2013 Off-season: Upgrading Top D Pairing Is Easier Said Than Done
The more I look at the NHL's likely off-season marketplace, the more firmly I believe that it going to be exceptionally difficult for this team to immediately satisfy the need to upgrade the top defense pairing and come up with an immediate succession plan for Kimmo Timonen as the team's most pivotal blueliner.
There is not a single top-pairing upgrade candidate out there on the unrestricted free agent (UFA) market this summer. Teams leaguewide have taken to locking up their top potential UFA candidates before they ever hit the open market. Most of the notables out there are over age 35 (Sergei Gonchar, Mark Streit, and several others), do not suit the team's primary need (puck-moving, two-way D) or have reputations for inconsistency.
If the Flyers go the UFA defenseman route this summer, they will be looking more at middle tier second-pairing candidates or specialists. There are players who could offer varying degrees of help in addressing team needs but none who will individually be major impact players likely to positively stand out even when the team as a whole isn't playing well.
Winnipeg's Ron Hainsey could be a player of certain interest. He's going to end up being overpaid (nature of the beast for established NHL defensemen these days, especially on the open market) but he can routinely eat 20+ minutes and has a combination of size and mobility.
Another Winnipeg UFA defenseman, Grant Clitsome, is coming off a solid season. I view him as more of a decent number five defenseman option than a second pairing upgrade. However, he did skate nearly 19 minutes per game for the Jets this past year and is adept at moving the puck.
St. Louis unrestricted free agent Jordan Leopold could add some secondary power play presence to supplement Kimmo Timonen. For all the talk about the Flyers needing a new point man for the power play, they've done just fine on the first unit with Timonen at a point and forward Jakub Voracek sliding in from high in the zone. It's the second unit that has no viable presence on the point. Leopold is far from a shutdown defenseman and brings no physical presence, but is just adequate enough defensively to skate regular shifts and is mobile. So at least he'd be a significant upgrade on Kurtis Foster. Personally, though, I'd be happier if the Flyers allowed Erik Gustafsson to try to evolve into the aforementioned support puck-mover/ second power play option starting next season.
Ryan Whitney's stock has fallen off a cliff in recent years, ever since suffering a serious ankle injury in December 2010. Theoretically, he would add a puck-moving presence and offensive threat but his too-frequent defensive issues, lessened mobility and general inconsistency were of enough concern in Edmonton this year for him to spend a stretch as a healthy scratch. He was outspoken about being unhappy in a reduced role this year.
Do any of these players or the
rest of the UFA defense crop wow you? Me neither.
Although the Flyers typically have surprises up their sleeves and there is a huge need to upgrade the top end of the blueline -- especially with Timonen saying he's
"ninety-nine percent sure" he will retire after next season -- I would hope they don't end up employing a similar strategy to the one that failed last summer.
In other words, I think an offer sheet to restricted free agent Alex Pietrangelo would be a waste of time. The Blues' new ownership group will match it. He is also unavailable in a trade. I also don't think St. Louis is going to let another team pry restricted free agent Kevin Shattenkirik away very easily. That is especially if said team attempts to use gunboat diplomacy the way Philly did last summer when talking to the Predators about a potential trade for Shea Weber (under threat of signing him to an offer sheet, which they subsequently made good upon).
To a somewhat lesser degree than Pietrangelo and a roughly equivalent degree to Shattenkirk, Winnipeg is going to be protective of restricted free agent Zach Bogosian. He still hasn't broken through to the franchise defensemen level potential that was predicted before the 2008 Draft but he has matured into a reliable two-way player who logs very heavy ice time. Still just 22 years old, he continues to improve each season and could still realize his full potential in the next season or two if he avoids injury setbacks like the wrist surgery that delayed the start of his 2013 season.
Re-signing Bogosian to a multi-year extension is Winnipeg general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff's top priority heading into the off-season. Prior to the lockout, the team pre-emptively signed would-be unrestricted free agent Tobias Enström to a five-year extension. The deal, which kicks in next season, carries a $5.75 million cap hit and a full no-movement clause.
For this reason, along with an ongoing need to upgrade its forward depth and better establish a two-way identity to their playing style, there are some who believe that the Jets will be receptive to offers for Dustin Byfuglien.
Eklund and I have debated this privately for several months. He thinks there is a distinct possibility this is the direction the Flyers go for their big off-season move of 2013. Ek is intrigued by what Big Buff could potentially do in Philly should such a deal come about. In my opinion, I hope the team stays far away from Byfuglien even if he is available for trade.
