There was never a question to me whether the Nashville Predators could match the Flyers' offer sheet to Shea Weber. There was enough personal wealth among the ownership group members to do it.
The bigger question was -- and frankly, still is -- whether matching the offer sheet would be the right business move apart from the hockey and PR facets of doing it. All along, I thought the best strategy (for both sides) would have been to work out a trade in exchange for a no-match on the offer sheet.
It is no longer the Flyers' concern that the Predators are on the hook for $33 million to TWO players alone ($26 million to Weber and $7 million to Pekka Rinne) in the next 11 months with up to 12 free agents to re-sign or replace next summer. Even if there is no hockey played next season, Weber would still collect $25 million of it in the form of guaranteed signing bonuses.
The already money-losing Predators' pride just got themselves into an almost impossible fiscal mess, with the situation a lock to get worse before it gets better. They made that choice by matching the offer sheet rather than seeking a reasonable trading solution with Philadelphia that would have kept Nashville at least solidly in the hunt for a playoff spot while adding draft pick assets and not tying their hands financially for at least six years to come.
For the Flyers, the question is what the team should do next: Should they focus first and foremost on acquiring another defenseman who can post 35+ points? Should they try to find a right winger for Claude Giroux, whether via trade for Bobby Ryan or attempting to sign UFA Shane Doan? Or should they stand pat for now, re-sign their remaining RFAS (Jakub Voracek and Marc-Andre Bourdon) and re-evaluate the team's needs closer to the trade deadline?
As of now, the Flyers do not have nearly as bad of a blueline group -- even without Weber -- as some would lead you to believe. Yes, they lost puck moving prowess and 35-point offense with the departure of Matt Carle.
However they made, at absolute worst, a lateral step in terms of own-end defensive play with the acquisition of Luke Schenn and loss of Carle. The former Maple Leaf is also leaps and bounds more physical than Carle and is still young enough to live up to the hype ("the next Adam Foote") that accompanied him into the 2008 Draft. His long-term defensive upside is higher than Carle's, although his recent play in Toronto may not have been better.
As a one-to-six unit, the Flyers could do a lot worse than Kimmo Timonen, Braydon Coburn, Schenn, Nicklas Grossmann, Andrej Meszaros and one of Marc-Andre Bourdon, Bruno Gervais or Erik Gustafsson. Of course it would have been wonderful if the Flyers had gotten Weber. He's a franchise player who is simultaneously a top offensive force, a shutdown defenseman and physically intimidating to the opposition.
Unfortunately, players like that are extraordinarily difficult to acquire. As we have just seen, when a team has a player like Weber, they will go to just about any lengths to keep him. The reality is that the Flyers have to move on.
My big concern is not that the Flyers didn't get Weber. It is what will happen if the aging and banged up Timonen does not come back strong from back surgery or if other nagging injuries wear him down again. I also worry about the blueline's offensive capabilities if 2010-11 Barry Ashbee Trophy winner Meszaros does not have a strong bounceback from an inconsistent and injury-riddled (back surgery) season. Beyond that, I think about Grossmann's knee issues.
In other words, a serviceable blueline very easily could become a major problem unless health factors that are beyond the control of the team and even the players themselves end up working out next season. The offer sheet to Weber was a crystal clear sign that Chris Pronger is never going to play another hockey game again. So don't expect some miraculous return.
I don't really know if there is anything the Flyers can immediately do to strengthen their blueline outlook for next season. There's no one on the remaining UFA list who would be an all-around upgrade on what's already there.
Potential trade targets such as Phoenix's Keith Yandle would be prohibitively costly in terms of opening up other holes. Meanwhile, someone like Yandle is outstanding in some areas but also has bigger specific weaknesses in his own game than Weber. In Yandle's case, there is some defensive trade-off for his offensive prowess. Perhaps the Flyers could work a deal for San Jose's Dan Boyle if he's truly available, but Boyle is 36 years old.
Want to trade for Zach Bogosian and hope that he overcomes his considerable early NHL career struggles and live up to his 2008 Draft hype ("could be as good or better than Drew Doughty")? The cost will still be steep and the risk considerable.
As for offer sheets to players such as P.K. Subban or Michael Del Zotto, forget it. Their teams would match it unless the Flyers were to do something so crazy -- such as offering Suter-like or Weber-like money to the still-developing players -- that it would be a totally unjustifiable hockey decision to devote such a huge chunk of salary cap space to them. It's not even worth discussing any further than that. It's not going to happen.
In terms of long-term blueline targets, the best candidate for next off-season may be Winnipeg Jets' defenseman Tobias Enström, who will become an unrestricted free agent. The little Swede could more or less fill the void that will be left when Timonen is no longer here. He isn't quite as strong defensively as Timonen but he's not bad either.
Enström may also become available as a rental near the trade deadline if the Jets are on the outer periphery of the playoff bubble and the club feels it will not be able to re-sign him before he hits the open market. But that is many months away.
As for looking to bolster the wings, the Flyers no doubt will make their best financial pitch to Doan if he opts on Friday to tell the Coyotes he's going full-steam ahead in considering other clubs' offers. The problem, though, is that Pittsburgh, New York and other teams will also do their best to lure the 36-year-old power forward. It will be up to Doan to decide.
A trade for Bobby Ryan may be tough to accomplish right now, for the same reason as Yandle. Anaheim appears to want too much for the Cherry Hill native. Ryan may want to return home just as Weber was clearly pleased by the idea of coming to the Flyers. But unless his current team cooperates, wishing won't make it so.
That is why I feel that the best option right now is for the Flyers to focus on getting Voracek and Bourdon signed, take their best shot at Doan (without going way overboard in a bidding war) and go into the season with all of their trading assets intact plus a bit of bankable free cap space (and Pronger's LTIR allowance as a last resort) at their disposal.
Final thoughts:Weber is a magnificent defenseman but he's still only one member of a team. Name something that every NHL Conference playoff finalist (let alone Stanley Cup finalist and Stanley Cup champion) has in common? Answer: They got there without a player named Shea Weber.
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