Flyers head coach Peter Laviolette made wholesale line changes at practice yesterday. Afterwards, he
denied that the line juggling had any significance in terms of the lines that will start Sunday's game against the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Nevertheless, given the way the Flyers have struggled all month to score at even strength or score third period goals of any variety, it makes sense that the team would take a look at different combinations during the six-day schedule break between Monday's game in Tampa and Sunday's match in Pittsburgh.
Per the beat writers who attended practice yesterday (I am in Texas until April 9 and unable to cover practices or live games until I return to Philadelphia), Matt Read skated on the Claude Giroux line yesterday, in place of Scott Hartnell. The latter skated on a line with Ruslan Fedotenko and Zac Rinaldo. In addition, Danny Briere was moved off Brayden Schenn's line, in favor of Simon Gagne. Briere skated on the Sean Couturier unit.
The only Flyers regular who did not skate yesterday was Max Talbot, who took a maintenance day. Per Tim Panaccio, Talbot is also mourning a recent death in his family. Harry Zolnierczyk skated in what would normally be Talbot's spot.
Today's practice will be a more telling one in terms of how the forward combinations will
shake out come Sunday. At bare minimum, given the way that Briere and Brayden Schenn have been badly struggling on the same line, it seems likely they'll be separated. It also seems reasonable that the Flyers might want to see if Read's speed can provide a different element in combination with Giroux and Voracek with power forward Hartnell struggling to keep up with the play since returning from a foot injury.
Briere, who strongly prefers to play center, has played a lot of wing this year since returning from a wrist injury and has been ineffective on both the right and left sides. Left winger Hartnell, who was pulled off Giroux's line and skipped on several shifts last game, has also been scuffling to produce since returning from the foot injury.
Injuries or not, the Flyers needed more than a combined seven goals and 19 points in 40 man games from veterans Briere and Hartnell at this stage of the shortened season. They are far from the team's only underachievers but as two big-salary players who are important pieces of the locker room leadership group, their individual struggles get magnified when the club is losing and in major danger of missing the playoffs.
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Whenever the trade deadline approaches, the rumor mill churns at a frenzied pace. Logic and probability go out the window, especially when it comes to disappointing clubs like the 2013 Flyers.
In recent days, there have been a lot of Internet-fueled rumors about teams pursuing Flyers' forward Max Talbot. On Eklund's most recent
rumor chart, he estimated Talbot remaining in Philadelphia as a 10 percent probability; meaning he thinks there's a 90 percent chance Talbot gets dealt by the deadline.
With all due respect to Ek, whom I consider a close friend, that probability assessment strikes me as being way off the mark. While the Flyers will no doubt be willing to listen to offers for most every player on their roster (including those who are not impending unrestricted free agents and those who have no trade/ no movement clauses), the probability of Talbot actually getting moved this year is quite low unless some team offers a greatly inflated return for the role player.
I'd say it's more like a 90 percent that Talbot stays put this year, and then you can divide up the remaining 10 percent chance he gets dealt among the clubs kicking tires with Philly.
Start by asking this question: The Flyers' poor two months of hockey aside, does Talbot still figure to fit in Philly's plans for next year in his current role? The answer is absolutely yes. Coming off his career season last year, Talbot was firmly entrenched in the Flyers' long-term plans entering this season. That has not changed.
Regardless of the player's statistical pace drop-off from his career-best 2011-12 season, Talbot's job is safe. His main role is provide effective forechecking and backchecking and to kill penalties while playing about 15 minutes per game. Talbot has been a key contributor to a penalty kill that has pulled itself into the top six in the league (84.6 percent efficiency) after getting off to a horrific start in the first two weeks.
Recently, Talbot has even had a mini hot streak offensively with three goals in the team's last four games; a stretch akin to some of his offensive spurts of last year that ultimately took him to 19 goals. But, again, Talbot doesn't need to score at an 18-20 goal full season pace to be an asset to Philly. The team would be fine with a 10-12 goal pace from him so long as his bread-and-butter energy and defense game is in order.
If Talbot were to get dealt, is there a clear-cut in house candidate in the Flyers' organization to assume his collection of responsibilities and perform them with equal or superior effectiveness come next year and beyond? No, there's not. That means a replacement would have be acquired in the offseason via free agency or trade.
Talbot is 29 years old. There is every reason to believe that, as long as he stays healthy, he can continue to play his current role effectively for many years to come. We're not talking about some aging vet hanging on for one last run.
Now let's look at the almighty dollar and salary cap perspective.
Talbot is signed through 2015-16, so this is not a "get an asset for an impending free agent" situation. Moreover, he's signed at a $1.75 million cap hit, which is very reasonable for a player who handles his role as effectively as he has for most of his time in Philadelphia. A comparable replacement would not be cheaper.
Finally, we come to the question of what would be the likely trade return Stanley Cup contending teams would offer the Flyers in an effort to gear up for the playoffs. Given everything mentioned above, I suspect that Talbot would command a little higher trade return than other checking line veterans clubs are considering.
Even so, no team is so keen on Talbot that they're going to make the Flyers a grossly inflated offer that would make it a no-brainer to deal Talbot. The ONLY shot at something like that happening would be if Talbot were packaged with other pieces a team would desire from Philly, such as impending UFAs Simon Gagne and Ruslan Fedotenko. In that event, the trade return would be correspondingly inflated to the point where the Flyers might get something that will help them now and in the future in return for sending multiple playoff-proven veterans who already own Cup rings.
