Last season, there were high expectations on Andrej Meszaros to build upon his Barry Ashbee Trophy winning 2010-11 season. As it turned out, Meszaros got off to a slow start in the first two months of the season. He was coming off wrist surgery over the summer and it took awhile to bounce back into form.
Starting in December, however, Meszaros started to hit his stride again. He played some of the best hockey of his Flyers career until sustaining the lower back injury that resulted in surgery and ended his season (except for suiting to to grit his way through the final game of the playoffs). Meszaros' season breakdown:
Oct. and Nov.: 23 GP, 2 G, 4 A, 6 PTS, 18 PIM, +3, 44 hits, 27 blocks, 11 giveaways
Dec. to March: 39 GP, 5 G, 14 A, 19 PTS, 20 PIM, +3, 100 hits, 61 blocks, 17 giveaways
In virtually every important area, from his offensive game to his physical play and puck protection, Meszaros got significantly better as the season moved along until he got hurt. If you prorate his numbers from December until the back injury, it translated to double-digit goals and 38 to 40 points over a full season.
Quite simply, Meszaros was an underrated key to the way the Flyers were more or less able to withstand the loss of Chris Pronger after Nov. 19. The Flyers spread playing time among their defensemen more evenly than most NHL teams. The majority of NHL teams had three or four defensemen who averaged over 20 minutes of ice time per game last season.
The Flyers had five (Carle 23:01, Pronger 22:28, Coburn 22:02, Timonen 21:14, Meszaros 20:39). Despite not playing on the power play, Nicklas Grossmann averaged over 18:40 of ice time per game after his arrival from Dallas.
Now that Carle has departed via free agency and the Flyers have lost Meszaros to a torn achilles tendon for anywhere from about half to virtually the entire of the 2012-13 regular season, the Flyers have a major problem on their hands. They have lost 63 points off their blueline and two minutes eating defensemen.
Luke Schenn is capable of replacing Meszaros' minutes and physical game. Meszaros wasn't always the most reliable of positional defensemen so it's not like Schenn is a downgrade in that area, either. However, Schenn simply isn't capable of putting up anything close to the 0.4 points-per-game that Meszaros did last year.
As for replacing Carle, well, the Flyers really don't have a solution right now. The organization can stick with what they have, and hope that some combination of Erik Gustafsson, Marc-Andre Bourdon and placing more offensive responsibilities on Braydon Coburn's shoulders will make up for a portion of the points. But it's going to be hard to avoid increasing Kimmo Timonen's minutes at a time in his career where his burdens should be lessened during the regular season.
The Flyers had better hope that Timonen's surgically repaired back holds up this season, and his other assorted nagging injuries don't pile up the way they have each of the last two seasons. It takes an awful lot to knock the All-Star defenseman out of the lineup, so you know he was hurting badly in the latter part of 2012-13. The team also hopes that Grossmann, who has been prone to knee injuries the last couple years, holds up.
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Even with the free agent signing of Bruno Gervais, it is clear that the Flyers need to take additional steps to improve their defense corps. The problem right now is that the remaining UFA pickings are pretty slim (and weren't all that great to start with beyond Ryan Suter) and the trade market is unfavorable to teams looking to acquire defensemen.
During draft weekend, it is believed that the Flyers inquired to Phoenix about the availability of All-Star defenseman Keith Yandle. Unfortunately for Philadelphia, the price tag was believed to be in the same ballpark of what Nashville wanted (pre-offer sheet) for Shea Weber: a combination of Sean Couturier, James van Riemsdyk or Brayden Schenn and more. The astronomical price tag is likely why the Yandle rumors died down in a hurry and the Flyers decided to make the one-for-one van Riemsdyk for Luke Schenn deal the next day.
Now that everyone in the NHL knows that Meszaros is going to miss considerable time next season, the price tags even on overpaid/underachieving defensemen (can you say Jay Bouwmeester?), one-dimensional players (Jordan Leopold) and overpaid/aging former stars (Sergei Gonchar) are not going to be buyer-friendly for the Flyers.
Some folks have said the Flyers should attempt to sign a top young restricted free agent defenseman -- Washington's John Carlson, Montreal's P.K. Subban or the Rangers' Michael Del Zotto -- to an offer sheet. That is unlikely.
The Capitals, Canadiens and Rangers all have the financial wherewithal to match an offer sheet without their owners putting themselves in a bind to use their personal wealth the way the Predators had to. The Caps, Habs, and Blueshirts also have plenty of cap space under the ceiling, so that's not an issue that would hamper them, either.
In fact, the only offer sheet that might work to land one of these three players is one that is so ridiculously beyond their current values that it wouldn't make hockey or cap sense to match it. Carlson, Subban and Del Zotto are all coveting deals in the same range as the extension the Sabres gave Tyler Myers (7 years, $38.5 million, $10 million signing bonus, $5.5 million cap hit).
