UPDATE: Cutting the goaltending disadvantage
You can rest assured that the goaltending matchup is the primary storyline that every print pundit, TV talking head and national media member in Canada will harp on when they discuss the upcoming Flyers-Sabres playoff series. On paper, the Sabres clearly have a significant edge with Ryan Miller opposing rookie Sergei Bobrovsky. Even though their regular season stats were very similar, Miller has earned his stripes in the league as a Vezina-caliber goalie when in top form while Bobrovsky is still proving himself.
One area of the goaltending matchup that I not concerned about is whether Bobrovsky will be able mentally to bounce back from his mediocre (and brief) outing against the Islanders in the final game of the regular season. I think he's shown several times this year -- most recently in his stellar game against Pittsburgh two nights after a fiasco against Washington -- that he has the mental toughness to put bad games aside immediately.
What we have to see, however, is how he handles the playoffs. In the post-season, each team applies its scouting reports and pre-playoff series preparations in designing a plan of attack against the other side, including the goalie. From there, it becomes a contest of which team and which players make the faster and more effective adjustments over the remainder of the series. That's fundamentally how playoff hockey differs from regular season hockey, when it's hard (and often impossible) to specifically prepare a team for a particular opponent.
Around the NHL, it's no secret that there's a shoot-high book on Bobrovsky when shooting from the hash marks to the high-slot. In addition, he does not always get the pads squeezed off as fully as he should, and it is not uncommon for him to have the puck dribble through when he seemed to have everything closed off. When moving in one-on-one with him, meanwhile, players have found more success in shooting quickly -- often at the five-hole -- rather than trying to outmaneuver him laterally.
In any goaltending matchup, GAA and even save percentage only tell you so much. It's not how many goals or shots the goalie faces -- I have seen many 18-save performances where the goalie was tested much more severely than in a 40-shot game where most everything came from the perimeter. It's also the timing of the saves and goals against as well as the circumstances of a goal that can shift the momentum of a game.
When playing against Miller, chances are that he's not going to let in too many soft goals. He can also make extremely tough saves look routine -- and the shooter gets blamed for putting the puck right into the logo or smack dab in the middle of the pillows -- because he's usually in the right position.
The most reliable way to beat Miller or any top goalie is to render him a non-factor in the game. Get enough screens and deflections and outwork the defense to crash the net or get men open in the slot and every goalie in the universe is beatable. The Flyers actually had such a game against Miller during the regular season.
If you looked only at the box score of the Flyers' 5-2 win over the Sabres on Jan. 11, you would think that Miller had a so-so outing after he allowed four goals on 32 shots (the Flyers added a late empty netter). Nothing could have been further from the truth. Miller was actually tremendous in this game -- he played as well or better than goalies who shut out the Flyers on more shots this season. He made all the routine saves and several spectacular ones, but had no prayer at all on any of the goals he gave up.
In order to render Miller a non-factor and limit the exposure of Bobrovsky, however, the Flyers need to get back to doing things they haven't done consistently in months. They need to establish their forecheck and focus on puck-possession and avoid low-percentage plays committed either out of laziness or simply as a result of lack of cohesive team play.
If the Flyers can establish and sustain that level -- and I do think Philly's A-game is superior to Buffalo's but the Sabres were the better, harder working team in the second half of the season -- they can win with the "lesser" goalie.
If Philly fails in that regard, it doesn't matter whether it's Bobrovsky, Brian Boucher or last-ditch option Michael Leighton in net. They'll still lose. If they do sustain a solid level of play, then it will be up to Bobrovsky (or Boucher) to make sure that goaltending holds up its end of the bargain.
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I am in the process of writing a series of preview blogs -- which I will start each morning, and add new sections throughout the next couple of days. I will add the updates to the same blog to keep the continuity and also avoid disturbing the comments section.
I detest making hockey predictions, and I refrain from doing so unless put on the spot. After watching this Flyers team all season, I still have no idea what to expect from them in the playoffs. I think they've amply shown both that they are capable of beating any team in the NHL (except perhaps Vancouver) in a seven game series and equally capable of having a repeat of past early-round exits, including their three first-round playoff losses (in four tries) to the Sabres since 1998.
Playoff series very often come down to which team wins the special teams battles and which goalie makes the key saves and key times and avoids soft goals. The Flyers, quite simply, are going to have to do a better job at protecting leads and converting key power plays at momentum-shifting junctures of games.
In subsequent blog updates today and tomorrow, I will look at what I consider to be the five biggest keys to the series for the Flyers:
1) Cutting the on-page goaltending disadvantage
2) Winning the special teams battle
3) Protecting leads
4) Putting the on-paper scoring depth advantage to work
5) Physical play and discipline
Each time I post an update, I will put notice out via Twitter (@billmeltzer) and the message board.
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Today's
Daily Drop at Versus.com talks about the things I love -- and hate -- the most about the Stanley Cup playoffs. At playoff time, everything gets magnified both for the good and for the bad.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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