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Meltzer's Musings: Goaltending Prospects (Part II of II) |
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At this time a year ago, no one had any idea how long it would take Sergei Bobrovsky to be ready for the NHL. He seemed likely to need at least half -- and probably one full -- season in the AHL to acclimate himself to the North American game. As it turned out, he was a full year ahead of schedule in his development.
Bobrovsky played very well during stretches of his NHL rookie season, although he was inconsistent in December and the second half of the season. There are areas of his game in which he still needs work -- tracking and handling the puck, not committing himself to the butterfly too early, adjusting to partial deflections -- but he clearly has the potential to develop into an above-average starting NHL goaltender.
When it comes to assessing prospect depth in the system, you can't overlook young players who have already graduated to the NHL. Beyond Bobrovsky, the pickings are slim yin the Flyers' system. But as long as the organization shows patience and he keeps progressing -- a year or two of backing up a veteran should not negatively affect him in the long term -- the Flyers should be OK in goal over the long term.
In an ideal world, of course, the Flyers would have goaltending prospect depth similar to Nashville or Vancouver.
Not only do the Preds have an elite goalie in his prime in Pekka Rinne, young backup Anders Lindbäck has the potential to be every bit as good as Rinne in years to come. Farmhand Jeremy Smith also appears to be NHL ready now. While former first round pick Chet Pickard has struggled so far in his pro carer, he still has high-end potential, and the Predators can afford to patient. In Vancouver, not only does the club have highly regarded 25-year-old Cory Schneider backing up Roberto Luongo, they also have up-and-coming Eddie Läck waiting in the wings in the AHL.
Prospect depth is no guarantee of long-term success. The Flyers learned that themselves in the late 1990s (see yesterday's blog) when they appeared to have four high-end NHL goaltending prospects in the system simultaneously. Unfortunately, while all of them played in Flyers uniforms at the NHL level, none proved to be a full-time NHL starter.
Even so, the more depth there is in the system, the more flexibility there is in asset management and the greater the chance someone will emerge as an impact player at the top level. If Bobrovsky does not continue to develop, the Flyers will need to hope that Niko Hovinen proves to be a steal.
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There has been an ever-increasing trend over the last 10 years to draft big-framed goalies such as the 6-foot-7 Hovinen. The potential advantages are obvious but it is often a laborious development process at the position that already typically requires a longer gestation period that any other.
By the time Hovinen started to harness his extremely raw athletic abilities at the SM-Liiga level -- a process that is still ongoing -- he was no longer property of the Minnesota Wild. The Flyers signed him to an three-year entry level contract last month. The plan is for the 23-year-old Hovinen to play next season with the Lahti Pelicans and then come over to North America in 2012-13.
Hovinen's goaltending coach, former NHLer Pasi Nurminen, has been a huge help to the young goalie. Before the last season or two, the knock on Hovinen was that his mechanics were a mess and he was prone to giving up extremely soft goals. That's all part of the learning process, especially for a tall, lanky goalie who is all arms and legs.
This past season, Hovinen's emergence was one of the few bright spots in what was otherwise a horrendous season for the Pelicans. He earned a third-string spot on Finland's gold medal winning roster at the 2011 IIHF World Championships in Slovakia.
Over the next couple years, we will start to see if Hovinen is capable of duplicating the success of other big goaltenders such as the 6-foot-5 Rinne or the 6-foot-6 Lindbäck. He remains something of a dark horse prospect, but is definitely an intriguing one.
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The Flyers also retain the rights of soon-to-be 23-year-old Czech goaltender Jakub Kovar. Like Hovinen, he was a backup goalie at the World Championships this year. Kovar is coming off a breakthrough season in the Czech Extraliga that saw him start all 52 regular season games and rank near the top of the league in most statistical categories. He was also strong in the playoffs, compiling a 1.79 GAA and .947 save percentage in 6 games.
Unfortunately, the caliber of play in the Czech league has dropped significantly in the last 15 years. It is no longer among the top 4 leagues in Europe. Most of the top Czech players playing in Europe go to the KHL, the Swiss National League or Elitserien, because those leagues all pay better. The fact that Kovar -- who returned home after flopping in the OHL and losing his World Junior Championships starting job to Michal Neuvirth -- is still playing in the Czech league is indicative of his slow progress until this season.
I have a feeling that Kovar is becoming the type of player who will have a better career in Europe than he would if he tries to come over here. For one thing, he stands to earn more money in Europe than he would on the minor league end of an entry level contract. For another, he plays very deep in his net and had problems coping with players crashing his net when he was in the OHL.
That said, if Kovar continues next season to prove he's a workhorse goaltender, it is possible the Flyers or another organization could have interest next summer. But he'd have to be willing to work his way up from the minor leagues here -- with absolutely no guarantees of an NHL opportunity -- rather than staying home to earn more money in the short-term while enjoying his status as a rising star.
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It will interesting to see what the Flyers do with Johan Backlund in the months to come. At age 30, he is no longer a prospect and he's coming off a lost season. Backlund was slow to recover from off-season hip surgery last summer and he struggled mightily with the Phantoms. When Michael Leighton was waived and sent to the AHL -- a scenario that appears likely again next season -- Backlund lost his starting job.
The Flyers have paid lip service to Backlund competing for a backup job with the NHL club this season. But he'd have to beat out Bobrovsky and Leighton. Either way, he's going to earn a guaranteed $800,000 because the final season of his contract becomes a one-way deal regardless of whether he spends the year in the NHL, the AHL or is loaned to a European team for the season. The last option appears the most likely, unless Leighton's injury concerns compel the organization to keep Backlund around.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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