Be Realistic in Expectations for Raffl
Signed to a one-year contract by the Flyers in late May, Austrian winger
Michael Raffl is one of the X-factors in the organization's plans for next season.
The 24-year-old Raffl is coming off a strong World Championship tournament performance for Austria. Raffl played on the team's top line with Buffalo Sabres star
Thomas Vanek and center
Thomas Hundertpfund (recently signed by Swedish team Timrå IK). In his most notable game, Raffl had a goal and an assist in Austria's 8-4 loss to Russia.
Raffl, a 6-foot-1, 192-pound winger posted 24 goals and 46 points in 49 regular season games last year for Leksand at the Allsvenskan level (one league beneath the Swedish Hockey League, formerly known as Elitserien). He added three goals and six points in the postseason as Leksand earned a promotion to the SHL for the 2013-14 season.
During the regular season, Raffl finished fifth in the league in scoring. He trailed former AHL player
Evan McGrath (50 points in 52 games), former Los Angeles Kings center
Jared Aulin (50 points in 48 games), former University of New Hampshire and AHL center
Matt Fornataro (48 points in 48 games), and French national team right winger
Damien Fleury (47 points in 51 games).
Numerous current NHL players signed with Allsvenskan teams during the lockout that wiped out the first half of the 2012-13 season. Raffl's points-per-game average of 0.94 for Leksand was behind the pace of what some of the more notable NHL forwards produced with Allsvenkan teams during the lockout. It wasn't all THAT far behind, however.
Mikael Backlund led the way among NHLers in Allsvenskan with 1.30 points per game (30 points in 23 games) for Västerås.
Anze Kopitar averaged 1.10 points per game (34 points in 31 games) for Mora. Flyers forward
Matt Read averaged 1.20 points per game (24 in 20 games) for Södertälje. New York Rangers forward
Carl Hagelin, who played on the same SSK line with Read and Fleury, averaged 1.38 points per game (11 in just eight games) before a shoulder injury abruptly ended his stint with SSK.
Raffl is a smooth skater and a responsible two-way player. Raffl has never played at an elite league level outside of the Austrian-based EBEL -- a league that is not as good as Allsvenskan, and a big step down from the KHL or SHL -- but he did not look out of place playing with Vanek at the Worlds.
Some of the more optimistic Flyers forecasters have compared Raffl to Swiss forward
Damien Brunner. With all due respect to them, I don't think they have ever seen Raffl play firsthand. I have. I've seen Raffl play about a half dozen times between the Worlds and streams of Viasat broadcasts of Allsvenkan games.
While I think Raffl has a skill set that makes him a viable candidate to be an NHL role player -- and someone who could do quite well for himself in the AHL -- I do not view him as a player who is as gifted offensively as Brunner. I don't know if there's top-six upside in Raffl.
A better comparison player is former Flyers forward
Mika Pyörälä. The Finnish national team veteran was a late-bloomer who became a productive scorer in European elite leagues as well as a solid defensive player. He came to the Flyers on a one-year contract in 2009-10. In my
July 14, 2009 blog, I wrote of Pyörälä, "He's been a fine two-way player over the course of his European career, and he's a regular on the Finnish national team. In the NHL, I see him as a defensively solid player but not much of a point producer. He's a good skater and has NHL-caliber offensive instincts, but lacks a consistent finish touch. What you will see him do is backcheck diligently and show discipline with and without the puck. He may be able to eventually become a solid penalty killer."
During the Flyers' 2009-10 training camp, I was a guest on CSN Philly's Flyers season preview show hosted by
Steve Coates and
Tim Panaccio. Panotch invited me to come on to do a segment specifically devoted to Pyörälä. I believe that I likened my own expectations for him to playing a similar role for the Flyers as the one that
Patrick Thoresen played during his stint in Philly: a bottom-six forward who played a solid two-way game, could play any forward position, be plugged in different spots as needed and who would be involved in his share of scoring opportunities but likely struggle to finish them. Over time, he may produce more.
Pyörälä ended up scoring several goals during the Flyers' 2009 pre-season, which raised people's offensive expectations. Once the regular season started, however, he reverted to being the type of NHL player I thought he would be. He was sound defensively, but produced just two goals and four points in 36 games. Demoted to the Phantoms, Pyörälä was much more productive offensively at the AHL level but an injury ended his season during the stretch drive. He returned to Europe the next season, and has remained there ever since.
