UPDATE: There are
reports in the Czech media, still awaiting confirmation here, that Jakub Voracek is on the brink of agreeing to a four-year, $17 million contract with the Flyers.
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There was not much of note said during Paul Holmgren's press conference yesterday. The Flyers general manager reiterated that he is happy with his team (a line he uses at every one of these press conferences whether a major roster move is forthcoming or not).
Holmgren stated the obvious in saying that the club took its best shot at landing a true franchise defenseman with the offer sheet to Shea Weber, but it didn't work. He then said that he's eager to see how the many young players on the team continue to develop.
Perhaps the most notable pronouncements to come out of the PC:
* There has been progress on the Jakub Voracek contract front, and it's "only a matter of time" until it gets done. The Flyers' plan as of now, according to Holmgren, is to have Voracek open the season on Claude Giroux's line.
* Holmgren still expects Shane Doan to remain in Phoenix when all is said and done, but the Flyers most certainly still have interest if he'd like to come to Philadelphia.
* Asked a question about the team's interest in trading for Bobby Ryan, Holmgren said he couldn't comment about other organizations' players, but that the club will continue to look for ways to improve, preferably without having to subtract pieces. He then closed out by saying, "you never know what the rest of the summer will bring."
That was almost verbatim what the GM said when leaving the NHL Draft in Pittsburgh. In wrapping up a session with the media, Holmgren said the team will continue to look at a variety of possibilities and "who knows what tomorrow will bring?" One day later, the Flyers consummated the James van Riemsdyk trade with Toronto.
I'm not saying the Flyers will trade for Ryan or anyone else right now. It doesn't seem like anything is imminent this time. However, if Philly can't add without subtracting (e.g., luring Doan to Philadelphia), I would think trade temptation would grow in light of the team's frustrations in the RFA/UFA market this summer and the Rangers acquisition of Rick Nash.
Several people have asked me if I think the Flyers will make a late foray into the group of teams with interest in Capitals unrestricted free agent Alexander Semin. After all, the Flyers were never mentioned as a team involved in discussions with Jaromir Jagr last year, and a deal came together quickly.
In Semin's case, however, I don't see a good fit. Jagr brought a Hall of Fame career and lot of desire to be a leader and mentor with him to Philly last season. Semin isn't Jagr.
While the three-time 30-40 goal scorer been a better NHL player than ex-Flyer Nikolay Zherdev (whose signing in Philly was also quite unexpected), there are some of the same work ethic and attitude questions that chronically both Semin and Zherdev.
When he sets his mind to it, Semin is a highly effective player. He's a top-notch scorer and he's not even a bad defensive player. He's had a few strong playoff runs (2008 vs. Flyers, 2009 and, to a lesser extent, 2011) and a few not-so-hot ones. Beyond his stats, teams are leery of him because there are times when he simply doesn't feel like trying.
The 28-year-old Semin is basically the polar opposite of the 36-year-old Doan. The latter brings so much in the way of character and intangibles that teams are willing to overlook the fact that his 30-goal, 65+ point seasons may be behind him now. The former pretty much needs to score at least 30 goals -- even if he's playing in a defensive-minded team system -- to be desirable to clubs.
The Flyers have done much more unexpected things over the years than signing someone like Semin to a contract and hoping he clicks with the talent around him. But if you ask me if I think it will happen, the answer is no, unless the team can't get something done elsewhere and Semin is still sitting on a shelf in the UFA market.
So never say never. Semin could end up a Flyer when all is said and done. But I just don't think there's much interest on either side right now.
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Yesterday on Twitter, I discussed the desirability of trading for young and talented defensemen who have yet to turn the corner and become consistently productive NHL players. Acquire them while they are toward the latter end of their "growing pain years" while they still have not come close to living up to their pre-Draft hype.
Of course, this method does not always work. There are plenty of once highly-touted defensemen like Steve Eminger, who simply never develop beyond marginal NHLers, and ones such as Joni Pitkänen who are no more consistent as veterans than they were as young players.
Nevertheless, if a team is unable to develop its own defensemen, trying to pounce on young players who have had their share of struggles elsewhere will occasionally result in hitting some home runs. For the Flyers, this was most recently the case with Braydon Coburn.
A high-end first round pick by Atlanta in 2003, Coburn struggled to crack the Thrashers' NHL lineup and fell out of favor just enough for the team to trade him to Philadelphia in 2007 for veteran defenseman Alexei Zhitnik. The Thrashers wanted the immediate help toward getting into the playoffs, so they took Zhitnik as a rental in exchange for the still-scuffling young defenseman.
More often, it takes a more valuable trading asset than an aging veteran to acquire these sorts of young defensemen. For example, the Flyers traded a first-round pick to Washington on the draft floor in 2008 to acquire Eminger (but soon realized their mistake and were able to turn around Eminger plus Steve Downie early in the 2008-09 season to acquire Matt Carle from Tampa). This summer, the Flyers traded James van Riemsdyk in a straight-up deal for Luke Schenn.
