How would Flyers cope with $60 million cap ceiling?
Yesterday's latest round of delays and stupidity aside, I still feel there will be a settlement before the Jan. 11 deadline set by Gary Bettman. Of course, not even a shred of common sense or sanity has prevailed up until now, so anything can still happen.
Once again, there is plenty of blame to go around on both sides. The lack of negotiating and overabundance of chest-puffing yesterday was more on the PA side, however. I understand the anger over the NHL recently changing the language of previous proposals to weaken penalties for hiding hockey-related revenues. I'm just not sure why it took Donald Fehr so long to spot it, and why negotiations could not resume after the League conceded to go back to the original specifications.
It all seemed like a calculated ploy to reintroduce the possibility of a disclaimer or decertification of the union in order to pressure the NHL to concede all remaining points the PA wants for an agreement.
Speaking of calculated ploys, if you are a Flyers fan, you had better hope that the NHLPA ultimately gets its way on the salary cap parameters for 2013-14 if and when there is a settlement with the NHL. The union wants a $65 million cap ceiling next year in exchange for an agreement not to place a limit on escrow.
The NHL thus far has held firm on a $60 million cap ceiling. In my opinion, their reported rationale is flimsy: The small-market teams can handle a $44 million cap floor next season but a $49 million floor is undoable, even if the escrow portion would put the onus of risk for the difference on the players if revenues do no grow as expected.
I'm not buying it. The cap ceiling and floor that Bettman is so stubbornly clinging to is all about retroactively punishing teams that circumvented the Bettman-driven 2005 CBA. By limiting the number of loopholes (via variance and contract length) and then artificially deflating the cap ceiling, teams like the Flyers will have supported a lockout that not only cost them half a season's worth of revenues but which also created a CBA that runs counter to their hockey operations' best interests.
What will happen this summer to the bigger budget teams of the league if there is a $60 million cap is that clubs will be forced to tear down significant portions of the roster for minimal returns. It means that a number of free agents will have trouble signing anywhere.
Yes, I know teams would be allowed two cap-compliance buyouts. That would not be nearly as helpful as a $65 million cap ceiling, adjusted with escrow to the equivalent of $60 million. When all is said and done, I think the NHL will give in to the PA on a 2013-14 cap at the higher figure or at least closer to it.
But let's assume it's NHL that gets its way and delivers the $60 million ceiling and $44 million floor that Bettman has been pushing for. Where would it leave the Flyers?
Before any potential buyouts but figuring in the salary cap hits that will come off the cap due to unrestricted free agency (
Kimmo Timonen,
Ruslan Fedotenko,
Michael Leighton,
Jody Shelley and
Matt Walker), the Flyers would have $56.56 million committed to 19 players, but would be in need of adding one or two starting defensemen and a backup goaltender at minimum.
Whether the Flyers could buy out
Chris Pronger under the new CBA would depend on whether the compliance buyout could be used on an injured player. If not, the Flyers will once again have to carry Pronger on their summertime cap -- which allows teams to exceed the cap by 10 percent -- and then place him on long-term injured reserve again all next season.
The Flyers could use their second buyout on
Ilya Bryzgalov if he has another inconsistent season, but then they will be in need of acquiring two goaltenders -- including a new starter -- instead of just one. Filling that need doesn't even begin to address the chasm on the blueline due to Pronger's concussion issues and Timonen's free agency and advancing age.
At a $65 million cap with two buyouts or a buyout plus LTIR for Pronger at their disposal, the Flyers would still be OK in making roster moves to address team needs rather than just shedding salary.
At $60 million -- which would be retroactive punishment for back-diving long-term deals such as the one
Danny Briere got in 2007 -- the Flyers would be in some trouble this summer in trying to prepare their roster for 20012-13. In fact, they might have no other choice but to buy out Briere because his $6.5 million cap hit would be unmanageable given all their other impending needs.
Ed Snider has always been one of the staunchest Gary Bettman supporters on the NHL's Board of Governors. But the commissioner's agenda and the Flyers' agenda now clash -- and all at the price of a lockout that has prevented the teams (such as the Flyers) that actually drive the League's economic engine from doing their thing.
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Tonight's Phantoms game against the Connecticut Whale will be televised on The Comcast Network in the Philadelphia area. In tomorrow morning's blog, I will take a look at the Phantoms, as well as the Titans, World Junior Championship gold medal game and results from Europe (at this point we're down to two Flyers still playing overseas).
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