Even if the Flyers offered the RFAs the exact same deal that Myers got, their current teams would match it. They'd match it while cursing Holmgren for driving the price beyond what they felt the player is currently worth (which is all three still remain unsigned on Aug. 8).
So what type of deal would the Capitals, Canadiens or Rangers NOT match? One that is just so outlandish that there's no conceivable way for ANY team to justify it. I'm talking one that pays the RFA something close to Suter/Weber range.
Ask yourself this: Why on earth would the Flyers or any other team pay John Carlson, P.K. Subban or Michael Del Zotto like they are bonafide Norris caliber defensemen at this point of their careers? Even the price on Suter was greatly inflated, and he was an All-Star defenseman who was an unrestricted free agent.
So forget about offer sheets. It won't happen. Weber was a special case and a particular circumstance.
At this point, the Flyers' may have to sign an unrestricted free agent who wasn't initially in their plans or simply stick with what they have and see how the season goes. Among the available UFAs, this is good as it gets:
Carlo Colaiacovo (Age 29): He has a similar skillset to Carle, but has been very injury prone, especially in recent years.
Matt Gilroy (Age 28): The former Hobey Baker Trophy winner has puck moving ability and some offense ability but has been inconsistent offensively and suspect both physically and defensively at times.
Michal Rozsival (Age 33): Has shown offensive prowess in the past -- including a pair of double-digit goal, 38+ point seasons with the Rangers -- but is prone to horrific gaffes when he tries to play wide-open hockey. When he plays more conservatively, he can be more effective in his own of the ice, but sacrifices most of his offensive game. Roszival is also on the wrong side of 30, coming off a major injury, and entered the free agency period actually hoping to get a raise on the $5 million he made in his last contract. When healthy, however, he can play 20 minutes per game.
Cam Barker (Age 26): Barker was very highly regarded just a few years ago when he was the third overall pick of the 2004 Draft. He seemed to blossom with a 40-point season with the Blackhawks in 2008-09. Ever since then, he has struggled mightily with both injuries and consistency -- to the point where he is now basically a reclamation project for his next team. He's big but is not physical at all and his speed was never an asset even before a serious ankle injury.
Scott Hannan (Age 33): Reliable, physical-yet-disciplined, durable and defensive-minded, Hannan has spent all but part of one season in the Western Conference. He'd help any NHL team's third pairing, especially if paired with a young puck-mover. But you won't get any offense out of him. Can be beaten wide on the rush, but generally knows how to play within his limitations.
Jaroslav Spacek (Age 38): He has been a reliable two-way defenseman for years. Not physical at all but he gets the job done. Injuries have started to mount, and he has missed 67 games over the last three seasons. He is still very good at making the first pass out of the zone on breakouts and is well-liked in the locker room.
Brett Clark (Age 35): A very accomplished shot-blocker who had some Matt Carle-like offensive seasons in the prime of his career in Colorado. He's coming off a terrible season with the Lightning, however. Average size but good mobility. So-so positional defenseman and suspect in the physical department.
Kurtis Foster (Age 30): Probably has the best pure shot of all the UFAs. That's his greatest asset. He is huge (6-foot-5, 225 pounds) but plays small. In the defensive zone, he's suspect both positionally and physically. To be fair, he may be capable of more if he can ever get healthy, but injuries seem to pop up every season. Bounced between four teams in less than three seasons after leaving Minnesota the first time and ended up back with the Wild last season.
Steve Eminger (Age 28): The Flyers have an open-door policy at the SkateZone during the summer, and ex-Flyer Eminger has been working out in Voorhees. That does not necessarily mean he will be signed by Philly but that possibility is there. At this point, no one expects him to live up to the hype that accompanied him into the NHL -- and convinced the Flyers to trade the 2008 first-round pick the Caps used to select John Carlson. Eminger is strictly a third-pairing defenseman who has never turned his tremendous physical tools into NHL-level performance. Had injury issues with the Rangers last year, but was serviceable on their third pairing when healthy.
Apart from Eminger, there are several other UFA defensemen with previous Flyers' ties whose games should be familiar to Philadelphia fans: 31-year-old Randy Jones, 32-year-old Jim Vandermeer, 35-year-old Mark Eaton, 35-year-old Pavel Kubina, and 40-year-old Sean O'Donnell.
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The Flyers are expected to announce the signing of RFA defenseman Marc-Andre Bourdon within the next few days. After his contract his completed, the team should have about $2.6 million of cap space beneath the temporary $70.2 million salary cap ceiling. They could free an additional $1.1 million by waiving Jody Shelley.
If the Flyers need to exceed the salary cap during the year, Chris Pronger's LTIR allowance would be a maximum of $4.9 million. Meszaros' LTIR would be a maximum of $4 million.
In other words, the Flyers are fine cap wise if they want to sign a UFA defenseman. They could also opt to go into the year with banked cap space plus the two LTIR allowances as fallback, which would enable the club to afford pretty much any cap hit in the NHL and remain cap compliant.
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