So, how important is the first month of the season really?
When I wrote my story on Sunday calling the Blues "The Best Team in the NHL as of Now" it was after a fascinating look into the standings, but not based on points.
The NHL standings are very hard to get a grasp on this early. When Chicago has played 14 games, and the Blues have played 9 games how can you really look at the NHL Point Standings and really get any perspective on just how well your team is playing compared to the competition?
For example, a look at the NHL standings on NHL.com right now shows the defending Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks as the second best team in the West (and second in the NHL) with 15 points. The Hawks lead the Central Division by a point over the Blues, but the Blues have FIVE games-in-hand. I always hated the concept of "games-in-hand" because they sort of imply the team with less games played will win those games. Will the Blues win all five games? Of course not.
So that's why I prefer to look at what I call "Points Percentage."
"Points Percentage" takes the points a team "has obtained" and divides it by the points the team "could have obtained." (I know this is referred to in baseball as "Winning Percentage" and given as a 3-digit number. The reason I call it "Points Percentage" and make it a two digit number with a decimal point is because, in the NHL, teams get points for OT losses as well as wins....and percentages should really be from 0-100%)
To me, this is the only way to look at team vs. team performance at any given point in a season where teams have always played an uneven number of games (until the final game has been played in April.) So, regardless of how many games have been played, the "Points Percentage" tells you the exact success rate of an NHL team. It tells you how many points they have taken home with them, and perhaps more interestingly, it tells you how many points they have left behind.
Perhaps the best examples in the NHL right now are Chicago and Boston.
On Chicago...
According to the NHL Standings the Hawks are doing great...right? Chicago is second in the NHL, second in the Conference, and leading the Central with 15 points. But the Hawks have played 14 games, so they could have obtained 28 points...Therefore the Hawks Points Percentage is 53.6%.
According to the Points Percentage standings, 53.6% puts the Hawks at 11th on the Western Conference, 20th in the NHL, and LAST in the Central Division.
On Boston...
According to the NHL Standings, the Bruins are in a playoff battle at 7th in the Conference, 17th in the NHL, and 2nd in the Northeast. The Bruins have 12 points, but have only played 8 games...so they could have obtained 16 points were they perfect. The Bruins "Points Percentage" is 75%
75% puts them at #1 in the Conference, #2 in the NHL, and of course leading their division.
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So that being said, let's look at the standings listed by teams actual success rates so far...
The NHL Points Percentage Standings
(actual standings ranking in parenthesis)
Western Conference
1. St. Louis 77.8% (4)
2. LA Kings 72.7% (1)
3. Vancouver 60.0% (8)
4. Detroit 72.2% (6)
5. Nashville 65.0% (5)
6. San Jose 61.1% (11)
7. Dallas 60.0%(7)
7. Columbus 60.0% (10)
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9. Colorado 59.1% (3)
10. Calgary 54.5% (9)
11. Chicago 53.6% (2)
12. Minnesota 50.0% (12)
13. Phoenix 45.0% (13)
14. Edmonton 44.4% (15)
15. Anaheim 37.5% (14)
Eastern Conference
1. Boston 75.0% (7)
1. Tampa 75.0% (3)
3. Philadelphia 62.5% (2)
4. Montreal 68.2% (1)
5. Washington 63.6% (4)
6. NY Rangers 59.1% (5)
7. Toronto 55.0% (9)
8. Atlanta 54.5% (7)
8. Pittsburgh 54.2% (6)
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10. Carolina 45.4% (11)
11. Islanders 45.4% (10)
12. Florida 44.4% (13)
13. Ottawa 40.9% (12)
14. Buffalo 33.3% (14)
15. New Jersey 26.9% (15)
So now the moment of truth...
Let's look at my predictions On October 7th, see how I am doing....(some fun, eh?)
In the East I had:
1. NJ (off by 14 places)
2. Washington (off by 3)
3. Buffalo (off by 11)
4. Tampa (off by 3)
5. Philadelphia (off by 2)
6. Pittsburgh (off by 2)
7. Toronto (EXACT)
8. NY Ranger (off by 2)
9. Boston (off by 8)
10. Montreal (off by 6)
11. Atlanta (off by 3)
12. Ottawa (off by 1)
13. Carolina (off by 3)
14. NY Islanders (off by 3)
15. Florida (off by 3)
And in the West, I had:
1. Vancouver (off by 2)
2. San Jose (off by 4)
3. Chicago (off by 8)
4. St Louis (off by 3)
5. Edmonton (off by 9)
6. Nashville (off by 1)
7. La Kings (off by 5)
8. Calgary (off by 2)
9. Anaheim (off by 6)
10. Detroit (off by 6)
11. Columbus (off by 4)
12. Phoenix (off by 1)
13. Minnesota (off by 1)
14. Colorado (off by 5)
15. Dallas (off by 8)
so in the East I am am currently off by 64
in the West I am currently off by 65....
So my FAIL# is currently:
129 Go me!
So before you start telling me how smart you are, go back to the comments from the blog
HERE and calculate your fail number by taking your predicted positions in the standings and matching them up against the current "Points Percentage" standings.
What is your FAIL#?
Then you can tell me how smart you are...
(
And don't go changing your picks...I have screen shots of all the comments with all your picks already.)
Still to come on Tuesday...
How I would change my picks given what we have seen so far...and of course a rumor blog.
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