Byfuglien might be the most undisciplined player in the NHL, both on and off the ice. I wouldn't want to have to worry about the centerpiece of my blueline arriving at camp out of shape. I don't want a player who has no conception of when to gamble on the ice and when to make the safe, smart play. I have no interest in his frequent after-the-whistle retaliatory penalties committed in plain sight of both referees on the ice. I have no desire to cross my fingers and hope that any given game is one of those nights where he feels like competing and the "good Buff" shows up. I rather not see the team get burned on those night where he's a defensive liability, doing things like repeatedly shooting rockets off the end boards that rebound up high and turn into breakaways or 2-on-1 rushes with his partner scrambling to cover for him.
Last but not least, I have zero confidence that his work habits will ever improve for more than short periods of a time. No thanks. Let some other team pay a premium in trade and then hope they can motivate him to play at his first half of 2010-11 All-Star level.
I am sure that Keith Yandle's name will come up in trade rumors again as well. The problem is that Phoenix general manager Don Maloney is in the driver's seat when it comes to any potential trade for his two-time All-Star defenseman in the prime of his career and signed for three more years. Even with the ownership situation, limited budget and long-term extension given to Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Maloney is under no duress to trade Yandle unless he gets a no-brainer offer.
The reported price tag attached to Yandle is said to be similar to what Nashville wanted last summer for Weber. Thing is, Yandle is no Weber. He's in the next tier down in the League: an offensive defenseman capable of All-Star seasons (Yandle probably would have gone to his third ASG this year had the event not been scuttled by the lockout) but not a serious contender for the Norris Trophy.
Yandle is a fine offensive defensive with very good mobility. Defensively, he's OK but he's far from a shutdown defenseman. He is also one of the least physical defensemen in the NHL, which is workable if he's paired with the right partner but also means a fair amount of goals will get scored on his side of the ice when stick-checking attempts fail. Like most defensemen who handle the puck frequently, Yandle has his fair share of turnovers. He's pretty good at recoveries, however.
If I had a no-other-options choice between paying a king's ransom in trade for Yandle or overpaying slightly less for Byfuglien, I guess I would opt for the former simply because I'd have more faith in Yandle's work ethic. In the real world, though, there are other options.
Here's a novel concept in lieu of making a major move in a time of dealing from weakness: How about exercising a little patience? Given the inflated sticker prices on the top end of both the UFA and trade markets, I would be fine with re-shaping one or two of the 3-to-5 spots from the 2013 season-opening depth chart, giving Gustafsson a chance to run with a full-time NHL roster spot and then re-assessing as the season progresses.
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2013 Draft: Nine Potential Defense Candidates for Rounds 1 and 2
Before I delve into the crop of defensemen who could be candidates for the Flyers to select with the 11th and/or 41st overall picks of the 2013 NHL Draft, let me issue my three standard qualifiers:
1) The Flyers will take the best available player, regardless of position. If the candidate they view as the best player is a center then, yes, they will take another center.
2) I have no idea which specific player(s) will be atop their internal rankings and who might unexpectedly drop to them. All I can do is pass along what contacts have told me and use my own research and judgment to suggest what direction I think they might want to go.
3) If they do select a defenseman in round one, do not expect him to be an immediate NHL impact player even if he makes his NHL debut within a season or two of the Draft. With defensemen especially, the learning curve and development phase to realizing potential is a protracted one that can often last until the player nears his mid-20s. There are also zero guarantees the player (at any position) will ultimately fulfill that promise.
OK, with those redundancies aside, here are six defensemen the team may opt for if they are available and match up to the team's best-available-prospect draft list in rounds one or two. I have listed them in order of my personal preference rather than their Central Scouting or ISS rankings. I have also omitted likely first overall pick Seth Jones.
Please note that I consider the differences to be miniscule among the top three listed players. I would feel comfortable and confident with the Flyers taking any of top three with the 11th pick, would be happy if the traded down just a couple spots and took any of the next three and would consider any the rest to be promising upper second-round possibilities.
Ryan Pulock: In my opinion, Pulock is the defenseman in the Draft with the highest offensive upside after Jones. He may not be the second or even the third defenseman off the draft board, but he'd be the blueliner I'd personally have the highest after Jones.
