When it comes to the NHL-NHLPA negotiations for a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, I usually steer clear of the debate. I find the whole process frustrating, because so much time gets wasted on posturing rather than actual negotiating.
There won't be any genuine negotiations until shortly before Sept. 15, and there probably won't be any real movement toward a final agreement until part of the season is lost. The stupidity of it all is that both sides already know what points they'll ultimately have to concede and they usually have a pretty good idea where the other is likely to compromise in the end.
Everyone has his or her own opinion on what a final CBA agreement should look like. Personally, I think a workable compromise would look something like this:
* Adjust the required maximum gap between the cap floor and ceiling.
* Keep the cap ceiling fairly close to the current temporary $70.2 million. This is a "win" for the NHLPA, and a competitive benefit to big-market teams willing and able to spend.
* Significantly decrease the cap floor. This a "win" for the NHL and for financially struggling teams that are currently forced to knowingly overpay players just to reach the floor.
* Keep the team-related revenue sharing virtually as is. This is key to getting the profitable teams on board. For example, Ed Snider is hawkish in the current situation not because he wants or needs to significantly scale down the Flyers' current payroll, ]]but because he resents giving Flyers revenues to other teams to spend to the dual detriment of his team. The arrangement drives salaries higher from the bottom up because the floor is set too high and also decreases Philly's leverage in the free agent market.
* Fund the large-scale cap floor drop and small-scale ceiling drop NOT by adjusting the escrow percentage of current contracts. Players already gripe about too much of their salaries going into escrow (I wouldn't like it either if it were my salary) but I don't think the NHLPA will ultimately get its way on having the wealthy teams carry the bulk of revenue sharing adjustments. I'd be very surprised if there's anything resembling a "luxury tax" in the final agreement, either in name or in function.
* Grandfather-clause all current contracts in terms of length and free agent eligibility timeframes but adjust the entry-level contracts and free agent eligibility (both RFA and UFA) to what the NHL proposed for all draftees from 2013 and onward.
Over the life of the next CBA, this will reduce salary escalation and the current pressure to sign top young players to long-term extensions at huge raises that kick in for their fourth or fifth pro seasons. Meanwhile, it will not affect any current NHLPA members. Rather, it will affect yet-to-be-drafted players (who are not the ones the NHLPA rank-and-file are genuinely worried about, regardless of the rhetoric).
* Change the current entry-level system. Give teams three years (rather than two) to sign CHL and European league draftees before losing their rights. Make CHL players (even those under age 20) eligible for the AHL if they have three previous seasons of major junior experience.
* Tweak the current waiver rules. Lengthen waiver exemption to correspond with a five-year entry-level contract. Eliminate the recall waiver requirement or at least require a recall waiver claim to be at full (not half) price.
Would this system be perfect? Far from it. There is no question in my mind that this would sacrifice some of the on-ice parity that exists nowadays. The big boys in the NHL, such as the Flyers, would definitely continue to flex their spending muscles while teams with ownership or revenue issues would operate close to the floor. I way I see it, though, you can't have everything -- cost-control,
On the flip side, longer ELCs and lengthier waits for RFA and UFA eligibility would ultimately enable the teams that draft well to keep their young nucleus together for more years AND at a lower cost. First-round draft picks, especially potential lottery picks, would become a more valuable trading commodity than they are currently worth.
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Barring additional roster moves or injuries, the Flyers opening-night lineup (whenever opening night may be) is likely to look something like this:
1st forward line: Scott Hartnell - Claude Giroux - Jakub Voracek
Although Jaromir Jagr spent most of last season on the top line, Voracek was on the unit for much of the playoff series against New Jersey. Both Giroux and Voracek are primarily playmakers but if they are able to establish chemistry, the presence of the other player can help each to increase his goal totals.
As long as Giroux and Voracek stay healthy, I think it's very possible that Giroux will achieve his first 30-goal season and Voracek attains his first 20-plus goal season (or at least equivalent paces over a shortened schedule). The Flyers will need another 30-goal season from Hartnell, but even if his total drops from (a prorated) 37 to about 29, four more goals apiece from Giroux and Voracek would offset it.
2nd forward line: Brayden Schenn - Danny Briere - Wayne Simmonds
This trio worked together at times last year, but Briere basically had a revolving door of linemates (after spending virtually the entire 2010-11 season and 2010 playoffs with Hartnell and Ville Leino). Along with injuries, I think that contributed to Briere's down season last year.
Hopefully Schenn can avoid the early-season injuries that plagued him last season. The second-year forward figures to continue the development he showed from the Winter Classic through the playoffs. If Simmonds is to come close to duplicating his career-year of last year, he will need to play in the top six at even strength as well as continuing to receive significant power play time.
3rd forward line: Ruslan Fedotenko - Sean Couturier - Matt Read
Along with Voracek, the combination of Couturier and Max Talbot proved crucial (at both ends of the ice, but especially the defensive end) to the Flyers' first-round playoff win over Pittsburgh. If Briere is moved to right wing, there is a chance that Couturier could move up into the top six to start the season, with Simmonds going to the third line. There is also a chance that Read could open the year on the second line. Part of Read's value to the team is his ability to play any position or on any line. Likewise, Talbot can and will switch between third-line winger and fourth-line center during the season. Fedotenko remains a serviceable grinder who plays a responsible game.
4th forward line: Eric Wellwood - Max Talbot - Zac Rinaldo
If Talbot centers the fourth line, Wellwood may move up to a wing on the third line. Personally, I prefer Talbot as a third-line winger to a fourth-line center, but unless Ben Holmstrom ends up in this spot, the Flyers need Talbot to play center at the start of the year. I gave Rinaldo the edge over Tom Sestito and veteran Jody Shelley in the battle for the final starting lineup spot.
Coming tomorrow: Projected opening night defense pairs.
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