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Meltzer's Musings: 4/29/11 |
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The goaltending matchup and the "revenge factor" will be the pre-series storylines that get the lion's share of the attention heading into the Eastern Conference Semifinal series between the Flyers and the Boston Bruins. However, there are at least two other facets of the series that are getting relatively little attention but are at least equally important to the goalie play -- and FAR more important that any carryover effects from last year.
The first is special teams play. Both the Flyers and Bruins were excellent five-on-five clubs over the balance of the regular season and during their respective first-round playoff series. Their special teams work left something to be desired, especially on the power play.
It was almost miraculous that Boston was able to prevail in the first round given the fact that they had to do all of their scoring at even strength. The Bruins went 0-for-21 on the man advantage against Montreal. They also gave up a shorthanded goal in the seventh game of the series.
The Flyers didn't fare much better, going 5-for-35 (14.3 percent) against Buffalo. This includes several failed two-man advantages. However, it should be noted that Philly scored three PPGs over the final two games of the series. The continued recovery of Chris Pronger's surgically repaired right hand could further aid Philly's power play.
During the regular season, Boston's power play ranked just below the Flyers. The Bruins' 16.2 percent success ratio ranked 20th overall in the NHL. The Flyers were 19th at a conversion rate of 16.6 percent and 19th overall.
The penalty kill has also been frightfully similar. Both clubs were inconsistent on the PK in their respective first round series. The Flyers were just 24-for-31 (77.4%) against Buffalo, while Boston was 21-for-27 (77.8%) against Montreal. Much of the Canadiens' damage was done during 5-on-3s, while the Flyers actually survived many of their two-man PKs.
During the regular season, the Flyers ranked 15th on the PK (82.8%) and Boston was 16th (82.6%). The Flyers scored 13 shorthanded goals to 11 by Boston. Neither club tallied a shortie in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals.
The second key factor to watch in the series is physical play. The Bruins are arguably a little better equipped to wear down an opponent in a playoff series through physical play. For all the talk in the national media about the Flyers being a physical team, their core of forwar includes more undersized and/or finesse-oriented players than Boston.
That's not to say that some of the "skill guys" on Philly (Claude Giroux being a good example) are surprisingly adept of taking the body aggressively. Even someone like Nikolay Zherdev -- as demonstrated in Games 6 and 7 against Buffalo -- sometimes delivers punishing hits. But on a game-in and game-out basis, Boston has been the more effective hitting team.
In order to counter, someone like Mike Richards needs to set the tone for his club. Dan Carcillo was very effective physically in round one, and at least half of the Flyers starting defense (Pronger, Andrej Meszaros and Braydon Coburn) can dial up their physical game. The challenge for Scott Hartnell, Carcillo and Darroll Powe is to walk the line between aggressive play and taking bad penalties.
Of all Flyers players, Danny Briere is probably the most prone to taking penalties in the offensive zone. He's hardly the only culprit, as Hartnell and Powe are close behind in that dubious department. Even if the Flyers kill off the minors, it expends precious energy.