As I see it, the primary reason why Pulock is not the consensus second-ranked D-man in the 2013 Draft is the chip fracture in his wrist that caused him to miss time this season and knocked him out of the Top Prospects Game. Even after he returned to the Wheat Kings' lineup, he was not quite at 100 percent for several weeks.
Looking beyond the injury, which is now fully healed, there is a lot to like about Pulock's potential. Start with his shooting. He possesses a rocket of a shot, which has been clocked at over 100 miles per hour. More importantly, he gets his shots on the net and doesn't have a long, slow windup. As such, he stands a chance of becoming a top-unit power play point man as he develops in the professional ranks.
Pulock is also fairly reliable on the defensive side of the puck. Forget his plus-minus ranking this year. His minus-seven was a reflection of playing on a bad Brandon club. His defensive game is not yet NHL caliber but is evolving at a satisfactory clip toward that status. In limited viewing exposures, I saw him routinely make a good first pass out of the defensive zone and generally makes the right reads on opposing rushes. All the tools are there to become a dependable two-way defenseman.
Pulock is not the speediest defenseman in the draft class in foot races, but he's not a deficient skater. Likewise, he's not always mean or physical but has it in him to play that way when the situation dictates it. In a mid-November game against Kootenay that I caught via webcast, he threw a pair of crushing hits on a single shift with his team trailing 2-0 early in the game. The Wheaties lost the game, 5-3, but Pulock had nothing to do with any of the Ice's goals and was easily the best defenseman on the ice for either side in that match. He also contributed a power play goal to the effort.
In an age of behemoth defensemen who can also skate well, Pulock's frame (6-feet, 210 pounds) is average sized but far from small. He is considered a very well-conditioned athlete.
A late 1994 birthday player, Pulock was too young for the eligibility cutoff last year. As such, he is one of the older and more experienced (three WHL seasons) first-year-eligible members of the 2013 Draft class. Some may view that as something that works against him but I disagree. He is still plenty early in his projectability cycle, and it's silly to say that a difference of less than a year in a teenage player's birthdate is a significant issue in downgrading his potential relative to his peers.
Pulock probably won't be ready for the NHL next season, but the extra lower-level development time and chance at playing for Canada at the World Junior Championships won't hurt him a bit. He is already the captain of the Wheat Kings, and is considered a hard-worker with future leadership potential in the pro ranks.
When the total package is weighed, I view the righthanded-shooting Pulock as a relatively safe pick (as teenage defensemen go) with NHL first-pairing caliber offensive upside and middle-pairing defensive upside. I don't view any of the other candidates as having the equivalent combination of the two. As such, he'd be my top player after Jones.
Rasmus Ristolainen: SM-liiga games are very hard to view on the Web in North America apart from daily highlight packages from each of the games around the league. As such, the only live-game action I have personally seen Ristolainen play was two of his World Junior Championship games, where he captained the team and looked very solid. The other information comes from a longtime contact in Finland and research.
Ristolainen has played in SM-liiga for two seasons, albeit for a needy TPS Turku squad. He is ranked as a potential top-10 pick in this year's draft because he has a combination of size, aggressive physicality, a heavy shot and good straight-line mobility. He is a right-handed shooter, which is also highly sought by many NHL clubs.
For these reasons, Ristolainen isconsidered a safe pick because of strong potential to play in the NHL in the near future. From there, it remains to be seen how he handles the learning curve.
Despite what you may have seen in an oft-circulated highlight package, Ristolainen isn't going to make many dazzling offensive plays. Every once in awhile, he'll do something jaw-dropping but that not the norm. He's more of a physical defenseman who also has some power play upside.
While it is possible his offensive game could surge, he is not on a standard track that one typically sees of a future top-unit NHL power play quarterback. He's more a PP2 candidate. Ristolainen did not dominate offensive at even the junior ranks (going as far back as the Under-16 level). He is supposedly equal or better than Pulock in getting up the ice on the attack. Defensively, his upside is similar to Pulock's -- not quite on a future shutdown defenseman track but someone who projects as a lineup mainstay. Right now, Ristolainen is the more polished skater.
The lone reason I have Pulock slightly ahead of Ristolainen is Pulock's superior offensive upside. If one of the two is going to evolve into a top pairing NHL player, I think it will be Pulock. On the flip side, Ristolainen can attain a number three role in the NHL through a fairly linear process with a normal rate of improvement through experience and continued physical strength-building.
