IIHF Worlds Get Underway
The 2013 IIHF World Championships kick off today, with three of the 10 participating Flyers players in game action. The tournament is taking place in Helsinki and Stockholm. Today's schedule (all times in EDT):
10:30 a.m.
Czech Republic (Jakub Voracek) vs. Belarus
1:15 p.m.
Finland vs. Germany (Marcel Noebels)
2:15 p.m.
Sweden (Erik Gustafsson) vs. Switzerland
Apart from the three aforementioned players, the other seven Flyers-affiliated players will play their first tournament games tomorrow. Of particular interest is Team Canada, with four Flyers (Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds, Matt Read and Luke Schenn). The Canadians open play at 10:15 a.m. EDT with a match against Oliver Lauridsen's Team Denmark. Also in action tomorrow (9:15 a.m.) will be Ilya Bryzgalov in goal for Russia against Latvia. At 2:15 p.m. tomorrow, Gustafsson and Team Sweden take on Voracek and the Czech squad.
Phantoms goaltender, Cal Heeter, is a backup goaltender for Team USA. Tampa Bay Lightning netminder Ben Bishop will start for the Americans. The other backup on the team is World Junior Championship gold medal-winning standing John Gibson.
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Holmgren Aims for Roster to "Get Bigger" in 2013-14
One of the more interesting comments made by Flyers general manager Paul Holmgren at his end-of-season press conference on Sunday was that one of the two main items on his offseason wish list was for the Flyers' lineup to "get bigger" come next season. While I may not entirely agree, I can partially see where he's coming from with the comment.
The Flyers' current defense corps, with the exceptions of Kimmo Timonen and Erik Gustafsson, is already comprised of numerous hulking players (Luke Schenn, Nicklas Grossmann, Braydon Coburn, Andrej Meszaros). Rookie Oliver Lauridsen is another huge player. If anything, on the backline, the Flyers can afford to sacrifice a little size to add some more quickness, although the two need not be mutually exclusive. Coburn, for instance, is a fine skater despite standing 6-foot-5 and weighing 220 pounds.
Up front, the Flyers are currently a bit undersized or at least lacking in muscle, especially through the middle. Sean Couturier and Brayden Schenn could stand to add a little more strength, especially since neither one is a particularly fast skater. Claude Giroux, Matt Read and Max Talbot are all under 6-feet tall but make up for in other ways. Simon Gagne isn't small but is a speed-and-finesse player. The likely-to-depart Danny Briere is one of the smallest forwards in the NHL.
Power forwards Scott Hartnell and Wayne Simmonds (who looks skinny but is very strong pound-for-pound) provide most of the muscle in the lineup. Zac Rinaldo is one of the NHL's most aggressive and punishing hitters but also stands 5-foot-11 and weighs 180 pounds. Part of the reason why the team added enforcer Jay Rosehill, apart from the fighting aspect of his job, was the hope that he could effectively use his big frame on the boards in his limited ice time.
There is little doubt that the team's pursuit of power forward Ryane Clowe near the trade deadline was born of Holmgren's desire to see the team "get bigger" up front. I was not too sorry to see Clowe end up going to the Rangers instead of the Flyers. His game is pretty much identical to Hartnell's, and Hartnell is the better player of the two. Secondly, the 30-year-old was playing out the final year of a four-year contract carrying a cap hit of $3.625 million per season. It would have made no sense for the Draft-lottery bound Flyers to expend assets to rent the impending unrestricted free agent.
Clowe has said he'd like to re-sign with the Rangers but nothing is set in stone when it comes to unrestricted free agency. He is seeking a multi-year extension and will likely command a raise on the open market, although he had a miserable season in the lockout-shortened campaign between going goalless in San Jose and getting hurt (possibly concussed) shortly after joining the Rangers and playing effectively in his early games.
It remains to be seen if Clowe is still on the Flyers' radar screen if and when he hits unrestricted free agency. New Jersey Devils winger David Clarkson is another impending UFA of potential interest who plays the same sort of style.
