For constant lunacy involving more than just rumors follow me at twitter.com/eklund.
Quick Hits...
As I wrote this morning there is some big stuff going on currently. See the blog before this one for my early morning "wake up text messages."
Below are some players that I am updating on the Rumor Chart and that I have heard mentioned this morning with the teams. I had a moment of clarity in trying to get across the e-system concept...I think this may answer some of your questions...
First the players I am chasing today...
#1 Jay Bo. I keep hearing that Jay Bo won't be a deadline deal and will either be extended or moved as much as week prior to the deadline. The Flyers are the far and away favorite in my opinion.
#2 Vinny. It was written today elsewhere that the Lightning are telling teams who call regarding Vinny and Martin St. Louis that the players are not available. That is 50% correct and I am 100% sure of that, and although Marty isn't likely to be moved this Lightning ownership is focused completely on doing whatever is needed to improve this team.
Now for some players with e-ratings next to them:
Jere Lehtinen to Ottawa (e2), NJ (e3)
Matthew Lombardi to Buffalo (e3), Montreal (e2), Carolina (e2), Atlanta (e2), NY Islanders (e1)
Tim Connolly to Calgary (e3), Vancouver (e4), and Dallas (e2)
Brendan Morrison to Nj (e2), Buffalo (e1)
Colby Armstrong to Pitt (e3), Calgary (e3), Edmonton (e2)
Marian Gaborik to Montreal (e3), Ottawa (e3), Washington (e2)
Ville Koistinen to Philly (e3), Atlanta (e2), Buffalo (e2), Tampa (e3)
Mark Recchi to Pitt (e4), Calgary (e1), Minnesota (e2), Montreal (e3)
Derek Morris to Buffalo (e3), Philly (e3), Washington (e2)
Tomas Kaberle to Pittsburgh (e2), Buffalo (e3), Washington (e2)
Olli Jokinen to Montreal (e2), Calgary (e3), Buffalo (e3), NJ (e3), Philly (e1), Pitt (e1)
Michal Rozsival to Dallas (e3)
Ryan Whitney to Toronto (e2), Colorado (e3), LA Kings (e3), Edmonton (e3)
Erik Cole to Pittsburgh (e4), Boston (e3), Washington (e3)
Tkachuk to Boston (e4), Pitt (e3)
Now what do all of those e's mean?
The E-system should not be used to decipher how likely it is a trade will go down. People (and even players) often freak out when they hear an (e4) next to their name. I have tried many ways to explain this system but I think I finally have come up with the best way to explain it!
So here goes. Almost all of the confusion surrounding the system comes from the misunderstanding that The E-system was designed to tell you if a trade was or wasn't likely. These are rumors. If they happen they happen..
It was designed to give you some clues as to who my sources are. It could stand to reason that the higher the e-rating, the closer the source to the situation, the more attention should be paid to the rumor.
THE E RATING RATES THE SOURCE TELLING ME THE INFORMATION NOT THE RUMOR ITSELF
e1: information from a single source not connected directly to the teams or players involved.
e2: info from 2 or more e1's.
e3: info from a single source somehow connected directly to the teams or players involved either directly or getting it directly first hand.
e4: info from at least 2 e3's.
e5: info from a source that the rumor has become a done deal
What I do is report on discussions. It is that simple.....You can also look at it this way...
e1's and e2's are rumors of discussions, since no one giving me the information is actually a part of those discussions. The people telling me are hearing information but they are not telling me that they are getting "first hand" or first generation information.
e3's and e4's are people involved in the discussion directly telling me or someone once removed that that these discussions are going on.
So right now the rumors of Lecavalier to Montreal and Lecavalier to the NY Rangers are both e4s. Because they are by definition coming from multiple e3's who have told me that the discussion have occured.
So in a way e1's and e2's are sources telling me rumors and e3's and e4's more symbolize sources telling me known discussions...Since in the case of e3's and e4's I am being told directly that these players are being considered. So even though the e-system is set up to give clues on sources, those sources by the nature of the closeness to the players or teams involved tell you much more.
And after saying all of that, again it is important to remember that I report on discussions that may or may not lead to an actual deal. Discussions happen everyday and although I talk to many, many people I still only hear only bits and pieces of some of the possible deals that are being talked about or considered.
GMs will be the first to tell you that 95% of the deals they discuss never occur. I bet that I only hear maybe 10-20% of what the GM's are talking about. So the only way a "rumor" I hear will turn into an actual deal, like most recently occurred with Schneider in Montreal, one of those 5% of the discussions that a GM would have had to have been in that 10-20% that I hear and report to you.
Every deadline or UFA Day, with any luck, there will be a few of the Schneider deals, but I don't get emotionally attached to them since there is a great deal of randomness involved.
As for e5's, they are a different story. Only three that I have reported HAVEN'T actually occured and this happened due to wrong information (flat out being lied to in one instance) There have now been over 100 e5's....actual trades, signings, hirings or firings that I have been among the first to break.
But to me, as much fun and ego satisfaction I get when I am the one breaking news to all of you, I realized long ago that it was too stressful to make "breaking trades" my focus. The site used to suffer from this as I would find myself missing good information on discussions in the race to "break an e5."
What I have learned over time is that (in general) the vast majority of e5's I get are just flat out told to me when they occur. Someone is simply going to call me and tell me a deal is done, and likely within seconds of my peers at TSN getting the same information.
So my main work that I focus on is getting as much information regarding discussions as possible to you all for you to chew on. And that's what I enjoy. Finding out something that I can share with you. It is a very rewarding and a lot of fun.....Like telling a good friend something that you know that will interest them.
Thanks for listening, and I hope this helps.
Working on more and updating the Rumour Chart...
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