My personal scouting report on Raffl is similar to the one on Pyörälä. The two players are of similar size and skill sets. Pyörälä is a shade better defensively, while Raffl has better hands, is more willing to engage in physical contact (perhaps the most noticeable difference) and is a bit stronger on his skates. Overall, though, they are well-rounded players of the same basic description.
One area of advantage that Raffl has over Pyörälä is youth. The Finn was four years older when he came to North America and had much more high-level international and European hockey experience, which made him a now-or-never proposition as an NHL player. At 24, Raffl could still be deemed a prospect, although he is getting late into his prospect years. A restricted free agent next summer, Raffl could eventually evolve into a solid third-line player in the NHL but is far from a slam dunk to attain that level.
It is going to take Raffl some time to get acclimated to the North American game. Give him half a season before judging. At the time Raffl was signed,
Dave Brown opined that he will likely need some time in the AHL (I agree). However, there are others in the organization who believe that Raffl could immediately compete for an NHL spot if he has a strong training camp.
If he does break camp with the big club, it would be wise for people to set very modest initial offensive expectations for Raffl. To me, it would be sufficient if he holds his own defensively as a versatile bottom-six forward and ultimately produces a little bit more offensively in the NHL than Pyörälä did in his brief stint with the Flyers.
As for the Brunner comparisons, it is a real stretch to think that Raffl is going to have the same offensive impact as the Swiss forward. Brunner is more of a pure scorer and has both played and produced more at higher levels than Raffl.
Brunner led the NLA (a markedly better league than Allsvenskan) in scoring in 2011-12 and racked up 57 points in 33 NLA games during the NHL lockout. He then went on to produce a dozen goals and 26 regular season points in 44 games for the Red Wings, followed by five and nine points in 14 Stanley Cup Playoff games this spring. Brunner has also been a highly productive offensive player for Team Switzerland at the World Championships.
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Will Flyers Re-Sign Gagne?
Unrestricted free agent left winger
Simon Gagne has made no secret of his desire to stay with the Flyers and his willingness to accept a cut from the $3.5 million salary cap hit he carried in his now-expired contract. The Flyers would like to keep him, too.
It is believed that Gagne's agent,
Bob Sauve, and the team are agreed on a salary that is acceptable to both sides. However, that does not guarantee that the team will re-sign the 33-year-old former All-Star.
The problem right now: The Flyers are already about $2 million over the $64.3 million cap ceiling for the 2013-14 season and will need to clear out enough space to fit Gagne under the cap before Chris Pronger is eligible to go on long-term injured reserve. The team, which has run into trouble with cap overages due to bonuses in players' contract, will almost certainly end up needing to use Pronger's LTIR allowance but they'd prefer not to have go into the season that way.
The Flyers have asked the Gagne camp to be patient while the team figures out its cap issues. Sauve has reportedly had exploratory talks with other teams in the event things fall through with the Flyers, but he and Gagne have not rocked the boat or (as
Petr Svoboda did last year at the behest of client
Jaromir Jagr) gone full speed ahead in seeking competing offers while the Flyers' general manager works on other issues.
Tim Panaccio believes there is a good possibility that Gagne could come to training camp as a non-roster invitee and then sign a contract either when the team makes some cap-space clearing moves or when Pronger is eligible for LTIR. I think that would be very risky for Gagne, who has a lengthy injury history, to do that. If I were Sauve or Gagne, I'd want a contractual commitment from the team before training camp or else I'd seriously consider alternative options.
If Gagne returns for next season, the chances of Raffl making the opening night roster are greatly decreased. If the team ultimately decides to part ways with Gagne for cap reasons, Raffl's chances of breaking camp with the big club correspondingly increase.
As a hockey decision, I'd much rather have Gagne -- even at age 33 with some decline in his once-formidable offensive capabilities and ongoing injury concerns -- than Raffl. As a cap-influenced decision, it's a much tougher call. Raffl has the potential to do some of the same things Gagne did in his role last season after returning to Philadelphia from Los Angeles, only at a cheaper cost. Gagne's market value is still in the seven figures, whereas the NHL portion of Raffl's two-way contract carries a modest $792,500 cap hit.
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