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Meltzer's Musings |
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March 8, 2006, 1:05 PM ET
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Prospect Development: Beyond the Numbers
By Bill Meltzer
From 1998 to 2003, I was the Philadelphia Flyers editor for hockeysfuture.com. During that time, I realized there's an almostuniversal tendency for fans to overrate the prospects in their favorite organization.
In the post-lockout world of the NHL, young players are more important than ever. So it's helpful to know the criteriaNHL teamsuse project player development. From conversations with scouts, these are the areas team on when assessing the progress of their junior, college, European and minor-league players:
1) Has there been a year-to-year refinement of the players' skills and consistency? At age 18, it's OK if the player's skating stride, ability to adapt to different linemates, positional play and/or defensiveawareness still need work. And it's almost a given that players will need several years to grow into their frames and add strength.
2) How does this player now compare to others his age at his current level of competition? In other words, there's a different performance standardexpected a 19-year old in the OHL than a soon-to-be-overage player in that league, and
3) What is the players' position and likely future role --if any-- in the NHL? As a rule of thumb, defensemen and goalies take longer to mature than forwards.
Noticewhat's missing? The players' draft position and statistics. That's for good reason. Being a first or second-round pick and/or putting up impressive-looking stats in juniors or the minors are rarely indicators of a players' professional longevity or NHL-level offensive potential. Draft position alone has no bearing on the player's eventual upside, and offensive dominance at lower levels is almost a pre-requisite for any future long-term NHL forward who is not a single-purpose enforcer (a dying breed).
On the flip side, regardless of a player's so-called tools,the lack ofoffensive dominance athockey's lower levels is almost ALWAYS a reliablepredictorof aprospect's inability todevelop into anNHL offensive impact player. If you hope formiracle turnarounds, you'llwait in vain. They're exceptionally rare.
For this exercise, I'll use current Flyers' prospect Ben Eager asthe example.
Some fans and announcers claim he has the potential to become a decent goal scoring power forward at the NHL level, due to his physical tools, a two-goal gamefor the Flyers earlier this season andthe fact he's a former first round draft pick by Phoenix. However,the overwhelming weight of hockey history stronglysuggeststhat hisceiling isthat of a3rd or 4th line"energy" player.
There's nothing wrong with that. Every team needs those sorts of players. If Eagerdevelops greaterconsistencyin his game and reduces his tendency to take undisciplined penalties, he could have a long, useful career. For several straight games earlier this season, his forechecking presence and physical play gave the Flyers a real lift. The 3 goals he scored (including a two-goal game) were gravy.His effective play in January washopefully a flash of good things to come for him.
So what I'm about to say is in no way intended to pick on Ben Eageror say he's not apotentialNHL-worthy prospect.
But the fact is he's very, very unlikely to be a 15 goal scorer at the NHL level, much less a 20 goal scorer.And that's not just because he has only put up 4 goals on a relatively weak Philadelphia Phantoms team this season. It's because:
1) He was never a dominant or even a point-per-game offensive player at even the junior hockey level, let alone his AHL career to date. Eager's best junior output was 25 goals and 52 points (along with 204 PIMs) in 61 games. He had 7 goals as a Phantoms rookie last year. You won't find a single future 20+NHL goal scorer with that sort of lower-leveloutput,and
2) He's in his second AHL season.It's rare to find a future first- or second-lineNHL forward who neededmultiple years of seasoning in the minors.
In my next blog, I'm going to discuss in detail the value of AHL developmentfor players of different positions and team roles. For this installment, however, let'sexplore the firstpoint.
It's an historical fact that power forwards bloom later at the NHL level (and often decline around age 30, due to the pounding they take).These guys often start out as checkers or enforcers and, in their mid- to late-20s, emerge as scorers. However,almost without variation, these playerswere oncewell-above-average goal scorers at the junior, college, and/or AHL levels before climbing their way up in the NHL.
As some historical reference points-- not as direct"comparison" players--here are the best pre-NHL seasons of somenotable NHL power forwards (of which I lumped in some lower PIM players) and enforcers of the last 15 years.
Cam Neely (WHL, 72 GP, 56 G, 120 PTS, 130 PIM)
Rick Tocchet (OHL, 64 GP, 44 G, 108 PTS, 209 PIM)
John LeClair (NCAA, 33 GP, 25 G, 45 PTS, 58 PIM)
Dave Andreychuk (OHL, 67 GP, 58 G, 101 PTS, 71 PIM)
Scott Mellanby (NCAA, 32 GP, 22 G, 44 PTS, 89 PIM)
Donald Brashear (AHL, 62 GP, 38 G, 66 PTS, 250 PIM)
Tie Domi (OHL, 60 GP, 22 G, 43 PTS, 292 PIM)
Sandy McCarthy (QMJHL, 62 GP, 39 G, 90 PTS, 326 PIM)
Darren McCarty (OHL, 65 GP, 55 G, 127 PTS, 177 PIM)
Martin Lapointe (QMJHL, 35 GP, 38 G, 89 PTS, 41 PIM)
Bob Probert (OHL, 65 GP, 35 G, 73 PTS, 189 PIM)
Grant Marshall (OHL, 61 GP, 32 G, 83 PTS 132 PIM)
Turner Stevenson (WHL, 57 GP, 36 G 63 PTS 222 PIM)
Ronnie Stern (QMJHL, 56 GP, 32 G, 71 PTS, 266 PIM)
IanLaperriere,Darcy Tucker andJason Wiemerare three players to whom Eager has specifically been compared.All three were higher-end goal scorersthan Eager at some point before they made it to the pros.
