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Meltzer's Musings: Eriksson's rights, Defense prospects |
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Before I get into today's blog about defensive prospects, I wanted to answer a semi-related question that several people have asked me. As many people know, the Flyers lost the rights to defenseman Simon Bertilsson, a 2009 third-round pick, earlier this week.
Correspondingly, I asked Paul Holmgren about the status of goaltending prospect Joacim Eriksson (a 2008 draftee). He confirmed by email today that Eriksson's rights have also expired. That does not mean that neither player would be of interest to the Flyers in the future, but it does mean that both are fair game for other NHL organizations.
I know that some folks are going to spin this into some sort of monumental blunder, but neither guy is ready to come over now. So what choice did the Flyers really have, since the rules no longer allow NHL clubs to hold onto Euro prospects in virtual perpetuity?
Eriksson is a good goaltending prospect but is certainly not NHL ready -- he's still not even a bonafide starting goalie in Elitserien yet. Bertilsson has been very injury-prone and the offensive side of his game (which he displayed at the Swedish junior level before graduating to Elitserien) has not emerged at all yet.
Both players, especially Eriksson, are worth tracking in the next season or two. But there are only so many entry-level contracts to go around, and most European players prefer playing in their home elite league to the AHL. Personally, I think it would make a lot more sense if NHL teams had a four- or five-year window to sign players drafted from Europe, especially goaltenders.
Right now, between veterans Michael Leighton (assuming he's waived) and Johan Backlund there is already a bit of a logjam on the Phantoms. While the Flyers could have signed Eriksson to an entry-level contract and loaned him back to his Swedish club, his lack of high-level pro experience to date (his year in Allsvenskan doesn't count as "high level") would have made it strictly a speculation signing at this point. That said, if the Flyers had not signed Niko Hovinen to an entry level contract, I suspect they would have signed Eriksson.
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The Flyers historically have had trouble drafting and developing defensemen who go on to become significant contributors for the club at the NHL level.
If you look at the entire history of the organization, the eight homegrown defensemen who contributed the most in a Flyers uniform -- I'm not talking about what they may have done elsewhere -- would be Jimmy Watson, Tom Bladon, Behn Wilson, Miro Dvorak (who was a 30-year-old established star in Europe and international hockey when the Czechoslovakian government allowed him to enter the NHL draft in 1982), Chris Therien, Dmitri Yushkevich, Joni Pitkänen and Janne Niinimaa.
The next tier down would be players such as Luca Sbisa, Randy Jones, Jiri Latal (drafted by Toronto but developed here), Dennis Seidenberg, Jim Vandermeer, Mark Eaton, Dmitri Tertyshny, 1992 first-round pick Jason Bowen, Alexandre Picard, Norm Barnes, and former first-round picks Kerry Huffman and Darren Rumble.
From 1995 onward, the Flyers have drafted (or signed as a rookie free agent) exactly seven defensemen who went to play even 50 games in orange and black: Jones (217 regular season games), Pitkänen (206 games), Vandermeer (75 games over two stints), Picard (66 games), current Flyer Oskars Bartulis (66 games), Seidenberg (63 games) and Tertyshny (62 games as a rookie before his untimely death). Free agent rookie Mark Eaton, a local product, played 27 NHL games as rookie with the Flyers before moving on to a decent NHL career with three other NHL teams to date.
2008 first-rounder Sbisa dressed in 39 regular season games and one playoff game as a rookie before being dealt to Anaheim in the deal that brought Chris Pronger to Philadelphia.
Meanwhile, Jeff Woywitka (the Flyers' first round pick in 2001) never played an NHL game with the Flyers before he was traded to Edmonton in the deal that sent Mike Comrie to Philly. However, he has gone on to play 251 regular season games and became a regular third-pairing starter for the Dallas Stars over the course of this past season.
In terms of Entry Draft breakdown from 1995 to 2010, here's how it shakes out:
* In that span, the Flyers have used three first round picks on defensemen (Woywitka in '01, Pitkänen in '02, Sbisa in '08).
* They've used six second-round picks, with none of the players having played a single NHL game, at least to date. The picks are as follows: Shayne Kenny in 1995, Jason Beckett and Ian Forbes in 1998, Mike Ratchuk and Denis Bodrov in 2006, and current farmhand Kevin Marshall in the 2007 draft.