But he, too, is going to be an expensive player to acquire to acquire on the open market. Clarkson made a reasonable $2.67 million cap hit ($3 million season salary) this season but is going to get a significant raise after a 30-goal season in 2011-12 and scoring 15 goals this year, albeit with a major dropoff beyond the first month of the season.
Before anyone asks for the umpteenth time if the Flyers are going to trade for Bobby Ryan this offseason, the answer is that it's unlikely. Ryan would still cost too much in trade, is coming off a down season and, while he 's a proven 30-goal scorer, is not the second coming of Brendan Shanahan either in his physical play or goal production. Ryan is basically a slightly better version of James van Riemsdyk with a couple extra years of experience.
It seems equally unlikely that Pittsburgh's Jarome Iginla would come to Philadelphia as a UFA this summer, even if the Flyers could get creative with their cap space. He handpicked the Penguins before leaving Calgary, and one would think it's also where he wants to finish his career.
Instead of looking for power wingers to add size and extra goals, I would suggest that the team aim instead for a large-framed two-way forward who can help the team get a little better defensively and win more battles in trenches.
One potential UFA who fits this category is an ex-Flyer and current New Jersey Devil, Dainius Zubrus. The big Lithuanian forward is very tough to play against because of his size and strength. Although he never developed the high-caliber offensive game that was hoped for when the Flyers drafted him out of Junior A and rushed him directly to the NHL, Zubrus is one of the toughest players in the NHL to take off the puck. He wins a lot of battles on the walls, kills penalties and will get his 13-17 goals and 35-to-40 points a year while playing responsible defense. He is also versatile, having played wing for most of the first half of his career and playing primarily at center in more recent years.
Zubrus, 34, missed time this season after sustaining a torn ligament in his left wrist. He underwent surgery on Feb. 14 and was not at 100 percent for several weeks after his return to the New Jersey lineup. However, the injury should have any lingering effects now that is heeled. As in Lou Lamoriello's custom, the Devils refused to hold any in-season discussions with any among Zubrus, Patrik Elias or Clarkson about contract extensions. Zubrus played out the final year of a six-year contract, originally signed while he still a member of the Washington Capitals. He earned a salary and cap hit of $3.4 million.
Elias, 37, still has good hockey left in him. One of the most underrated players in the NHL over the course of his career, he's tormented the Flyers in particular during his lengthy career. I suspect he will finish his career as a Devil, the only NHL organization for whom he's ever played. Lamoriello is not one for sentiment but Elias is still a very important player for his club to retain and he seems to want to stay put. However, Elias might be on a one-year contract basis from here on out, especially given the potential headaches of the NHL's over-35 contract rules for multi-year deals Elias carried a $6 million cap hit on his soon-to-expire seven year contract and was paid a prorated $5 million this season.
In the case of Zubrus, however, I have a hunch that the Devils are prepared to move on if necessary. Lamoriello is a believer in interchangeable parts on his roster. With 2009 first-round pick Jacob Josefson likely to compete for a bigger role next year and given Zubrus' age and salary level -- which should also give the Flyers some pause with the cap ceiling decreasing at least for next year -- there is at least a 50-50 chance that Zubrus ends up elsewhere next year.
Given the Flyers' needs to add more defensively-responsible forwards, their frequent tendency to bring back former members of the team and Holmgren's stated wish to add more big-framed players to the lineup, Zubrus would seem to be a viable candidate to wear orange and black next season.
If the Flyers go in the direction of looking for a tad more support offense than Zubrus is likely to provide and who is also a good two-way player, veteran Minnesota Wild forward Matt Cullen is another interesting name on the UFA market. Cullen is of average size in today's NHL but is versatile enough to play all three forward positions. He even filled in defense last year when the Wild were decimated by blueline injuries (sounds familiar in Philly). He adds veteran leadership as well as what he offers on the ice.
The primary drawbacks to Cullen are that he'll turn 37 early next season and has accumulated a lot of wear-and-tear of his own over the course of his 1,000-plus game NHL career. Cullen's soon-to-expire three-year contract paid $3.5 million per season.