Darcy Tucker (WHL, 64 GP, 64 G, 137 PTS, 94 PIM)
Jason Wiemer (WHL, 72 GP, 45 G, 96 PTS, 236 PIM-- first round pick)
Ian Laperriere (QMJHL, 60 GP, 44 G, 140 PTS, 188 PIM)
Assorted otherswholater advanced toshort- or long-term roles as NHLpower forwards,pests/checkers orenforcers:
Todd Bertuzzi (OHL, 62 GP, 54 G 119 PTS, 168 PIM (PIMs from a prior season)-- first rounddraft pick)
Brad May (OHL, 34 GP, 37 G, 69 PTS, 304 PIM (prior season)--first round pick)
Wayne Primeau (OHL, 66 GP, 34 G, 96 PTS, 84 PIM-- first round pick)
Chris Dingman (WHL, 66 GP, 40 G, 83 PTS, 201 PIM-- first round pick)
Jason Botterill (NCAA, 37 GP, 32 G, 57 PTS, 143 PIM-- first round pick)
Scott Parker (WHL, 71 GP, 30 G, 52 PTS, 243 PIM-- first round pick)
Kirk Maltby (OHL, 64 GP, 50 G, 91 PTS, 99 PIM)
Sean Avery (OHL, 55 GP, 28 G, 84 PTS, 215 PIM)
Matthew Barnaby (QMJHL, 33 GP, 26 G, 61 PTS, 217 PIM)
Darren Langdon (ECHL, 54 GP, 23 G, 45 PTS, 429 PIM)
Craig Berube (WHL, 70 GP, 25 G, 69 PTS, 191 PIM)
Chris Simon (OHL, 57 GP, 36 G, 74 PTS, 146 PIM)
Todd Ewen (WHL, 60 GP, 28 G, 52 PTS, 289 PIM)
Stu Grimson (WHL, 71 GP, 24 G, 56 PTS, 248 PIM)
Darrin Kimble (WHL, 67 GP, 35 G, 71 PTS, 307 PIM)
Scott Daniels (WHL, 53 GP, 28 G, 59 PTS, 171 PIM)
Nick Kypreos (OHL, 64 GP, 62 G, 97 PTS, 112 PIM)
Eager's bestpre-pro season production-wise didn't come close to any of theseplayers, except for Domi. Yes, Eager was originally a first round pick, but so wasex-Flyer Shawn Antoski-- a big guy who could fly and loved to fight, but proved tohave zero offensive touch.He and Eagerhad similar top junior years:
Shawn Antoski (OHL, 59 GP, 25 G, 56 PTS, 201 PIM)
Ben Eager (OHL, 61 GP, 25 G, 52 PTS, 204 PIM)
Matt Zultek was another 1strounddraftee (later re-drafted in the2nd round) oncetouted as a "future NHL power forward."Zultek passed through the Flyers system andeventually becamean ECHL force, buthas never been more than a marginal AHLer. His best one-year junior totals wereslightly superior to Eager's at 56 GP, 33 G, 66 PTS and, the year before, 156 PIM before blowing out his knee. In my opinion,Zultek was never a serious NHL power forward prospect.The injury setback essentially finished him aseven a marginal NHL role playing prospect.I bring this up because, when the Flyers first acquired Zultek's rights from Boston, quite a few Flyers' fans reacted as though the team had just stolen a future impact player, not taken a flier on a project player.
Now let's look atsomeother first- and second-rounddraftees with similar junior or minor league production toEager's.Allreached the NHL at some pointsome 1st/2nd round "power forward/ enforcer" prospects with similar or lower early offensive production to Eager's:
Alek Stojanov (OHL, 62 GP, 25 G, 45 PTS 179 PIM-- draft year he was 1st round pick)
Andrei Nazarov (IHL(at age 18), 71 GP, 15 G, 33 PTS, 64 PIM--1st round pick)
Steve Staios (OHL, 65 GP, 11 G, 53 PTS, 122 PIM-- 2nd round pick)
Georges Laraque (QMJHL, 62 GP, 19 G, 41 PTS, 259 PIM-- 2nd round pick)
The only recent player of note I've found who everwound up scoring morein a season as an NHLer than he did as a junior or minor leaguer was Gino Odjick, who once scored 16 with the Canucks (but never topped 7 any otherNHL year) and whose best junior production was 12 goals. Dave Brown came close, twice hitting double digit goals-- 10 and 12-- with the Flyers after doing no better than 17 in theminors and 11 in his one full junior season.
Actually, there are more examples oflower-level offensive players who stepped up theirPIM totals in the pros after realizing their offensive games wouldn't be their meal tickets. Ex-Flyer drafteeKypreos leaps fastest to mind. He was a low 100 PIM playerin junior and AHL hockey.He was aregular scorer at those levels, in fact, as shown above.But once he realizedhis fists were what would keep him in the NHL, he started dropping the gloves much more frequently. In fact, he once topped 300PIMs inan NHL season. I doubt we'll ever see players approach 300 PIMs in today's NHL, so future players in the Kypreos mold will have to find more diversified roles (checking, penalty killing, etc.) to have prolonged stays in the NHL.
Next time around, we'll put the "world's best development league," the AHL, under the microscope.
