UPDATE 8 PM: LOOKING AT THE SPECIAL TEAMS MATCHUPS
Even when the Flyers were in a solid groove in the first half of the 2010-11 season, they inexplicably struggled on the power play.
Minus Simon Gagne, the key personnel this season was largely the same as last year when the club ranked ranked 3rd in the NHL with a 21.8 percent efficiency rating (the third straight season the Flyers topped the 20 percent mark). Take away the Flyers' power play success in last year's playoffs -- 21.9 percent -- and their run to Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final would not have been possible.
But that was then and this is now. This season, the Flyers' started out the season in a power play funk, got things going in November, and then accomplished little the remainder of the season. They finished 19th in the NHL with a 16.6 percent conversion rate.
All too often, power plays were more often momentum killers than momentum generators for Philly. In the first half of the season, the Flyers compensated through a huge positive goal differential at even strength. When even strength goals became harder to come by for Philly in the second half of the season, the ongoing power play issues started to cost the Flyers points in the stands.
Perhaps the most encouraging aspect of the Flyers' regulation win in Pittsburgh a few weeks ago -- apart from two points in the standings that proved to be absolutely critical to winning the division -- was their performance against the top-rated penalty kill in the NHL. Even without Chris Pronger in the lineup, the Flyers found success with strong puck support, rapid puck movement, simple but accurate shots on net and traffic in front.
Unfortunately, that model was not followed through in subsequent games. But if the Flyers are to perform well on the power play in the Buffalo series, they will need to adopt the same approach that worked in that Pittsburgh game. The Sabres ranked 13th in the NHL on the penalty kill (83.0 percent) this season but got much stronger as the season progressed.
Despite their team speed, the Sabres scored only two shorthanded goals this season, while the Flyers yielded 5 SHGs to the opposition. Even so, the Flyers gave up far too many oddman rushes off turnovers late in the season and SHGs can be real backbreakers. Philly will need to careful to have someone cover up high when a point man pinches and avoid the sort of risky cross-ice passes that lead to turnovers and shorthanded scoring chances.
On the flip side of the coin, the Flyers PK was a team asset for much of the season. The club hit a few rough patches that usually lasted for 3-4 games but, for the most part, the Flyers were a very good penalty killing team despite finishing right in the middle of the pack in the league (82.8 percent, 15th overall). The absence of Pronger and Blair Betts (knee) in the final week of the regular season directly contributed to Philadelphia struggling badly on the PK in their last couple of games. With both players still on the mend, others will have to pick up the slack.
For the second time in the last three seasons, the Flyers were one of the most dangerous teams in the NHL when they got a shorthanded scoring chance. Claude Giroux, especially early in the season, was deadly on PK counterattacks and the likes of Mike Richards, Jeff Carter and Kris Versteeg are also dangerous when they intercept the puck and gain daylight to the opposing net. Philadelphia's 13 SHGs tied for second in the NHL this year. Meanwhile Buffalo yielded 13 shorties this year, including one to Versteeg in the next-to-last game of the regular season.
Buffalo's power play picked up as the season rolled along. The club finished 9th overall on the league with a 19.4 percent conversion rate. Not surprisingly, Thomas Vanek and Drew Stafford led the way with 11 PPGs apiece After a terrible first half of the season, last year's Calder Trophy winner Tyler Myers started to get his game back together, finishing with 10 goals (3 on the man advantage), while Jordan Leopold potted 13 goals (5 on the power play). The goal support from the back line helped make the Sabres as a team more dangerous both at even strength and the power play.
Very often, the balance of power in a playoff series depends on which club gains the upper hand on the power play. Right now, the on-paper edge in special teams appears to belong slightly to Buffalo. But that could very easily change if the Flyers play to their capabilities and not to their regular season numbers.
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Anyone who knows me knows that I hate making predictions about standings, game results or playoff series outcomes. The only thing I feel comfortable predicting about the Stanley Cup playoffs is that there will be upsets in the first round -- I just don't know which series it'll happen.
The NHL adopted the six division format in 1998-99. There has not been a single year since then when the top three seeds in both conferences advanced past the first round (you have to go back to 1995-96 for the last time in the four-division era that all the first-place clubs in the regular season made it to round 2).
Today's
Daily Drop at Versus.com attempts to deconstruct the anatomy of a playoff upset.
I will add sections to this blog later today on the special teams matchup and the Flyers issues with protecting leads heading into the Buffalo series.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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