If I had identify which Flyers players are the most vital to the team's success next season, veteran defenseman Kimmo Timonen would be right near the top of the list. One the one hand, it is paramount importance that the team keep the 37-year-old reasonably healthy for the stretch drive and playoffs. On the other, with the departure of Matt Carle and the Andrej Meszaros injury, Timonen's burden may actually increase.
Coming off a season in which he earned his fifth selection to the NHL All-Star Game (fourth actual participation) and third Barry Ashbee Trophy, Timonen nevertheless struggled with a variety of nagging injuries. His consecutive game streak came to an end at 248, and he ended up sitting out a total of six games and taking maintenance days and injections in order to be able to play in the playoffs.
After the season, Timonen underwent back surgery. There were also reports in Finland that he had knee issues during the playoffs; however, these were apparently treated through rehab rather than surgery. The player is said to have progressed well over the summer and will be ready for training camp if it begins on time.
Nevertheless, there is still reason to be concerned about the fearless Finn's ability to continue to withstand the pounding that he takes out on the ice. For purely health-related reasons, a shortened NHL season resulting from a lockout that stretches into November or December could actually be a boon to Timonen later in the season.
The Flyers have tried to be mindful of managing Timonen's minutes. If you look at the TOI distribution of the defense corps last season, Timonen's average 21:14 ranked third (fourth if you also include Chris Pronger's 22:28). Peter Laviolette and Kevin McCarthy routinely doled out 20-plus minutes of ice time to four defensemen, with Nicklas Grossmann getting about 18-19 minutes (despite not playing on power plays).
So it wasn't so much the number of total minutes that wore down Timonen, who typically maintains a high conditioning level throughout the year. Rather, it was the number of "tough" minutes -- penalty killing assignments, shifts against top opposing lines that start with a defensive zone faceoff -- that became a concern as both the 2010-11 and 2011-12 seasons reached the latter stages. The Flyers will need Timonen to continue to shoulder a heavy load next season.
Timonen, who will turn 38 in March, can be an unrestricted free agent after next season. For those out there who are hoping that once Timonen's $6.33 million cap hit comes off the books next year, the Flyers can use the cap space toward a younger All-Star caliber replacement, here is some sobering news: It's unlikely a suitable replacement will be available on the unrestricted free agent market.
There has been a league-wide trend for teams to lock up their better defensemen in long-term contracts ahead of their UFA eligibility. The crop of 2013 UFA D-men is rapidly dwindling below the level of this year's group (which consisted of Ryan Suter and then a range of lesser D-men). The Winnipeg Jets recently re-signed Tobias Enström to a long-term extension, thereby taking him off the 2013 UFA market. In similar fashion, according to reports from Vancouver yesterday, the Canucks would like to get Alex Edler signed to a long-term extension ahead of the expiration of the CBA; and one would suspect it gets done with relatively little problem.
As a matter of fact, with the direction things are heading, the best NHL defenseman left on the potential 2013 UFA marketplace by the time the 2012-13 season begins may very well be Timonen himself.
Assuming his health holds up reasonably well, I think there's a better than 50-50 shot that Timonen elects to continue his NHL career beyond next season (especially if the 2012-13 season is a shortened one). I could see him finishing his career out in Philadelphia on a couple of one-year contracts or perhaps a two-year deal if the over-35 contract rules change. However, I don't think his cap hit is going to go down much, if at all. He still plays at a high level and will be paid as such.
Around the NHL, teams are not only trying to lock up their potential UFA defensemen, they are also keeping a close watch on what happens with RFA defensemen. Buffalo pre-empted Tyler Myers' RFA eligibility with seven-year deal, paying out a $5.5 million cap hit per season, including an immediate $10 million signing bonus. Ottawa rewarded Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson with a seven-year extension that carries a $6.5 million cap hit.
Meanwhile, the Canadiens (P.K. Subban), Capitals (John Carlson) and Rangers (Michael Del Zotto) are all waiting for the other to commit first in re-signing their prominent young RFA defenseman. But all three will likely re-sign long-term deals before the expiration of the current CBA, and will get deals in the neighborhood of the Myers' deal.
Every team in the NHL knows the terms of the offer sheet the Flyers gave Shea Weber. Nashville was compelled to match the signing bonus portion out of the owners' personal wealth rather than its initial organizational budgetary plan. The Preds did themselves no favors a year ago in not getting Weber signed long-term on his next-to-last RFA go-around. It ended up costing the club exponentially more money this summer and next. A similar miscalculation in allowing Ryan Suter to reach UFA status ultimately resulted in the team losing him for nothing.
Don't think for one second that the new locally based ownership group in St. Louis is not keenly aware -- and extremely afraid -- of some team offering burgeoning superstar defenseman Alex Pietrangelo a hefty offer sheet if he becomes an RFA next summer. If he takes the next step in his development and becomes a top Norris trophy contender (he's not far from that now), Pietrangelo will be in line for a huge contract.
Yes, the next CBA may discourage Weber-like offer sheets. The next CBA could very well impose contract length limits, lower the cap ceiling/floor and put in place a "Weber rule" on signing bonus-to-base salary ratios designed to front-load as much money as possible.
Even so, teams such as the Flyers will immediately look for (and find) loopholes in the next CBA. That much is a certainty. As such, teams like St. Louis (Pietrangelo), Phoenix (Oliver Ekman-Larsson) and Winnipeg (Zach Bogosian) are keenly aware that their top 2013 restricted free agent defensemen could still be offer sheet targets. Unfortunately for the Flyers, the chances of actually landing one of these players are slim.
If there are no All-Star caliber UFAs available and the top RFAs are likely to be locked up in long-term deals, it will become more important than ever for the Flyers to groom their eventual replacement for Timonen from within. Unfortunately, there are no prospects in the system who are likely to have top-pairing NHL potential. That leaves a trade -- which would cost valuable assets -- as the other option.
Bottom line: Even with his health issues and advancing age, Kimmo Timonen remains as important to the Flyers in 2012 as he was the day he came over from Nashville and signed the six-year, $37.8 million deal that will expire at the end of the season.
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