From a probability standpoint, that latter scenario seems unlikely to become reality. As such, while it stands to reason that a variety of teams would have interest in adding Talbot for the stretch drive and playoffs, the impetus for the Flyers to accommodate them is minimal. Talbot is still needed here, next season and beyond.
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At the end of the current season, veteran forwards Simon Gagne, Ruslan Fedotenko and Mike Knuble will all become unrestricted free agents. Knuble is not a viable trade candidate anymore, but is it worth discussing whether Gagne and/or Fedotenko should be made available in trade by the deadline.
The Flyers recently reacquired Gagne from Los Angeles in exchange for a conditional 2013 draft pick (a fourth rounder if the Flyers miss the playoffs, a third rounder if they get into the post season). It's no secret that Gagne is happy to be back in Philadelphia, and he has played reasonably well.
Gagne is no longer an all-star caliber player. He is a role player at this stage of his career. But his speed and two-way game are still above-average and he's always been a real solid citizen off the ice. I would not be surprised if the Flyers would ultimately like to bring him back on a one-year or two-year contract, although his current $3.5 million cap hit would need to be downwardly adjusted (for instance, a two-year, $5 million deal that make his cap hit $2.5 million).
There's no need to rush into that decision before July. The Flyers can, and probably will, take the rest of the 2013 season to assess whether Gagne can be part of the roster plan for another year or two and if there are potentially superior options available at a comparable cost. Sentiment and mutual familiarity cannot enter into the decision with Gagne any more than it should be a consideration in the impending decision of whether to keep, trade or buy out Briere, who is one of the most well-liked players in the League.
Alternatively, keep in mind that Gagne has an expiring contract and remaining cap hits are prorated on a daily basis. As such, he may still be a player some other teams may be interested in renting from the Flyers for the stretch and playoffs. Although he probably won't fetch anything north of what the Flyers gave up to LA to reacquire him, the Flyers could conceivably get a third- or fourth-round pick to replace the one that will be sent to the Kings at the end of the season.
Trading Gagne now as a rental would not preclude the Flyers from signing Gagne as a UFA this summer if that's the direction in which the team and player choose to go. It would simply be a case of picking up an extra mid-round draft pick and then making the same sort of assessment after the season that they'd make if he stayed.
From a stability and continuity standpoint, it makes sense to have Gagne stay put the rest of the season even if the team is destined to miss the playoffs. But from an asset management point of view, the Flyers should at least be receptive to listening to offers for Gagne either as a one-up trade target or a multiple piece option.
As for Fedotenko, the odds of him being a Flyer beyond this year are rather slim. He's done his job this season professionally and adequately despite some fans' constant desire to see him scratched. Fedotenko is one of the relatively few Philadelphia forwards who reliably chips pucks out of of the defensive zone and can be counted on to be in the right position to assist on coverages.
At this late stage of his NHL career, Fedotenko has evolved strictly into a defense specialist who plays about 12 minutes per game on average. He is still adept in that capacity but no longer possesses his former ability to provide clutch support offense as a player who can skate as needed on any of the four lines.
On the forecheck, Fedotenko used to create a lot of opposition turnovers that led to scoring chances for his team. That trait hasn't been too evident in Philly, although he is still pretty good at digging out pucks in scrums along the walls. He can, and has, played all three forward positions for the Flyers (although his faceoff taking while at center has left something to be desired).
Apart from playing fewer minutes per game than Talbot and being four years older, what also makes Fedotenko less valuable than Talbot at this stage of their respective careers is Talbot seems to more effectively create extended forechecking shifts and is more regularly in the middle of counterattacking opportunities.
Even so, as a defensively responsible impending UFA rental who was a valuable member of two Cup-winning teams, for whom he stepped up offensively in the playoffs, Fedotenko has a modicum of trade value in a mid-to-late round draft pick range. Barring an immediate Flyers turnaround and a winning streak that stretches into the beginning of April, Fedotenko seems to be among the most likely Flyers to get dealt by the trade deadline.
Fedotenko is yet another Flyers player who is a delightfully nice guy off the ice. It's been good to see him back where his professional career got started, and I enjoyed interviewing him during training camp. He's still the same modest guy with the easy smile and earnest disposition he was as a Phantoms rookie. Likewise, it was enjoyable earlier this season to be able to stand in the locker room earlier this season and simply shut up and listen to Mike Knuble's analytical and well-spoken responses to the beat writers' interview questions.
Unfortunately, hockey is a business. The fact that Briere, Gagne, Fedotenko, Talbot and Knuble are all among the friendliest and most approachable professional athletes one will ever encounter does not enter into the thought process roster decisions.
Knuble has been a frequent healthy scratch of late. There was a false report yesterday that he had been waived by the Flyers. In reality, he was not at practice because he'd been excused to tend to a personal matter.
However, from a bigger picture standpoint, it seems likely that Knuble reached the end of the line of what has been a very solid NHL career that did not truly take off until his 30th birthday approached.
I don't foresee him dressing in many more games for the Flyers. I also can't see any team being interested in trading for him now when there was no interest at last year's deadline or during the offseason.
Nevertheless, he stands out as a true professional who not only made it to the NHL but found a well-defined niche and achieved longevity. I, for one, was glad the Flyers gave him a shot this season at prolonging his career a little longer.
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