* The Flyers have used five third-round picks on D-men in that span. Two have appeared in the NHL to date. The list: Kris Mallette in 1997, Picard in 2003, Bartulis in 2005, current farmhand Marc-Andre Bourdon in 2008 and Simon Bertilsson in 2009.
* Among draft picks selected in the fourth-round or later since 1995, there have been six draftees who at least appeared in the NHL with the Flyers. They are as follows: Tertysnhy (6th round in 1995), Jeff Lank (9th round in 1995), Bruno St. Jacques (9th round in 1998), Seidenberg (6th round in 2001), Jussi Timonen (5th round in 2001) and David Printz (7th round in 2001). In addition, Jesse Boulerice (5th round, 1996) was drafted as a defenseman but switched to wing during his later junior and pro careers.
* Eaton, Vandermeer and Jones were all undrafted players signed as rookie free agents and developed through the Flyers' farm system. Ditto current prospect Erik Gustafsson.
When you look over this history, I would argue that the inability to develop homegrown defenseman into productive NHL players in Philadelphia has been a bigger problem than the much-scrutinized goaltending history of the organization. Virtually every all-star caliber defenseman in franchise history -- Mark Howe, Chris Pronger, Eric Desjardins, Bob Dailey, Brad McCrimmon, etc -- has been acquired by trades in which the club has had to give up significant assets in return. Even most of the other bonafide top-four defensemen have come via trade or free agency.
I would like to be optimistic that at a few of the homegrown defensemen currently in the Flyers system -- Bartulis, Gustafsson, Marshall, Bourdon, and/or the deposed Joonas Lehtivuori -- will go on become significant contributors to the big club in the next year or two. But given the history involved and the progress rate of most of these players to date, I think it's more realistic to hope that at least one becomes a reliable 5th or 6th defenseman.
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Bartulis is the most experienced player of the lot -- including a decent performance at the 2010 Olympics for Latvia -- and has shown flashes of being the type of player the team can reliably use regularly on the third pair. Poise has been a concern, as it so often is for young NHL defensemen. With the likely departure of Sean O'Donnell, Bartulis (as well as Gustafsson and possibly Marshall) will get a shot to compete with Matt Walker for the sixth starting spot. Bartulis signed a long-term contract in 2009-10, which pays him a one-way arrangement of $600,000 through the 2012-13 season.
Gustafsson is the best puck mover of the bunch by a significant margin and most offensive minded player of the bunch. He has NHL wheels and held his own in limited duty during his brief stint with the big club last year. Size is a concern and he still needs to improve a bit on his side of the red line. He has two seasons remaining on his entry-level contract, which would pay him $900,000 at the NHL level.
Marshall is the biggest hitter of the lot. I have likened him in the past to a better-skating version of Denis Gauthier. His AHL development has been slow -- two full AHL seasons with zero NHL games is often a red flag -- but he showed considerable improvement over the second half of the season. Marshall has one year remaining on his entry level contract, which would pay him $845,833 at the NHL level. He will be a restricted free agent after the season.
Bourdon offers the combination of a heavy point shot, size and a willingness to play physically. His decision-making with and without the puck still need improvement after two pro seasons and there will always be question marks about his skating until he proves otherwise by excelling at the pro level. He played 46 AHL games this past season and was also loaned to the ECHL's Greenville Road Warriors, appearing in five regular season games and 10 playoff games. Bourdon has one season remaining on his entry-level contract, which would pay him $875,000 at the NHL level. He becomes a restricted free agent after the season.
Lehtivuori had a promising rookie year with the Phantoms in 2009-10 but he took a huge step backward this past season. He played poorly and was unhappy living in Adirondack and playing in the AHL. As a result, the Flyers loaned him to KalPa Kuopio (owned by Sami Kapanen with minority interests held by Kimmo Timonen and Scott Hartnell) for the rest of the season. He played OK in SM-Liiga but really didn't do much to suggest that he suddenly became a player who is ready to push for an NHL spot. He has one season to go on his entry-level contact, which would pay him $850,000 at the NHL level. He will become a restricted free agent after the season.
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