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Meltzer's Musings: 4/28/11

April 28, 2011, 7:32 AM ET [ Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
UPDATE 11:30 AM EDT

You can be sure that most every preview of the Flyers-Bruins series will focus on what happened last year -- with multiple "Bruins Say Last Year is Forgotten" type of stories -- and on the goaltending matchup.

I will not discuss the lingering psychological effects of the Flyers' comeback last year apart from saying that it's in the back of everyone's minds, even though no one on either side of the series will admit it. However, I don't think anything that happened a year ago will directly factor into the series this time around.

I would be remiss if I didn't discuss the goaltending issue in depth. At the same time, I will add that there are other factors that will be every bit as important to the outcome of the series as the goalie play. Tomorrow's blog will look at two such factors: the special teams concerns of both sides and the need for the Flyers to overcome what I think will be an on-paper advantage for Boston in physical play (the national media loves to talk about the Flyers' physicality, but they actually have more finesse than grit up front).

Forgetting all the pundits' jabs taken at the Flyers' goaltending carousel, if you look carefully at what happened in the Buffalo series, you will see that goaltending was a problem in the first period of Game 2 (Sergei Bobrovsky), the first period of Game 5 (Brian Boucher) and the first period of Game 6 (Michael Leighton). Otherwise, the goaltending was anywhere from adequate to excellent, with Boucher playing very well minus the one bad period.

It all depends on how you want to slice it. You can look at it as the Flyers' goalies digging them a hole in multiple games in the first round, and an elite caliber opposition goalie (Buffalo's Ryan Miller) stealing a pair of 1-0 wins along the way. You could also spin it as the Flyers having received the equivalent of one game's worth (i.e., three periods) of horrendous goaltending and six games worth of goaltending that gave them a chance to prevail in the series.

Boucher has had so many highs and lows over the course of his career that he has become almost immune mentally to be affected by benchings, poor games and slumps. In his career, he owns series wins against Dominik Hasek, Martin Brodeur and Miller. People also forget that Boosh played a part in the Flyers' comeback against Boston last year. He was in goal for Game 4, when the Flyers prevailed in OT to stay alive and was pitching a shutout in Game 5 when he got hurt, necessitating a switch to Michael Leighton.

At his best, Boucher is capable of matching any opposing goalie he faces, including Tim Thomas. At his worst, well, go back and watch the clips from the first period of Game 5 against Buffalo. Boucher can make huge saves and he can also suddenly implode in any given game. That's why he's never been able to permanently stake down a starting job after his incredible rookie run. But Boosh always competes and plays with heart.

The book on beating Boucher is to throw as much rubber at him as possible, because he'll sometimes get out of whack in his positioning in the crease -- either getting back a little too far or else leaving room on the short side. When he's one-on-one against a shooter, the book is to get him moving laterally because it's not a strength. He handles the puck decently and is generally calm under pressure.

With Thomas, there really is no book. He's a bit like Dominik Hasek in that he's unorthodox and a bit unpredictable but he very much knows what he's doing out there. Nowadays, smaller goalies are a dying breed, but Thomas can make saves in a variety of ways, even if he seems to be out of position.

Thomas presents some unique challenges to opposing teams. For one thing, even though it's advisable to get traffic directly in front of him and he'll leave out rebounds, Thomas' rebounds often carom past attackers who are in too close. You can't have it both ways, and the Bruins are good at cleaning up rebounds in the slot while Thomas usually gets the best of scrambles in close.

Second, shooters know they have to hurry against the perennial Vezina candidate and the strong Boston defense. As a result, they often miss the net or fail to elevate the puck.

Lastly, when shooters are one on one with Thomas, they had better expect the unexpected. Thomas has an uncanny read on most attackers, and one time he may simply wait them out and the next time, knock the puck away with a sudden pokecheck.

On the flip side, Thomas is human. He sometimes guesses wrong and can be made to look awful on some of the goals he gives up. Thomas will also venture out of his net and get caught way out of position if the puck takes a strange bounce off the boards. Like all goalies, he'll only come up with so many saves off deflections, screens and point blank chances. Get enough of them and he's just as beatable as any other goalie. Thomas struggled a bit down the stretch this season.

Finally, Thomas can get rattled emotionally at times. I'm sure most folks remember the 2010 Winter Classic when Danny Syvret scored the lone Philadelphia goal on a play where Thomas was so agitated by Scott Hartnell in front of him that he skated out to pop Hartnell and forgot all about the fact that play was still going on. However, unlike notorious hothead Ed Belfour (who could blow sky high and start to let in soft goals once his emotions got the best of him), Thomas usually settles back down again.

On paper, there's no question that the edge belongs to Thomas. But the Flyers' attackers are capable of solving him, and Boucher is equally capable of giving his team a chance to win even if scoring goals on Thomas takes a lot of patience and hard work with a dose of self-made good luck.

I would hope that Peter Laviolette learned his lesson in the first round about flip-flopping the goaltenders too often. The Flyers were extremely lucky to survive the Leighton fiasco in Game 6. From here on out, it's (probably) Boucher and Sergei Bobrovsky.