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2013 Draft: Forward Candidates for 11th Overall Pick
There is zero chance that anyone among Nathan MacKinnon, Jonathan Drouin or Finnish forward Aleksander Barkov will be available to the Flyer when their turn comes up at 11th overall. Beyond those three players, it's anyone's guess as which top-ranked forwards will still be on the board for Philly. Things could work out that there are eight forwards taken in the top 10 or it could be a 7-to-3 or, less likely, even 6-to-4 distribution of forwards to defensemen.
It's equally hard to determine whom the Flyers would have atop their own internal rankings of the best available players. All we know for sure is that the Flyers will go the BAP route and will not draft specifically for positional need.
Russian forward Valeri Nichushkin is the wild card of the first round. He could go anywhere from the top four to the middle of the first round. Although some feel that he has franchise forward potential, he has been inconsistent at times even against players his own age to be considered a slam-dunk top-four pick. He can dominate entire shifts or entire periods and then not be heard from again the rest of the night.
Nichushkin played just OK at the U18 Worlds after Russian president Vladimir Putin
publically demanded that he be made available for the international tournament by his Traktor Chelyabinsk club team despite the fact that the club was played in the finals of KHL's Gagarin Cup playoffs. It should be noted that Nichushkin had already played in the U20 Worlds and a full professional-level season in the KHL, so he may have felt he had nothing to prove at the U18s.
Yesterday, Nichushkin's KHL contracting rights were traded from Traktor to Dynamo Moscow. Since then, there have been conflicting reports as to whether Nichushkin intends to play out his in Moscow through the 2014-15 season or whether he plans he come over directly to North America. Earlier, the indication was that he wanted to come over to the NHL immediately but now there are
Russian media reports attributing statements to him that he wants to take the same career path as Vladimir Tarasenko, who spent two-plus additional years in the KHL following the Draft and then joined the St. Louis Blues this season.
When it comes to reports from Russia, one never knows what to believe. One has to be very careful in which publications and which journalists to trust and which to take with several grains of salt. Even when a player is quoted directly in newspaper stories, the published statement may or may not have obtained firsthand.
For example, in 2006, there were nationally published quotes attributed to Evgeni Malkin that he intended to play out his contract with Metallurg Magnitogorsk for one more year only to be proven false the following week when he hurriedly left Russia to report to the Pittsburgh Penguins. The statements actually came from team management and were attributed to the player in a press release. Whether Malkin had actually led management to believe he was staying or it was simply a PR-driven thing to make the player look disloyal and dishonest will never be known for sure. The fence has since been mended, and Malkin played for Metallurg during the lockout this season.
Getting back to Nichushkin, one has to wonder if his uncertain availability for the next two seasons along with some scouts' vocal dissatisfaction with his effort level at the U18 Worlds will cause him to drop in the Draft. It would hardly be the first time a highly-touted Russian player dropped in the Draft due to a combination of signability question marks (even the short-term variety) and harsh scouting critiques about wavering levels of effort.
In videotaped interviews, Nichushkin has always made clear that he wants to play in the NHL. It's just a question of when he comes. He also reportedly said in one interview that the Flyers and New York Rangers would be his top choices if he had the ability to handpick an NHL team for himself.
There is still a distinct possibility that Nichushkin is selected in the top 10 of the 2013 Draft, perhaps even among the top four. But it is not out of the realm of possibility, either, that he could tumble down to the 11th pick. That would leave the Flyers with a tough decision to make on whether to truly stick by their best available player mantra and go for a player with projectable NHL first-line-caliber skills or ignore his availability (and, no doubt, say they had whoever they take higher on their list and it had nothing to do with the potential hassles in the seasons to come).
Assuming that Nichushkin is either off the board or the team looks in a different direction, here are five other candidates of interest who may or may not be available at number 11. When defensemen are included, there also could about a half-dozen other candidates who could be viable first-rounders for Philly, even if the Flyers do not trade up or down.
Sean Monahan: I don't think there's much chance Monahan slides out of the top 10 but the center would be a justifiable best-player-available candidate if he does. He's offensively gifted, although he doesn't currently project as quite an elite NHL point getter. He has good size and skates well. He's defensively responsible and projects as an all-situations player in the NHL. Really, there's not much not to like. I could easily see him as a Devils-type player, putting up decent but not eye-popping numbers while faring well against the Flyers.