Darnell Nurse: Many folks seem to have Nurse as the top defenseman after Jones. There is a good chance, in fact, that he will be the second defenseman off the board and will be gone multiple spots ahead of where the Flyers pick.
The reason: Nurse's combination of physical tools, size, athleticism and work ethic are nearly of the same quality as Jones. His offensive game and puck skills are nowhere close to Jones' at this stage, but that's almost an unfair standard for comparison. The one area where Nurse has a decided edge on Jones is physical play. Nurse routinely plays with a mean streak and loves to initiate contact. Jones does so sporadically.
Those who favor Nurse as the second defenseman off the board point first to his potential to be a big-bodied, aggressive shutdown defenseman who can also skate well. Secondarily, supporters point to the fact that he showed significant puck skill improvement this year; not only in his increased point production but also in terms of poise and execution in working the puck to safety under forechecking pressure.
Three of the four NHL scouts with whom I spoke, however, do not think Nurse projects as much of a point-producer or first unit power play option in the NHL. He does not have particularly keen offensive instincts and he misses the net quite a bit with his heavy shot. That said, he showed significant improvement this past year and seems determined to keep working at it. He has the physical tools for continued betterment, although the offensive side of the game may not come as naturally to him as other facets.
Defensively, Nurse has shutdown defenseman potential but is very raw. Through over-zealousness still gets out of position a fair amount and overplays the puck carrier at times. He makes some tremendous plays but is also prone to some low-percentage gambles -- with and without the puck -- that end up in the back of his team's net. He takes more than his share of bad penalties, and can pretty easily be goaded at this early phase of his career. These things can be improved over time and it often said that it's easier to coach a player to tone down over-aggressiveness than it is to get a timid, indecisive or unmotivated player to be assertive.
Nurse is already big and strong, with considerable strength packed on his lean 6-foot-5 frame and the potential to turn into physical monster as he continues to fill out. That is the mental image that drives the projections of him as a top-six to top-10 pick. Even at his current sub-200-pound weight, the towering blueliner could probably handle the physical rigors of the NHL right away.
I have Nurse third after Jones because he is a riskier pick than either Ristolainen or Pulock, requiring the biggest leap of faith in raw physical potential turning into a bonafide NHL game worthy of a high-end first round pick. I strongly suspect he will have a protracted learning curve ahead of him. However, he is one of the two most physically intimidating draft candidates out there and it's easy to see why many are excited about his potential.
Josh Morrissey: Morrissey has a high offensive upside, somewhat comparable to Pulock's. Although he doesn't have Morrissey's howitzer of a shot, Morrissey has a quick shot release and gets pucks on net with above-average regularity. He is arguably the best pure skating defenseman among the players listed here. He also makes some tremendous head-man passes that catch forwards in stride.
Morrissey's size is average, and he has a lot more filling out to do to stand up to the pounding he'll take in the pro game. Defensively, he was considered a little below-average heading into the 2012-13 season but put a lot of those fears aside this year. He plays with some chippiness to his game but his style of play is more finesse-oriented than anything else. He is coming off a very strong Under-18 World Championship tournament for gold medal winning Team Canada.
General projections for Morrissey's draft position fall in the middle portion of the first round. It is possible that the Flyers could successfully move down a few places in round one, pick up an additional pick. and still have Morrissey on the board for their selection. It is just as possible that some NHL team has Morrissey higher than on their list and he's gone. I do think he'll be there at number 11 regardless -- and would not be a significantly off-the-board pick in any spot after the top 10.
Robert Hägg: During the World Junior Championships, former Flyers forward Mikael Renberg (now a hockey commentator on SVT) said on Swedish television that Flyers scouts had approached him to get his opinions on Hägg. Renberg did not otherwise disclose what information had been shared but it is at the very least evident that the Swedish blueliner is on Philly's radar screen.
Most draft projections and rankings peg Hägg as a late first-round pick or even an early second-rounder. However, one Swedish-based NHL scouting contact and one of the NHL.com mock drafts have Hägg ranked as a potential top-10 pick in the draft.
Hägg, who split the 2012-13 season roughly in half between Modo's J20 and Elitserien rosters, has a combination of size and a heavy shot. I watched a fair amount of Elitserien hockey this season and Hägg looked good in limited ice time in several Modo games plus Sweden's WJC games that I caught.
