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Meltzer's Musings: Silly Season in Full Force

June 11, 2011, 1:13 PM ET [ Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Several people have questioned whether my math was correct in saying that the Flyers can afford a contract for Ilya Bryzgalov without trading a core player such as Jeff Carter this offseason.

Here's the math again, broken down step by step this time with the Capgeek calculator:

* If the cap ceiling goes up by $3 million to $62.4 million, the Flyers would have $3,430,845 in available cap space ($58,969,155 in allocated payroll that counts against the cap).

* This figure represents 18 players, including Ian Laperriere ($1,166,667) and waiver candidates Michael Leighton ($1,550,000) and Jody Shelley ($1,100,000).

* If the Flyers dealt Kris Versteeg for a draft pick and/or prospect who will not play in the NHL this season, they would free up $3,083,333 in additional cap space, bringing the total free cap space to $6,514,178 for 17 players.

* Let's assume it would take a $6 million cap hit to sign Bryzgalov (although his actual salary for the season could be up to $8 million but his cap figure could be about $5.5 million or even $5 million depending on the length and terms of the contract). Now the Flyers have $514,178 free and 18 players.

* The team is allowed to go 10 percent over the cap -- a maximum of $68.4 million -- until the start of the season. In practical terms, figuring that the team will waive Leighton and hopefully get LTIR status for Laperriere at the end of the preseason, that means the club has $3,230,845 of cap space with 16 players on the roster if Bryzgalov's cap hit is $6 million. At a $5.5 million cap for the goalie, it's $3,730,845 of cap space. At $5 million, it's $4,230,845 of cap space.

* Let's suppose that it takes a combined $1.75 million to get RFAs Andreas Nodl and Darroll Powe resigned. The Flyers now how 18 roster spaces filled and $1,480,845 of cap space if Bryzgalov has a $6 million cap hit ($1,980,845 at a $5.5 million hit, and $2,480,845 if the goalie's cap hit is $5 million).

* If the team were to subtract Jody Shelley via waivers before the season, they have a practical cap space of $2,580,845 (at a $6 million cap hit for Bryzgalov) with 17 roster spaces. In order to be cap compliant, the team may need to carry just the minimum 12 forwards and 6 defensemen and would be unable to resign either UFA Ville Leino or RFA Dan Carcillo. The remaining roster spaces would be occupied with inexpensive players from the Phantoms -- such as Tom Sestito, Zak Rinaldo and Ben Holmstrom.

Is this an ideal scenario? No, it isn't. But the Flyers are not financially "forced" to deal Carter and, as a result, any trade that would involve him would be for fair value and not a mere salary dump (as an individual deal for Versteeg may well have to be). The price for acquiring Carter would be high because numerous teams would be dangling intriguing offers.

For the record, I still think that the Flyers will keep Carter and try to find other ways to create some flexibility under the cap. But let's play a "what if" game.

A team like Edmonton would either have to offer the first pick in this year's draft -- which I think the Flyers would use on Adam Larsson for the reasons I outlined yesterday (Pronger's age and health, Timonen's age and nagging injuries, the impending UFA status of Braydon Coburn and Matt Carle after the 2011-12 season) -- or else they would have to part with one of their crucial building block players such as Jordan Eberle or Magnus Paajarvi. The same thing goes for other teams. Acquiring Carter would mean making some painful decisions, giving up something of significant value to acquire a first-line caliber player.

One team that could wind up being a good trading partner for the Flyers is the Florida Panthers. The franchise still has to spend almost $30 million just to get to floor of the salary cap and they also have the third pick in this year's draft.

The Panthers are said to be interested in acquiring Versteeg, which would make since given that Dale Tallon is very familiar with the player. I don't think the Flyers would end up recouping much value (certainly not a first round pick) for Versteeg alone, but I would be in favor of a deal that creates the room to get Bryzgalov signed.

On the other hand what if it were a larger deal that involved a player like Carter also going to Florida as well as Versteeg? As the centerpiece of the package, Florida could offer Philly a choice of the third overall pick in the 2011 draft (in which the Flyers may get to choose between Larsson and Gabriel Landeskog) or the rights to last year's third overall pick, unsigned defenseman Erik Gudbranson.

The Panthers also have some interesting players on their NHL roster such as 25-year-old RFA forward Mike Santorelli (who earned just $600,000 on the cap last season and is line for a significant raise, but nothing on the order of Carter's $5.25 million) or David Booth (and, no, there wouldn't be any hard feelings between Booth and Mike Richards).

Here's another hypothetical alternative, which depends on the Panthers' outlook for resigning Tomas Vokoun (who reportedly prefers to stay in Florida): Goaltending prospect Jacob Markstrom ($1.3 million) is still regarded as a future NHL number one goalie within a few years but the 21-year-old had his share of ups and downs in his first pro season in the AHL last year. Veteran backup goalie Scott Clemmensen ($1.2 million) is signed for one more season before becoming a UFA.

If Florida were interested in Sergei Bobrovsky ($1.75 million) and offered Markstrom -- or else, offered Clemmensen to back up Bryzgalov next year but also sent additional draft pick or prospect assets along in a blockbuster deal that involved Carter -- would you do it?

I still don't know if I'd pull the trigger on a Carter trade but a deal that sent Versteeg and Bobrovsky to Florida for a draft pick and Markstrom is something that I would do.

Bobrovsky is the better young NHL goalie at this moment, which could be helpful to the Panthers depending on what happens with Vokoun (although Markström arguably has the higher long-term upside -- but that remains to be seen and Bobrovsky has a full NHL season under his belt). With Bryzgalov aboard for the next 4-6 seasons, you aren't necessarily worried about the next year or two for the Flyers. Markström has a slightly lower cap hit right now because of Bobrovsky's bonuses. The Swede is also coming knee surgery but should be fine physically next season.

Also, even if the prospect were to spend another year developing in the AHL following a trade to Philadelphia, the Flyers could obtain an inexpensive backup goalie for Bryzgalov, perhaps even resigning Brian Boucher at the same $925,000 he made last season.

Of course, if the 35-year-old Vokoun re-ups for a few more years in Florida, they'd probably be better off holding onto Markström and perhaps seeing during the season if they can find a team looking for a decent veteran backup like Clemmensen who has an expiring contract at the end of 2011-12.
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