Much like the 2012 Draft, the 2008 Draft (beyond Steven Stamkos), was considered a defense-heavy crop. There were four defensemen whom The Hockey News touted as potential NHL stars: Drew Doughty, Alex Pietrangelo, Zach Bogosian and Luke Schenn.
Thus far, there have been three star defensemen to emerge at the NHL level: Erik Karlsson, Pietrangelo and Doughty. THN badly missed with Karlsson, ranking the future Norris Trophy winner 71st overall in its Draft Preview issue. Conversely, McKeen's had Karlsson 10th overall, while Red Line Report had him 41st. Ottawa took Karlsson with the 15th overall pick.
In terms of actual development since the 2008 Draft, the next step down from the top four group has thus far been Tyler Myers, Michael Del Zotto and John Carlson (whom Washington selected with the pick the Flyers traded to get Eminger). These players have had some ups and downs but seem on track for long-range stardom.
From there, Luke Schenn and Bogosian come next.
Touted as "the next Adam Foote" and "the best pure shutdown defender in the draft in many years", Schenn was almost doomed to fail in Toronto under the weight of those expectations. There is still every reason for the Flyers to hope that Schenn has a breakthrough defensive year in the next season or two.
Meanwhile, to me, Bogosian is a fascinating case. There have been times in his NHL career to date that he has struggled mightily. Nevertheless, talk to any scout and they all still love both his competitiveness as well as his physical tools to become a dominating two-way defenseman. He just hasn't put it all together yet at either end of the ice, and the aggressive risk-taking that worked so well for him in junior hockey has often resulted in gaffes at the NHL level. Last season, there were signs he was turning the corner but he still needs greater consistency.
To put things in perspective consider this: Bogosian has played 264 NHL games to date. At the same age, Shea Weber had played 46 AHL games and 28 NHL games.
The difference: Nashville allowed 2003 second-round pick Weber to develop at his own pace, remaining in junior hockey until he was 20 and then giving him a half-season in the AHL. By the end of the 2005-06 season, it was clear that Weber belonged in the NHL but no one would have predicted at that point he'd soon become arguably the best all-around defenseman in the league.
Bogosian didn't have the luxury of being brought along slowly. He was rushed directly to the NHL by Atlanta, and he struggled on a non-playoff team. With the team's move to Winnipeg last year, he was limited by injury to 65 games. But he posted 30 points and saw his plus-minus rating improve from minus-27 to minus-3.
A restricted free agent next summer, Bogosian faces a very important season in 2012-13. This may be the year that determines if the player initially touted as having "the upside of a faster, righthanded Chris Pronger" becomes a long-term fixture in Winnipeg or trade bait. Right now, the Jets are in no hurry to unload him but he's not untouchable, either, in the right sort of trade.
I'm NOT saying he's on the market at the moment or there's a trade fit with Philly. Rather,
my point in bringing up Bogosian is that I consider him the prototype of a defenseman the Flyers ought to be looking for in trade.
An established All-Star in his prime such as Keith Yandle will simply cost too much to acquire. A veteran player with a massively bloated contract such as Jay Bouwmeester ($6.8 million) may not require as much going the other way as Yandle, but what is his real upside at this point?
Bouwmeester, the third overall pick of the 2002 Draft, is now 29 years old. What you see is what you get. He's never become the dominant player he was expected to be in Florida. He's never become a shutdown defender and his offensive game has actually gone backward in what should be the prime years of his career.
If I were a GM willing to trade significant assets for a defenseman, I would sooner risk trading someone like JVR or a smaller package of assets for someone like Bogosian than for someone like Bouwmeester.
Is there a risk that the Bogosian-type defenseman will stagnate in his development, the same way Bouwmeester has? Of course. But the upside is greater on the still-growing young player than the 29-year-old. The cost, while significant, is still less than the price of someone like Yandle.
As for someone like Weber, well, we just saw the lengths a team will go to in order to keep a player like him in the fold. So, instead of paying a fortune in salary and bonuses AND gutting the system of assets to trade for the superstar's rights, try instead to go for the still-struggling kid before he lives up to his potential.
Your team might miss, and miss badly. You might end up with a few one-for-one or lesser-package trades that end up looking lopsided the other way within a few years. But, personally, I'd live with that risk because it's the easiest and least costly way to bring in a potential high-end defenseman short of drafting and developing him by yourselves.
It takes a lot of time and patience to develop defensemen properly. Placing recently drafted defensemen in a win-now climate makes the process even tougher. That's part of the reason, I believe, why the Flyers track record with developing their own D-men from scratch has been pretty modest over the years.
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