two-year contract.
July 3, 2008 Re-signed RFA defenseman Randy Jones to a two-year contract.
July 3, 2008 Re-signed UFA left wing Riley Cote to a three-year contract.
July 1, 2008 Traded defenseman Denis Gauthier and a 2010 second-round pick to the Los Angeles Kings for defenseman Patrik Hersley and left wing Ned Lukacevic.
July 1, 2008 Signed UFA center Glen Metropolit to a two-year contract.
July 1, 2008 Signed UFA left wing Sean Curry to a two-year contract.
July 1, 2008 Signed UFA right wing Nate Raduns to a one-year contract.
July 1, 2008 Signed UFA defenseman Ossi Vaananen to a one-year contract.
June 30, 2008 Traded defenseman Janne Niskala to the Tampa Bay Lightning for a 2009 sixth-round pick.
June 30, 2008 Acquired defenseman Tim Ramholt from the Calgary Flames for left wing Kyle Greentree.
June 29, 2008 Signed defenseman Steve Eminger to a one-year contract.
June 27, 2008 Signed center Jeff Carter to a three-year contract.
June 25, 2008 Acquired defenseman Janne Niskala from the Nashville Predators for left wing Triston Grant and a 2009 seventh-round pick.
June 21, 2008 Acquired a 2009 seventh-round pick from the Anaheim Ducks for a 2008 seventh-round pick.
June 21, 2008 Acquired defenseman Steve Eminger and a 2008 third-round pick from the Washington Capitals for a 2008 first-round pick.
June 20, 2008 Traded RFA winger/center R.J. Umberger and a 2008 fourth-round pick to Columbus for a 2008 first-round pick (Colorado's pick) (selected defenseman Lucas Sbisa) and a 2008 third-round pick (selected defenseman Marc-Andre Bourdon).
June 18, 2008 Traded pending UFA center Vaclav Prospal to the Tampa Bay Lightning for a 2008 seventh-round pick and a 2009 conditional pick.
June 7, 2008 Acquired defenseman Danny Syvret from the Edmonton Oilers for center Ryan Potulny.
June 3, 2008 Announced the retirement of right wing Sami Kapanen.
Non-Player Transactions
August 14, 2008 Agreed to terms with coach John Stevens on a two-year contract extension.
August 11, 2008 Named Chris Therien radio analyst. Announced Brian Propp would not return as radio analyst.
August 7, 2008 Named Craig Berube NHL assistant coach.
July 15, 2008 Named Eric Desjardins player development coach.
July 7, 2008 Signed general manager Paul Holmgren to a three-year contract extension.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
Join the Discussion:
»