Of all of the Flyers' rookies who stepped up this past season, Matt Read's strong first-year campaign was simultaneously the most and least surprising.
It was unexpected because the player, who will turn 26 on June 14, was not even on the NHL radar screen a few year ago. He is a classic late bloomer. Entering training camp last September, Read had only 11 games of professional experience -- an impressive but abbreviated stretch with the Phantoms at the end of the 2010-11 season -- and was far from a shoo-in to win a job with the Flyers.
What was not surprising about Read was that, once he won a job out of training cap, he was able to sustain his spot in the lineup. A forward his age is pretty much a finished product in terms of NHL preparation. Either he's ready or he's not. Read was clearly ready.
I am a believer in tempering expectations for a player. During training camp, my best-case scenario hope for Read was that he would prove himself to be a latter-day equivalent to Greg Johnson. The worst-case scenario was that he'd be more like Mark Greig; a fine AHL player who could fill in at the NHL level but was not regular lineup material.
A former Flyers' second round pick who never played a game in the orange and black, Johnson was a prolific scorer at the University of North Dakota. An undersized player with tremendous speed and the versatility to play center or wing, Johnson made his NHL debut at age 23 and went to be an effective role player for four NHL teams -- most notably Detroit and Nashville, for whom he scored 14 to 18 goals in five different seasons.
Read, who played in the USHL and four seasons at Bemidji State University (alma mater of former Flames/Flyers center Joel Otto), fits the same sort of body type, role and playing style profile as Johnson. He is defensively sound, speedy and able to move all around the lineup. He plays in all game situations.
As it turned out, however, Read showed more offensive pop in his first NHL season than Johnson did at any point in his NHL career. Read's 24 goals led all rookies in the NHL and his 47 points were three more than Johnson produced in his best season.
In some seasons, Read's performance would have netted him a top-three finish in the Calder Trophy race. Unfortunately for Read, he debuted in a season where there was a host of outstanding rookies. His age and lack of pre-NHL hype no doubt worked against in the voting, as did the fact that the Flyers had several other rookie standouts this year.
Entering the 2012 offseason, there is no longer any question whether Read has a spot in the Flyers' lineup. The question is whether he can duplicate -- or even surpass -- his rookie output next season and beyond. Odds are that he's got a decent shot at duplicating it, but surpassing it will be mighty tough.
I do not expect Read to produce 24 goals on an every-season basis. I do, however, think he can regularly churn out about 20 goals and 45 points. It would be great if he was a little less streaky offensively in both the regular season and playoffs, but it kind of goes with the turf for a player who shuttles between lines and is relied on for support -- not primary -- scoring over the course of the season.
Read spent roughly two-thirds of his rookie season playing wing. I liked him better on the wing than in the middle. When playing center, I thought he got outmatched physically by bigger pivots. Even so, it's still a great thing to have the versatility to fill in at center whenever injuries arise in the lineup.
Teams that hope to contend for a Cup need players like Read. He makes a cap-friendly $900,000 for the next two seasons, and provides a lot of value for the money. Read's signing was a coup for Paul Holmgren and the Flyers.
Just don't be disappointed if Read's rookie output is about the max that he will produce over his NHL career. I think what you saw this season is pretty much what you'll get. I'd be fine with that.
*********
The Flyers are in a strange position this summer relative to planning their salary cap compliance for next season. It is expected that the cap will rise from the current $64.3 million to $69 million.
Even if the salary cap ceiling is adjusted downward in the next collective bargaining agreement, the NHL has already made clear that the teams at or near the ceiling will not be penalized. Their cap figures will be adjusted accordingly. This enables teams to proceed with business as usual over the off-season.
When it comes to salary cap planning, teams have separate considerations for their summer-time cap compliance and their in-season compliance. During the summer, every player under contract counts against the cap. For the Flyers, this includes Chris Pronger's $4.92 million cap hit. However, teams are allowed to go over the cap by 10 percent until just before the start of the next season.
As of right now, the Flyers stand to be in good shape for their in-season cap next year. The summertime cap is a little trickier.
Per capgeek.com, they have about $3,081,627 in cap space (it will grow to $7,781,627 if the cap rises to $69 million). This does not include a bonus cushion, which may or may not be part of the next CBA but was not in place this past season.
The club has two key unrestricted free agents in Matt Carle ($3.43 million on his current deal) and Jaromir Jagr ($3.3 million). The most notable restricted free agents are Jakub Voracek ($2.25 million) and Marc-Andre Bourdon ($875,000).
The team has said that it expects to re-sign Carle, who figures to get a cap figure slightly south of $5 million in his next contract. Whether you personally like it or not, that's the direction the team appears to be heading.
Jagr's status for next season is up in the air. I suspect the odds are about 50-50 whether he'll return. If he does, the team does NOT seem likely to offer him more than a cursory raise. If he hits the open market on July 1 -- and it appears that he will make his final decision on that day, from the early signals being sent out by both sides -- Jagr will have to weigh the Flyers offer against a few that will likely be for more money.
Voracek's negotiation figures to be a difficult one. I will touch upon his situation in the main section of Friday's blog.
Bourdon is likely to get a modest raise on his current contract, but his contract negotiation figures to be a smooth and rapid one. Ditto the other RFAs on the team, which include Harry Zolnierczyk ($900,000), Tom Sestito ($550,000) and Ben Holmstrom ($750,000).
Once Carle is re-signed, the Flyers are going to be tight to the cap, but they will no doubt get creative trade-wise if there is a major move or two they want to make. Something that helps the club in this regard is the fact that the team is actually in decent shape for it's in-season cap.
For instance, although Capgeek.com lists Brayden Schenn's cap hit as $3.11 million, his cap hit will drop (even without a bonus cushion in the CBA) to $1.75 million after the first game of the 2012-13 season. This is due to the
unusual structure of Schenn's entry-level contract, originally signed with the Los Angeles Kings.
Likewise, as soon as the regular season starts, the Flyers will get up to $4.92 million of cap allowance -- if they need it -- to replace Pronger's contract once he is placed on long-term injured reserve.
If it also turns out that Kimmo Timonen's rehab from injury carries him past the start of the regular season, they will get up to a prorated portion of his $6.333 million cap hit during the period that he would be on LTIR to start the season. Of course, this all depends on the nature of his likely surgery/surgeries this summer and actual recovery time. But that is one option that is open to the team if Timonen's rehab is a protracted one.
Coming tomorrow: A look at James van Riemsdyk.
*********
KINDLE USERS: Please sign up for Flyers Buzz. For more information click here.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
Join the Discussion:
»