Although one of the scouting reports I've read likened his physical game to feared Detroit defenseman Niklas Kronwall, Hägg has thus far been groomed as a power play defenseman and a power play regular in Sweden. International Scouting Services has him ranked as the No. 3 offensive defenseman in the Draft.
Hägg was too good for SuperElit level this season, averaging nearly a point per game at the J20 level. He had one assist in 27 Elitserien games but that had more to do with ice time and focus on improving all around than it did a lack of potential to produce at higher levels as he continues to grow and mature.
The defenseman played admirably at U20 WJC and was easily Sweden's best defenseman on an otherwise underachieving U18 WJC squad. He will not be NHL ready within the next year or two. However, the mutual benefit of the new NHL-SIF transfer agreement, which enables NHL teams to hold onto the signing rights of 18-year-old draftees for four years, is that it will enable Hägg to develop at his own pace without being rushed to the pros.
The NHL team that drafts Hägg may very well have to wait for him until he's 21 or 22 to be ready to play over here at the top level. But if he develops the way he's capable of developing, the NHL team would be getting a young player with potential to step into a significant role by his second or third North American season.
Nikita Zadorov: Projections for Zadorov are all over the map. I've seen him projected as high as a top-10 pick and as low as a late first-rounder. I have him sixth among defensemen because I don't think he has the offensive upside to justify his selection unless the Flyers move down a few spots.
Zadorov is already a monster physically, standing at 6-foot-5, 230 pounds at age 18. He can sometimes play a very physical brand of hockey and his skating is not at all deficient despite his huge frame. Although he could stand to become more consistent, Zadorov likes to hit and sometimes tries to intimate with his size. He's even dropped the gloves a few times when others have taken exception to his manhandling of teammates.
In terms of offensive upside, well, there isn't a whole lot right now. While some optimistic supporters look at his collection of tools and wonder if perhaps he could be a late-blooming offensive standout as well as shutdown defender in the Zdeno Chara mold, I think his more realistic upside at this point is a bigger version of New Jersey's Anton Volchenkov.
While there probably won't be too many defensemen available later in the draft with the same combination of size and athleticism, I would prefer to select a player with a little more offensive game in the top half of the first round. Others, including the only people that really matter -- Paul Holmgren and the Flyers scouts -- may disagree and be someday proven right that he will be a top-pairing defenseman.
Shea Theodore: A run-and-gun offensive defenseman in the WHL, Theodore has very good skating, passing and shooting skills. He needs to fill out -- a lot -- and still needs considerable work on the defensive side of the game (even forgetting the ugly plus-minus ratings that have been part and parcel to playing on defensively challenged Seattle teams the last two seasons). Those question marks may push him to the lower end of the first round or early second.
Samuel Morin: Former NHL executive and scout Craig Button loves Morin; so much so that his
mock draft for TSN projected the Flyers going way off the board to take Morin with the 11th overall pick. The general projections on Morin have him going anywhere from the middle of the 1st round to the middle of the second round. It made me wonder if Button had either had a tip-off on the Flyers' interest in the player or if he was simply projecting his own fondness for the player onto the Flyers' still-existing image as a team that values toughness above all else.
Morin is a rawhide-tough defensive defenseman whose upside some like Button have likened to a less hyped version of Zadorov. Another pundit said, "If everything clicks, you've got a Zdeno Chara-like monster". That seems to be a bit much. The offensive upside is modest at best at this point. He is, however, very aggressive and physical with a 6-foot-6 frame to back it up and very good mobility for his size. He can close rapidly with his long strides.
Unless Button knows something about Philly's intentions with the 11th overall pick, Morin would seem to me to be candidate for a trade-down pick later in the first round and would be a low-risk selection come round two if he makes it down that far. My personal preference at 11th, if he's there, is Pulock.
Steve Santini: Holmgren, an active advisory voice in USA Hockey, is a believer in the work of the US National Team Development Program and likes big-framed players in general. NTD product Santini has the potential to be a puck mover with a physical edge to his game as well. I liked what I saw of him in the three U18 Worlds games I watched. Santini is a collegiate-track player, committed to Boston College next season. If the Flyers were to draft him in the second round, they'd have up to four years to sign him, although most of the college players do not play more than one or two more NCAA seasons after being drafted. Santini could probably use at least three college seasons, in my opinion.
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Coming tomorrow: Free agent forwards and a look at first-round Draft candidates for the Flyers among potentially available forwards.
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