In terms of Bobrovsky, it remains to be seen if he'd be up to the task of coming in to start again or relieve Boucher should Boosh falter. Bobrovsky was excellent in Game 1 of the Buffalo series -- except for a single bad rebound goal that was the difference in the 1-0 game. He looked mentally flustered and mechanically out of whack in Game 2 before he was pulled. After that, he was scratched in Games 3-6 and served as the backup in Game 7. All season long, the 22-year-old Russian rookie showed resilience and mental toughness in the face of adversity. However, the playoffs are a whole different animal.

Bobrovsky's effectiveness generally comes down to two factors. How aggressive is he in cutting down the angle? And how well does he track the puck?

When Bobrovsky is aggressive and square to the shooter a strong in tracking the puck, he looks like a future franchise goalie. When he's going down way too early, getting way too far back in the crease (making himself look very small) and losing sight of the puck, he looks like he should have spent the season in the AHL. The book on Bobrovsky is to shoot high, but the same can be said for any butterfly goalie. It's when commits himself that's the X-factor in his game.

Bobrovsky has worked hard at improving his ability to stop the puck behind the net and get it to a defenseman. He's still not stellar in this area, but he's improving. He actually fared quite well in Game 1 against Buffalo in that area, although Buffalo wasn't exactly pushing hard on the forecheck in that game.

The Bruins also have an on-paper edge in the backup goalie department. Even if Thomas gets injured or gets lit up, Boston has an extremely capable replacement in Tuukka Rask. The Finn, who unseated Thomas (ahead of schedule) as the starter at the midpoint last season, did not play poorly this year. It was just the reverse of last season. Rask got less goal support and wasn't quite as effective as Thomas. He is still a number one caliber goaltender and, if on Philadelphia or many other clubs, would have been the undisputed starter at the level he played when given a chance this season.

Rask is a different type of goalie than Thomas. He's big, swallows up a lot of net and plays a more traditional style.


******

With the first round of the playoffs finally completed, the Atlantic Division winning Flyers are now locked in to play the Northeast Division winning Boston Bruins in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The series, of course, is a rematch from the second round last year, when the Bruins took a 3-0 series lead and a 3-0 lead in the deciding game only to see the Flyers come back to win.

Heading into this year's series, there are a few key differences from the last time the clubs met.

On the Philadelphia side, Simon Gagne (who played a major role in the comeback last year) is no longer a member of the team. However, the Flyers' forward corps overall is deeper than it was a year ago, with 8 players in the starting lineup who scored at least 19 goals during the regular season. James van Riemsdyk has begun to mature and spread his wings.

Both last year and this season, Jeff Carter is unavailable heading into the series. Last year, Carter missed the series with a broken bone in his foot. This time around, he has a sprained knee ligament and may or may not be available in the latter part of the series.

On defense, the Flyers are deeper than they were a year ago, with the additions of Andrej Meszaros and Sean O'Donnell in replacement of players such as Lukas Krajicek and Ryan Parent, who were starters in last year's series. However, Chris Pronger was in better health entering the Boston series last year. He has battled a variety of injuries this season, and is presently still recovering shooting strength after undergoing hand surgery.

In goal, Brian Boucher once again enters the second round coming off a series win against a bigger name goalie in round one. Last year, it was a five-game win over Martin Brodeur and the Devils. This time around, Philly started the first round with rookie Sergei Bobrovsky in goal and then Peter Laviolette played musical goalies. The Flyers became the first team since the 1987-88 Red Wings to win a series using three different starting goalies. However, Boucher authored all four wins in the Buffalo series. He imploded in the first period of Game 5, but was very strong in a relief role in Games 2 and 6, as well as in the going the distance as the starter of Games 3, 4 and 7.

On the Boston side, the Bruins enter the series a little bit healthier than they were a year ago. Injuries took a toll on Boston over the course of last year's series. They have six players who scored at least 18 goals during the regular season and a dozen players with double-digit goals. In particular, Milan Lucic has continued his emergence as an all-around force. Nathan Horton (26 regular season goals, 3 first playoff round goals including the OT game winner in Game 7) was not a member of the Bruins a year ago, and is the type of player who can make an impact on a playoff series. Boston is also deeper on the blueline than they were a year ago, most notably with the addition of Tomas Kaberle near the trade deadline.

In goal, this time a year ago, promising young Tuukka Rask had displaced reigning Vezina Trophy winner Tim Thomas as the starting goaltender. This time around, Thomas (who is a strong candidate to have won another Vezina Trophy), is back in goal.

Later today, I will add a blog update devoted solely to the goaltending issue in this series. Tomorrow, I will discuss special teams.

********

Following is the series schedule:


GAME 1 – Saturday, April 30 at Philadelphia – 3:05 PM (NBC)
GAME 2 – Monday, May 2 at Philadelphia – 7:35 PM (Versus)
GAME 3 – Wednesday, May 4 at Boston – 7:05 PM (Versus)
GAME 4 – Friday, May 6 at Boston – 8:05 PM (CSN)

If necessary
GAME 5 – Sunday, May 8 at Philadelphia – 3:05 PM. (NBC)
GAME 6 – Tuesday, May 10 at Boston (CSN)
GAME 7 – Thursday, May 12 at Philadelphia (TBD, CSN)
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