I know that there has been a lot of speculation of late about Simon Gagne returning to Philadelphia at about half his about-to-expire $5 million cap hit. Sentimentally, it would be great to have him finish his career in Philadelphia, but I think that Ville Leino at about $3 million -- or even $3.25 million -- would be a smarter move for Philly at this stage than Gagne at about $2.5 million.
Gagne's health raises a major red flag for me, more so than Leino's hip concerns. Gagne is only 31, but it's an "old" 31. He has lost a step off the blazing speed he once possessed -- you rarely see Gagne blow by defenders in open ice anymore -- and he has always been prone to various upper body injuries, including concussions.
Even if the Flyers do not resign Leino, they will only gain $800,000 in cap space over what they had at the end of this past season. Of course, not resigning him would mean they would not have to commit an additional $2.2 million to $2.7 million of cap resources. With the likely departure of Nikolay Zherdev, the club would gain an additional $2 million in cap space over last season.
While the team certainly needs an upgrade in goal, I think they also need to be very careful about planning their blueline for next season. It cannot be overstated just how important the health and productivity of Chris Pronger and Kimmo Timonen will be to the Flyers' hopes next season. For those who want to ship off Matt Carle to create salary cap space to get a goalie -- and that's pretty much all the team would get, unless Carle were moved in a larger deal -- consider this frightening possibility:
Imagine that Pronger will not be ready to start the season or that he misses nearly as much time in 2011-12 as he did this year. Now add in the need to replace his partner Carle, the loss of O'Donnell in favor of Erik Gustafsson/Oskars Bartulis and the resulting need to put heavy mileage all season on the aging Timonen. That's a scenario that no one wants to consider right now, and one in which even the acquisition of a top flight goalie may not be enough to compensate. The blueline could get real thin in a hurry.
The Flyers are not going to give away Jeff Carter ($5.272 cap hit, up from $5 million) to create salary cap space. It would have to be the right deal, bringing other assets back in addition to cap room. Scott Hartnell ($4.2 million) has a no-trade clause, while Kris Versteeg ($3.08 million) does not. I am of the opinion that the Flyers cannot afford to trade Carter this year, especially if they do not resign free agents Leino and Zherdev.
That would be 71 goals to replace between the three players. Even if the cap goes up by $3 million, I suspect the Flyers would not have enough cap room to address the goaltending, try to keep the blueline intact for one more year
and avoid taking a major hit in scoring depth. The team already has committed $3.75 million on the cap to Claude Giroux for the next three years, an increase of $2.93 million over his entry level contract.
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It is going to be interesting to see who ends getting waived at the end of training camp. organization consistently wants to waive players in order to create cap space. As things currently stand with one month to go before the start of free agency, the Flyers could up needing to waive as many as three players at the end of training camp in order to become cap compliant by opening night.
Depending on Michael Leighton's health in training camp, it seems likely that he will be waived in an attempt to free up $1.55 million on the salary cap. Alternatively, if he is still having physical problems, he could wind up starting the season on IR.
Presumably tougher decisions will also need to be made with Matt Walker ($1.7 million) and Jody Shelley ($1.1 million). Both players still have two seasons to go on their current contracts.
If the Flyers do not retain restricted free agent Dan Carcillo ($1.075 million), they may opt to keep the well-respected but limited Shelley as the 12th or 13th forward on the roster next season. Alternatively, a cheaper player such as Tom Sestito (restricted free agent, earned $575,000 last season) may edge him out for a checking/enforcer role.
There is a good chance the Flyers will not have the salary cap flexibility to bring back Sean O'Donnell ($1.3 million) next season. In strictly hockey terms, Walker (if healthy) would stand a better chance at earning the team's 6th defenseman slot next season than he did in 2011-12. But cap economics could end up squeezing him out of the picture again. It remains to be seen if either Gustafsson ($900,000) or Bartulis ($600,000) are capable of holding down regular starting jobs in the NHL.
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Coming tomorrow, I will take a look at prospect Matt Read in the first of a series of blogs on prospects in the Flyers' system.
This week on NHL.com's
Across the Pond, I take a look at former Flyers defenseman Ulf Samuelsson. After five years as an assistant coach with the Phoenix Coyotes, he will take on his first head coaching job next season with Modo Hockey in Sweden's Elitserien. Ex-Flyer Peter Forsberg is the club's new assistant GM, and Markus Naslund was named GM late last year.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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