Wanna blog? Start your own hockey blog with My HockeyBuzz. Register for free today!
 

Meltzer's Musings: Waiting Game

July 5, 2011, 8:20 AM ET [ Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
My comment on the post-July 1 phase of rumors about the Flyers pursuing Steven Stamkos is the same it was prior to the start of free agency: The team does not have the salary cap space to afford him without creating additional holes on the roster nor is it in an advantageous position to put together a trade that would actually get the team closer to the Stanley Cup.

If Tampa is unable to sign Stamkos and starts listening to trade offers, the price is going to get very steep.

If I were Steve Yzerman, I would start the discussions with Paul Holmgren by demanding Giroux in any deal, even as the Flyers dangled some combination of assets that includes Brayden Schenn and/or Sean Couturier, additional first-round picks.

If I were Homer, I'd say, "I'll have think about Giroux and get back to you. If we're going to do this, it's got to be a one-for-one trade."

The reasoning: This deal would send Tampa a 23-year-old All Star with 90-point potential and a signed contract for the next three years at a reasonable $3.75 million. He also has a big playoff run to his credit when the Flyers reached the Final in 2010.

Stamkos is 21 and a better player -- not "just" an All-Star but a potential Hart Trophy candidate. But he is also unsigned and will command a much steeper cap hit than Giroux, effectively tying up cap space that could be used to meet other needs. With Giroux locked up at $3.75M for three years, Tampa could re-sign Victor Hedman (a restricted free agent after 2011-12) without being vulnerable to an offer sheet.

The cap space differential is really what's paramount here in assessing a one-for-one trade debate. For at least the next three seasons, the difference between Giroux's cap hit and Stamkos' likely one is the difference between being able to add or keep an additional useful player. That's why the Flyers should be very hesitant to move Giroux in any deal.

While Brayden Schenn is a prospect whom any NHL team would be interested in acquiring, he also carries a $3.11 million cap hit (counting all bonuses) in his entry-level contract. Whom would YOU demand if you were Tampa -- the proven young All-Star at $3.75M or the rookie with 8 games of NHL experience at $3.11M on the cap? I would say send Giroux or we'll get a better offer someplace else.

Also keep in mind again that the Flyers won't be the only team involved in this process. Therefore, if I were Yzerman, I would look to extricate as much as possible from any trading partner. Even if Giroux-for-Stamos were agreed upon, I'd still ask for Sergei Bobrovsky as well, because he'd be useful to my team and I know the Flyers wouldn't view it as a deal-breaking demand.

Reason: Dwayne Roloson is ancient and only signed for one more year. Bobrovsky would get his fair share of playing time next season, and the Bolts could evaluate his readiness to take over -- even at some point during the 2011-12 season -- as their starting goalie.

If I were Paul Holmgren, I would have no problem dealing Bob. Ilya Bryzgalov is signed for a long, long time. A $1.75M cap hit for Bobrovsky is fine if you expect him to start in the near future, not so much as a backup goalie for years to come. There are cheaper veteran options still on the free agent market. Or else the club could live with Michael Leighton ($1.55 million) or Johan Backlund ($800,000) as the backup for one year.

But Giroux and Bobrovsky for Stamkos would be a hell of a lot for the Flyers to give up and, considering the fact that the Flyers would ultimately be giving up a lot of cap space for the next three years, I would still be extremely hesitant and lean toward saying no. If Tampa also asks for draft picks on top of it, I would immediately say forget it.

Could the Flyers conceivably be able to trade for Stamkos with packages of trades that do not include Giroux or James van Riemsdyk? Perhaps, but then it would truly be a bidding war situation that would likely turn into a mini version of the 1992 trade for Eric Lindros.

When all is said and done, I still think the cost of acquiring Stamkos would be too high. The Flyers would be better served as a team to focus on their short-term need for a big third-line center and/or their need for a long-term succession plan for their aging top two defensemen. Holding onto their existing cap space once Wayne Simmonds is resigned would give the team flexibility to make in-season moves.

Once again, the bottom line here is that it is still probable that Tampa is ultimately able to come to terms with Stamkos. If they are not, I'm doubtful that the Flyers are the right trading partner. It's a waiting game right now and, for once, I hope the Flyers exercise patience and caution.
Join the Discussion: » Comments » Post New Comment
More from Bill Meltzer
» Lightning Strike Takes Down Jets
» Practice Day, Ersson, Jay Greenberg, A Personal Note
» Flyers Gameday: Game 12 vs. BOS
» Wrap: Brink Lifts Flyers over Blues, 2-1
» Game 11 Preview: Flyers vs. STL