One of the more interesting off-season debates among Flyers fans this offseason is whether the club will be able to better its regular-season goal differential from last season. The club has bolstered the blueline, so that should help cut down on 225 goals the team allowed last season. But will the club be able to equal or surpass the 236 goals scored last season?

Let's work backwards here and start with an area where the club arguably overachieved last season: goals from the supporting cast.

In 2009-10, the Flyers got a combined 22 goals from Dan Carcillo (12) and Arron Asham (10). It is realistic to expect another double-digit goal season from Carcillo if he continues to move around the lineup and receive occasional power play time as he did at certain points last year. On the flip side, new addition Jody Shelley has virtually zero chance of coming close to Asham's output from last season. So we can expect a drop here of about 7 to 10 goals. Let's call it a drop of 8 goals (another 12 for Carcillo, 2 for Shelley).

The club also got a combined 20 goals from Darroll Powe (9), Blair Betts (8) and Ian Laperriere (3). That's about the upper limit of what those two players are capable of scoring, although Betts is likely to miss the first few weeks of the season. Laperriere can certainly pot another 3 goals or score an extra goal or two. I suspect that the trio will fall a little short of combining for 20 goals again this year. Let's conservatively pencil them in for 15; a drop of 5 goals.

So far, we're down 13 goals as we reach a more crucial area of scoring depth: goals from the defense. The Flyers' defense last year chipped in a combined 32 goals, led by 10 from Chris Pronger, 6 apiece from Kimmo Timonen and Matt Carle, and 5 from Braydon Coburn. With the addition of Andrej Meszaros, I think it's realistic to expect a modest increase in this output. Let's say the Flyers get 35 goals from the D this season, leaving the club 10 goals off last season's standard as we move on to players expected to carry more of the offensive load.

Last season, the Flyers got a combined 31 goals from Claude Giroux (16) and James Van Riemsdyk (15). It would be very disappointing if neither player significantly increases that total this season. Let's conservatively say the two young players combine for 41 this season. That would put the club even with the total output from last season's supporting cast.

Now we move up to the forwards expected to skate in the top six at even strength. Again, we'll work backwards. Prior to Ville Leino's huge playoff run, he only dressed for 13 regular season games for the Flyers after coming over from Detroit. He scored 2 goals. Although Leino may not be able to sustain the type of play that led him to produce 7 goals and 21 points in 19 playoff tilts, I think everyone will agree that, in a second line role over a full season, he is capable of generating much more than the 6 goals and 11 points he produced in Detroit and Philly last season. He seems capable of a 20-goal season, but let's error on the side of conservatism again and say Leino produces 15 goals. Even when you factor in the 2 goals Mika Pyorala scored during his time with the big club last season, that leaves the Flyers 11 goals up from last season.


After four straight 20-plus goal seasons, including a career-high 30 in 2008-09, Scott Hartnell slumped to 14 goals last season. After sorting out personal issues that were affecting both his practice habits and game performance, Hartnell redeemed himself with a strong playoff (8 goals, 17 points in 23 games). Based on his histor, his playoff bounceback and the fact that he's at an age (28) where he should be in his prime, I think it's fair to expect Hartnell to have a more productive season. Let's conservatively say he goes from 14 to 20 goals during the regular season. That leaves the Flyers 17 goals up from least season.

Before his strong stretch drive and playoff run, Simon Gagne struggled mightily last season after sustaining a groin pull during Team Canada's pre-Olympic camp. He wound up producing 17 goals in 58 games during the regular season. Although no one really knows what to expect from Gagne's enigmatic replacement, Nikolai Zherdev, it would take a truly disastrous season for him not to at least match Gagne's goal -scoring output from last season. Whether he can step up in the playoffs and match Gagne's 9 playoff goals from this past spring is another matter entirely. But as far as the regular season goes, let's go with a scenario where Zherdev disappoints and scores just 18 goals. That puts the club 18 goals up, with the potential for significantly more.

Danny Briere's huge 12-goal, 30-point playoff run helped people forget that he had a very ordinary 26-goal, 53-point regular season last year. Let's say he scores just 2 additional goals over the course of the 2010-11 season. That still puts the club 20 goals up on last season as we move to the two most important forwards on the roster.

Jeff Carter enters the 2010-11 season with a lot of incentive to play the best hockey of his career. He is playing for a long-term contract and looking to produce a season much closer to his 2008-09 campaign than his excessively streaky performance from last season. I expect him to at least flirt with a 40-goal season but let's say he goes from 33 goals last season to 36 this year. The team is now 23 goals ahead of last year's pace.

Mike Richards has now had back-to-back 30 goal seasons. I would not be surprised if he dropped slightly in goal production from last season (31) but saw his assist total rise sharply from last season's disappointing 31 helpers to something closer to the 50-assist range he achieved in 20008-09 and flirted with the previous season (47). Let's say he has a 27-goal season while significantly increasing his overall point total via assists.

That would put the Flyers on a course to score about 255-goals this season. Last season's 236-goal output was good enough for third in the Eastern Conference. By way of comparison, the Penguins (257 goals) were second in the Conference to Washington's otherworldly output of 318 goals.

If the Flyers were to pair a 19-goal increase with a even a modest 10 goal decrease on the 225 goals the team gave up last season, the club should have little trouble producing a 100-plus point season in the standings and standing a good chance at winning the Atlantic Division. No matter how you slice it, the real fly in the ointment is whether the goaltending will be good enough, both during the season and into the postseason.

****

There have been some encouraging reports from Sweden about the play of goaltender Joacim "Sunshine" Eriksson at his first pre-Elitserien training camp for Skellefteå AIK. The 20-year-old has been tabbed to start the club's first preseason game.

Keep in mind, however, that Eriksson is competing against an established Elitserien goaltender, 35-year-old Andreas Hadelöv, who has been a workhorse for SAIK and helped lead the team to the semifinals in the playoffs this past season.

SAIK's head coach, Anders Forsberg, has pledged to give Eriksson his share of playing time this season but it remains to be seen how the games will be split between the Elitserien rookie (a second-season pro) and 13-season veteran Hadelöv. If nothing else, the competition should be good for Jocke's development, even though his games may be limited at times this season.

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