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Hockey's a volatile sport by nature, and the ebb and flow of production is difficult -- if not impossible -- to project. Players come out of nowhere to produce fantastic statistical seasons one year, then watch as their progression slides out of control in the following season. The alternative -- a tough season followed by a fantastic one -- is just as common.
Two players who took a bit of a beating for their lack of production last year include Buffalo Sabres F Ville Leino and Ottawa Senators F Erik Condra. Although they're factored into different roles for their respective organization, both had disappointing statistical outputs, creating rather negative sentiment concerning their overall play.
Sometimes, these players -- after a frequency of poor production has been established -- will simply wash out of the league. In the case of a player like Ville Leino, who's contract (6Y/$27M) can't be marginalized like Condra's (second-half of a 2Y/$625k AAV deal), the player may have more sticking power, if only because his number is -- at least temporarily -- difficult to erase or move from the organization.
In the case of both above-referenced players, though, there's a better-than-average chance that the same kind of play from one season prior will produce a more desirable normalized output, and consequently, produce at a value more indicative of the contract they were given in a prior year.
Simply put, the two were truly brutalized by poor variance in their favor last year, and over the course of a much longer sample size, that's probably going to normalize.
A player like Ville Leino's going to be held to far superior expectations than Erik Condra -- the direct result of his mega-deal after leaving Philadelphia one year ago. His twenty-five points in seventy-one games with the Sabres last year was wholly disappointing, and the fan base was rightfully irritated by his seeming lack of production.
When looking at Ville Leino's WOWY
(With Or Without You) numbers, though, his lack of production was quite enigmatic. There's a legitimate argument that Leino made the players around him better more often than not, and yet, the points simply didn't turn in his favor.
We're going to use Corsi For // Against % here as opposed to Goals For // Against %, with emphasis squarely on the creation of scoring chances rather than the actual finishing of such for the sake of this blog -- one that attempts to look beyond the poorly established G/A splits from last season.
VL
Column One: Together
Column Two: Leino apart
Column Three: Teammate apart
Right out of the gate, you'll notice that all seven of Leino's most common linemates were substantially worse when away from Leino. Considering how much flak he caught, one could make the argument that Leino's lack of production was moreso on his teammates for failing to deliver, and not the other way around.
In Column Two, Leino was sometimes better and sometimes worse when shifted away from Player X. Without Derek Roy, Leino wasn't nearly as productive. For the most part, though, C1(together) and C2(Leino apart) were pretty balanced, meaning Leino wasn't all that reliable on the play of his other.
It's Column Three that should really stand out. All seven players were worse playing away from Ville Leino than with, and the majority of those numbers -- specifically forwards like Derek Roy, Drew Stafford, and Jason Pominville -- experienced major statistical regression when Leino was absent from the equation.
Also note that Leino's on-ice shot percentage of 7.25% was absurdly low -- nearly a three point drop-off from his run with the Flyers in '10-'11, and good for one of the worst totals of any qualified Buffalo Sabres skater. Leino's struggles to finish didn't help matters, but his linemates' lack of production was just as damning.
With the same kind of ice-driving, puck possession play next season, there's no reason to believe Leino should continue to struggle in the points department with the Buffalo Sabres. Most of his peripheral splits indicate that he was a good player that simply struggled to find the back of the net thanks to a combination of internal and external variables.
Let's look at Ottawa Senators F Erik Condra, who has become quite the strong defensive bottom-sixer for Paul MacLean. Condra's struggled at the NHL level from time-to-time with finishing on scoring opportunities, but much like Leino, his value as a player -- points exclusive -- is probably underrated.
Below, Condra's WOWY numbers.
EC
Column One: Together
Column Two: Condra apart
Column Three: Teammate apart
Yeah, that's an even steeper model than the one we saw with Leino. Condra was actually superior when moving away from his most common linemates(e.g. Smith, Daugavins), and somehow managed to avoid serious regression when stepping away from all-world blue liner Erik Karlsson.
While Smith appears to have a solid grasp of a bottom-six spot on this team, the same cannot be said for Daugavins in the long-term, and judging by these numbers, one wonders just how much a player like Condra carried him at even strength. The drop-off from C1 to C3 is substantial, and the improvement from C1 to C2 is just as major.
Condra may not be suited for a bigger // better role on this team right now, but in a temporary spot, his numbers don't reflect poorly. Condra moved around interchangeably last season, but his output wasn't in high variance when skating with players like Karlsson and Turris.
Condra's playing with far inferior talent than Leino in Ottawa's bottom-six, but he's also skating against weaker competition on average. From the looks of it, the vast majority of Ottawa Senators who played with Condra experienced a positive uptick in scoring opportunity margins -- perhaps a lot of that has to do with Condra's two-way mentality and a potentially underrated possession game.
The underlying numbers are intriguing from Condra's standpoint, especially since the majority of media types and fans -- self included -- have back-seated him in favor of the apparently more offensive-minded forwards (e.g. Colin Greening). With Condra, there aren't the same kind of indicators that he's capable of scoring fifty-points in a season like Leino. However, that doesn't mean he doesn't have sticking power in the NHL -- especially if he's driving play and limiting scoring opportunities on Paul MacLean's checking line.
Ottawa needs all twelve forwards to produce consistently, and last season, Condra didn't necessarily accomplish that end-goal when it came to goals and assists. Much like Leino, though, Condra wasn't really helped much by his poor linemate production -- his 7.91% on-ice shooting percentage was near the bottom with names like Kaspars Daugavins and Chris Neil, two players who aren't known for
much any scoring prowess.
MacLean has two choices with Condra: Continue skating him with the above-mentioned names and hope that Condra's strong play rubs off on them accordingly, or move Condra up into a more beneficial role -- potentially inside of the top-six. The latter doesn't appear like a fruitful endeavor, if only because Condra's skill set would be really overpowered by the majority of the NHL's T6'ers.
Instead, Condra will have to continue adding his value in the defensive game, and simply hope that his consistent production and variance mean progression will favorably move his numbers. His eight goal, seventeen assist season in 2011-2012 didn't win over the fan base, but the criticism -- just as it was with Leino -- feels, at least right now, far too harsh.
The driving point here isn't that Leino and Condra should be absolved of any criticism. It simply speaks to how well they did at driving possession for their team relative to the quality of linemates they skated with and quality of opposition they skated against. Leino finished first among Buffalo forwards in Corsi Relative -- Condra fourth among returning Ottawa forwards. When they were on the ice, positive outcomes happened more frequently than when they weren't. It's really that simple.
Just some food for thought on this Sunday afternoon. Back with more tomorrow.
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