Will there be any CBA progress this week?
I'm still not ready to say the 2012-13 season will be canceled. But I don't have much optimism about this week's NHLPA/NHL owners' meetings. I suspect both sides will continue to dig in their heel and more time will be wasted. I felt that way even before it was confirmed that Jeremy Jacobs will be part of the meeting, and now would (pleasantly) shocked if there are positive post-meeting vibes.
What I fully expect is that both sides will continue to follow a "script" that was established before the NHL even made its bellicose initial offer. Here's what I think will happen after the talks this week are declared a failure.
First, both sides will express disappointment. Each will say its representatives approached the player-owner meetings in good faith, but the other did not.
Next, the Board of Governors will announce a drop-dead date for an agreement, and give Gary Bettman the go-ahead to cancel the season at any point thereafter. They will also continue to make noise about pulling the previous NHL offer off the table if the NHLPA doesn't agree to it "soon" (with no specific date actually being given).
The NHLPA will respond by blaming the NHL for bringing the season to the point of cancellation. The de-certification talk will reach a fever pitch, and proceedings toward that end may get started.
Then and only then will we see one of two outcomes. Option one is that the two sides finally get serious about compromise before the season is canceled. Option two is that both sides continue to play chicken on the train tracks until the runaway locomotive of the 2012-13 lockout runs over both of them.
I still think there will be a season of some sort starting in January; similar to the lockout-shortened 1994-95 schedule. But my confidence in this belief has weakened.
If there actually is a reduced offer presented by the NHL (rather than the threat of one) later this month and/or the NHLPA is banking on the owners' surrender or their fear of de-certification, I will lose my remaining hope for a settlement.
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Would fans accept a shortened season?
The 1994-95 season was a strange experience for NHL fans in general and Flyers fans in particular. After all the frustration of losing the first half of the season, the 48-game season created in January of 1995 ended up producing some pretty entertaining hockey.
There was no midseason lull or "dog days" of the season prior to the stretch drive. While the season was just long enough that a slow start was not necessarily fatal -- the Flyers actually started out 3-7-1 in the first 11 games -- there wasn't a lot of leeway for teams to get on the right track. Subjectively speaking, there seemed to be a higher percentage of games played with "playoff-like" intensity than during a typical "full" season.
In terms of the legitimacy of the final regular season standings that year, consider this: The 48-game 1994-95 regular season standings ended up being very similar to the full 1995-96 season in terms of which teams finished on top.
In 1994-95, the Flyers won the Atlantic Division. The Quebec Nordiques won the Northeast Division (four points ahead of the Pittsburgh Penguins). The Detroit Red Wings won the Central Division. The Calgary Flames won the Pacific Division.
After the season, Quebec relocated. The Nordiques became the Colorado Avalanche, and were placed in the Pacific Division.
In 1995-96, the Flyers won the Atlantic. Pittsburgh won the Northeast. Detroit won the Central. Colorado won the Pacific (with Calgary and Vancouver tying points-wise but the Canucks finishing second based on more wins).
From a Flyers standpoint, the 1994-95 season ended up being a rebirth of sorts. After five years of missing the playoffs, the team re-emerged as a Stanley Cup contender. The young nucleus (bolstered by the additions of John LeClair and Eric Desjardins in the blockbuster early season Mark Recchi team) appeared poised to challenge for the Cup for many years.
The Legion of Doom was born that year. Ron Hextall was reacquired. The team went to the Eastern Conference Finals and put up a hell of a fight in rebounding from an 0-2 series deficit to New Jersey before a heartbreaking loss in Game 5. After the disappointment subsided, hopes ran high for a Cup in the near future.
The 1994-95 season ended being a memorable one in Flyers history for positive reasons. When I look back at that season, I think of the good memories and not of the lockout that wiped out the first half of the schedule.
Of course, there is no guarantee that a shortened 2012-13 season would be a successful one on the ice for the Flyers. But I'd sure prefer to find out by virtue of a shortened season rather than being reduced to the "what ifs" of a canceled season.
I'd be interested in seeing what you think.
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As usual, there is a light schedule of Flyers-related European and prospect games on Monday. Here's a rundown of yesterday's results plus an early game from today.
* ECHL: The Trenton Titans went down to the Elmira Jackals, 6-2. On the positive side,
Marcel Noebels scored a goal and has four goals in his last two games. As expected, New Jersey Devils prospect Scott Wedgewood was in goal for Trenton.
* KHL:
Ruslan Fedotenko scored a goal and skated 20:50 of ice time in Donbass Donetsk's 4-3 win earlier today against Avtobomibilist.
* KHL:
Jakub Voracek was credited with one assist and three shots on goal in 13:16 of ice time as HC Lev Prague downed Amur Khabarovsk, 3-2.
* KHL:
Ilya Bryzgalov was scratched as the third goaltender in CSKA's 3-2 shootout win over Sibir Novosibirsk. Rastislav Stana turned back 35 of 37 shots in regulation and overtime plus two of three in the shootout.
* DEL:
Danny Briere had a goal and an assist but Eisbären Berlin wound up losing 3-2 in regulation to Augsburg. For the second straight game, Berlin was unable to protect a third-period lead. This has been a bit of a sore spot all season for the defending champs.
* Bundesliga:
Bruno Gervais had no points, penalty minutes and was minus-one in Heilbronn's 5-3 loss to the Ravensburg Towerstars. The Falcons enjoyed a 2-0 lead after the first period and led 4-2 early in the third period but were unable to close it out. A late goal and assist by Tampa Bay Lightning forward Adam Hall won the game for Ravensburg.
* EIHL:
Tom Sestito had no points or penalty minutes in the Sheffield Steelers' 7-6 shootout loss to the Cardiff Devils.
* OHL:
Scott Laughton had one assist and
Colin Suellentrop took one minor penalty for the Oshawa Generals in a 3-2 loss to the Sarnia Sting.
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