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Meltzer's Musings: Ranking the Flyers Top 10 Prospects

August 6, 2011, 11:18 AM ET [ Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
If you had to rank the Flyers' top 10 prospects, would you put Brayden Schenn or Sean Couturier in the top spot? In terms of long-term potential, it will take years to know player makes a greater offensive impact.

The draft-day buzz on Couturier was that his future role was likely closer to that of Jordan Staal (i.e. a shutdown defensive center with 50-point offensive ability) than Eric Staal (i.e. a top-line caliber capable of at least 75 points per season). That's just a projection, based primarily on the fact that Couturier's offensive stock did not increase from his 2nd QMJHL season to his third. A year from now, the projections could just as easily once again be as a future first/second line center instead of "just" an ideal 3rd liner. We'll see.

Here's how my top-10 would round out, with the two closest players who missed out ranked 11th and 12th:

1. Brayden Schenn: He already has had an NHL cup of coffee and has played very well against AHL competition as well as dominating junior hockey. Schenn is eminently capable of matching or surpassing Mike Richards' rookie totals and then building from there in the years to come.

2. Sean Couturier: The Flyers' first-round pick in the 2011 Entry Draft would benefit by playing in the AHL this season, but the rules don't allow it. His performance at the 2012 World Junior Championships may be more important than his play in his fourth QMJHL season (assuming he doesn't wind up in the NHL out of training camp, which is at least an outside possibility).

3. Erik Gustafsson: He was a little inconsistent in the AHL last season, but closed the year strong and made his NHL debut in the process. There's no question that he has NHL-caliber puck-handling and skating ability, but is he defensively strong enough to hold down a third-pairing spot? Has he added enough muscle to compensate for his lack of size in battles around the net?

4. Eric Wellwood: He has the speed to be a solid NHL role player, plus the ability to score a few opportunistic goals. But will that be enough to compensate for a lack of size and muscle?

5. Tom Sestito: He's ready to play on an NHL fourth line as a banger who will also drop the gloves. The big winger also has decent hands but won't score many goals at the NHL level. He is subject to waivers if the Flyers send him down to the AHL. Will he earn a spot on the big club or will the club have lost a decent pro prospect (2010 third-round pick Michael Chaput) for nothing?

6. Matt Read: You can't argue with his outstanding play for the Phantoms late last season after completing his collegiate career. But he's late in his prospect years (age 25), undersized, and may be better suited to a scoring line assignment than a defensive role. Is he an AHL-NHL tweener or the Flyers' next great steal as a rookie free agent?

7. Zac Rinaldo: He has the ability to an effective forechecker and agitator in the NHL, despite his lack of size. But he has to learn to play more under control -- it is not a positive thing that he had more suspensions (four) in his first AHL season than he had goals (three). He possesses a degree of self-confidence that borders on outright cockiness. Will he adjust his game to find an NHL role?

8. Ben Holmstrom: Holmstrom played two games with the big club last season and was one of the Phantoms' best all-around players after the club's horrendous early season performance. He is capable of stepping in and matching or exceeding the job that Darroll Powe did as a versatile utility forward who primarily plays a checking-line wing position. But are there other players with higher offensive upsides who will beat him out?

9. Niko Hovinen: The huge Finnish goalie will likely spend one more season in the SM-Liiga before coming over to (hopefully) assume an AHL starting job in the second year of his entry-level contract. The preseason tournaments are underway in Finland, and Hovinen got off to an amazing start. He started two exhibition games in one day, and registered shutouts against Ilves Tampere (3-0) and Lukko Rauma (4-0). Is he going to be a late-blooming NHL candidate who could make Sergei Bobrovsky expendable?

10. Kevin Marshall: It's now or never for the physical and smooth-skating defenseman, who was the Flyers' second-round pick in 2007 (after the club traded up specifically to draft him). He will be entering his third pro season, and has yet to play an NHL game, which often does not bode well for a position player's NHL future. Marshall's pro-level decision making and positional play are still a question mark. Is this the year he finally takes the next step?

11. Mike Testwuide: He arrived at camp a bit over-hyped last season but he still remains a contender for a roster spot on the big club at some point this season. How much has his window of opportunity closed?

12. Tye McGinn: A potential sleeper prospect. He has good hands and is willing to go to the net, but is a deficient skater. McGinn dominated junior hockey as an overager but will that success carry over to the pro game? Is he a better prospect than two fellow overage standouts in the system, Jason Akeson or Luke Pither?

Notes:

* A year from now, 2011 draft picks Nick Cousins and Marcel Noebels (who has already signed an entry-level contract) both stand a good chance of breaking into the top 10. The rest of the Flyers' lower round draftees, including Petr Placek, need considerable development before they'd be candidates for ranking.

* Brendan Ranford may have the most pure offensive skill of anyone outside Schenn, Couturier or (arguably) Read. But the combination of a lack of size, poor conditioning and lingering defensive question marks knocks him off the list.

* Marc-Andre Bourdon moved backwards last year. After an inconsistent but promising rookie year with the Phantoms, he ended up in the ECHL late last season. He is entering his third pro season.

* Joonas Lehtivuouri also moved backward last season. He played mediocre hockey for the Phantoms and (at his request) was loaned to Sami Kapanen's KalPa Kuopio club in SM-Liiga last year, where he also did not play particularly well.

* Jakub Kovar has become one of the top goalies in the Czech Extraliga but the 23-year-old is not part of the Flyers' plans. He is likely to spend his foreseeable future in Europe. He could be a good KHL candidate at some point.
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