Elias Lindholm: The Swede has some similar attributes to Monahan in terms of being a two-way prospect. I saw four or five of his Elitserien games for Brynäs on the Web this season, and was impressed by his maturity with an without the puck. He has average size but is an excellent skater, a crafty passer and has a good touch around the net (although he could stand to shoot more often when there's an open opportunity). He primarily plays center but also has experience at wing. I don't know how well his offense will translate to the NHL but the potential is there to be a top-six forward who is also reliable on the backcheck and kills penalties with second power play unit upside.
Alexander Wennberg: Another well-rounded Swedish forward, Wennberg narrowly missed the age cutoff for the 2012 Draft. He enjoyed an outstanding Allsvenskan season for the Djurgården senior team, displaying both high-end playmaking ability and a commitment to playing two-way hockey. He is considered a very hard-working player and fits the mold of the type of European player who might be of interest to the Flyers.
Frederik Gauthier: Gauthier's scoring numbers as a first-year player in the Quebec League (22 goals, 60 points in 62 games) are nothing spectacular for a potential high-end draft pick. It's his physical profile and potential to get better and better offensively in the years to come that make him a candidate to go at number 11 if he is not a top 10. Gauthier has a huge frame (6-foot-4, 220 pounds) yet is a surprisingly adept skater and has two-way upside. Gauthier also has soft hands around the net. Despite his size, he doesn't play particularly mean by reputation. He is, however, adept at doing something that was a specialty of John LeClair: When opposing players line him up for a bodycheck, Gauthier has a penchant for dipping his shoulder into the would-be hitter. As with LeClair, it is almost always the opponent who ends up on the seat of his pants, while the forward simply skates away. Gauthier has played all three forward positions but is probably best suited to the left wing.
Adam Erne: His final CSS rating was #26 among North Americans after being at #13 mid-season. Erne is a winger with above-average size and high-end speed, somewhat reminiscent of a more slightly built but more polished Simon Gagne (then a center) in his draft year. Quick shot release and an adept passer. He also has some two-way upside as he matures but that's still a work in progress. He has some early career tendencies toward streakiness offensively, too, but is regarded as a player with a good work ethic.
Hunter Shinkaruk: There is no denying the smallish winger's hands or speed. Both are of high end caliber. That's what got him to the sixth spot in the final CSS North American rankings and that's what could make him an effective scoring line player in the NHL. However, there are some who feel he could be one of those high-ranked players who tumble in the first round. I will have an in-depth profile of Shinkaruk in an upcoming blog.
Max Domi: The son of former NHL tough guy Tie Domi is a very different sort of player, although he's no slouch in the agitation department. The younger Domi is a speedster with excellent hands and good ice vision that his enforcer dad lacked. Tye was short but built like a fireplug, and the 5-foot-9 Max has the same low center of gravity but is built more along the lines of Flyers' defenseman Kimmo Timonen. If Domi were even two inches taller, there's little doubt he'd be a top 10 pick. Instead, he could go just about anywhere in the first round after the top five or six. There is risk involved in drafting such a small player but his sheer competitiveness and undeniable skill could mitigate those concerns. Side note: Domi is a type-1 diabetic, which is a non-factor in a young player's pre-draft assessment nowadays thanks to the trail blazed by Bobby Clarke and other successful NHL players who followed.
Today's blog has already run very long, so I will end here. The players I listed in the two blogs are hardly the be-all and end-all of Draft candidates with intriguing upsides. In upcoming blogs, I will look at a host of other players not mentioned yesterday or today, such as forwards Anthony Mantha, Bo Horvath, Zach Nastasiuk, Curtis Lazar and J.T. Compher and defensemen Mirco Mueller, Chris Bigras and Madison Bowey. At some point before the draft, I will also do a series of "sleepers" blogs.
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Coming tomorrow: Free agent forwards and a look at first-round Draft candidates for the Flyers among potentially available forwards.
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