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Meltzer's Musings: Home Ice Disadvantage

May 27, 2011, 11:20 AM ET [ Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
One of the most baffling and frustrating aspects of the Flyers' swoon after the All-Star break this season was the way the club struggled on home ice. Over the team's final 13 home games of the regular season, the team only won three times -- twice against the New York Islanders and once against the Edmonton Oilers. In the playoffs, one year after going 9-2 on home ice, Philly went 2-4 in the games the Wells Fargo Center.

In a season where the Flyers had one of their best years ever on the road, the sudden inability to win at home as the season wound down was tough to stomach. The overall regular season records were similar (25-11-5 on the road, 22-12-7 at home) but, at the most critical juncture of the season, the Wells Fargo Center suddenly became unfriendly confines to the Flyers.

Was it that the Flyers felt less of a sense of urgency on home ice? Perhaps. In many of the games they lost at home down the stretch, the Flyers scored first and then saw the game slip away in the second or especially the third period. The Flyers ended up with the 16th best winning percentage in the NHL when leading after two periods (38-1-5, .864) and the 17th best when leading after the first period (25-5-4, .735). The team had ranked near the top in the NHL for most of the season. Much of the slippage was the result of blown leads in home games down the stretch.

Related note: The Flyers were not a very good comeback team this season. It's not that they didn't show character when they fell behind in games -- as witnessed by their efforts in Games 5 and 6 of the Buffalo series. There were plenty of games early in the season where the Flyers went off trailing after the first period only to erase the deficit in the middle frame and then go on to win in the final stanza.

Philly ranked 8th in the NHL this season when trailing after the first period (8-11-4, .348) but most of the wins were in the first half of the season. In the playoffs, the Flyers were 1-5 when trailing after the first period. The win was in a potential elimination game (Game 6) in Buffalo.

As far as third period comebacks go, it was not a pretty picture for Philly this season. During the regular season, the Flyers' winning percentage when trailing entering the third period (1-16-5, .045) ranked 27th of the 30 teams in the league. The Flyers managed one win in five tries in the playoffs.

Among the teams remaining in the playoffs this year, Boston earned 15 points (5 wins, 5 OT/SO losses) when trailing after two periods during the regular season, Vancouver earned 13 points (5 wins, 3 OT/SO losses) and Tampa earned 9 points (4 wins, 1 SO loss). The Bruins are currently 0-5 in the playoffs when trailing after two, the Canucks are 1-3 and the Bolts are 1-5. San Jose was 2-5 in the postseason when trailing after two and ranked 14th in the regular season (3 wins, 3 OT/SO losses in 21 tries).

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The Flyers will undoubtedly give qualifying offers this summer to restricted free agent forwards Darroll Powe ($725,000 last season) and Andreas Nodl ($850,000). NHL rules specify that players in their salary group must be offered 105% of their salary from last season in order to retain their rights. That would put Powe's salary at a minimum of $761,250 and Nodl at a minimum $892,500.

Neither player should be particularly difficult to get resigned. Powe is strictly a fourth line player whose game isn't going to change much. Nodl is a little tougher call. In the first half of the season, he showed signs of his offensive game finally starting to come around. In the second half -- apart from playing the best game of his career in a March tilt against Washington -- his offense was non-existent and his two-game was inconsistent.

Whenever I look at Nodl, I see a player who could either go on to be one of those guys who stars in a European league but can't break through the fringe role-player ceiling at the NHL level or else goes on become the type of NHL player whose productivity exceeds his salary (at least until he reaches unrestricted free agency status).

Taken on the whole, I think the 2010-11 season was a step forward for Nodl. However, he needs to establish greater consistency next season -- not just in producing points but also in his checking and physical games. This is especially true if the club has to sacrifice forwards such as Kris Versteeg for salary cap room, and if they are unable to resign UFA winger Ville Leino. It's already a foregone conclusion that Nikolay Zherdev won't be back.

Nodl could suddenly find himself being relied on to be more of an offensive contributor next season. Is that a comforting thought? Not really. But Nodl has shown flashes of the potential that made him a second round pick in 2006. At age 24, if he's going to have a breakthrough year in the NHL, the 2011-12 season may be his best shot. It's unrealistic to expect him to regularly show the form he did in that nationally televised game against Washington. But if he can get even close, Nodl can be part of the solution to make up for some the impending loss of scoring depth up front.
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