WILL CLEARY HOLD UP FOR THREE SEASONS?
Although it is technically only a professional tryout (PTO) for the time being, the widely reported three-year contract between Daniel Cleary and the Flyers should be officially acknowledged and announced by the time the opening night roster is set. Before that, the Flyers must carve out cap space to accommodate Cleary.
In addition, with the Flyers currently maxed out at 50 contracts, once at least one among slide-rule eligible players Taylor Leier and/or Anthony Stolarz are officially assigned to their respective CHL teams, the Flyers will have an open slot to be permitted to add another contract to the team. Scott Laughton is also slide-rule eligible this season, but he is likely to be among the final roster cuts if he does not make the big club out of camp.
There is one other hurdle to clear (no pun intended) before the player can join the Flyers as a contracted player: Cleary will have to pass his physical when he reports to Philadelphia. This is usually just a formality.
Cleary played every game last season, and certainly looked like a healthy enough player in the playoffs. He has missed a total of 21 regular season games since the start of the 2010-11 season. By comparison, Simon Gagne has missed 77 regular season games over that same span: 19 missed in 2010-11 with Tampa Bay, 48 in 2011-12 with Los Angeles and the equivalent of 10 games missed last season with the Kings (many as a healthy scratch) before returning to the Flyers).
Nevertheless, there still may be some reason for long-range concern about Cleary's ability to stay healthy. He has had
significant knee problems in recent years, including surgery on his left knee during the 2012 offseason.
The type of knee problems that Cleary has experienced can often be managed by athletes for multiple years, while they continue to perform at a high level without missing many games. However, the issues don't magically disappear and they usually catch up to players as they hit their mid-to-late 30s. Of course, every case is unique.
Even so, I have some concerns about the wisdom of signing Cleary to a contract that will take him until he is 37 years old. The player is a warrior with a very high pain threshold but there is only so much that any player can withstand, even the likes of Cleary or Kimmo Timonen.
Cleary will turn 35 this December but his contract would NOT trigger the CBA-mandated rules for over-35 contracts. That means if he were to suffer a career-ending injury -- knee or otherwise -- he could retire without cap penalty or a need to place him on long-term injured reserve for entire seasons.
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Talbot's Role in 2013-14
As I made reference to yesterday, the addition of Cleary to the Philadelphia lineup directly affects Max Talbot's spot in the lineup while also making it less likely (barring opportunity-creating injuries elsewhere in the lineup) that young players such as Tye McGinn, Michael Raffl or Scott Laughton will crack the opening night NHL roster.
In Talbot's case, he seems most likely to play on the fourth line. With the re-signing of Adam Hall, Talbot is probably going to play wing rather than center. He's probably best suited to a wing, anyway. I would think that Zac Rinaldo will be the other player on that line, with enforcer Jay Rosehill as the team's 13th forward. Of course, such things must be written in pencil rather than pen.
While I think the most likely course the Flyers take is to become cap compliant by shedding salary on the blueline -- I still think Andrej Meszaros is the most likely trade candidate once he shows in preseason play that he is healthy -- there is also a chance they could pare down some salary up front. Talbot still has three seasons remaining on a contract that carries a $1.75 million cap hit. He's just 29 years and, despite coming off a season-ending broken leg, remains a desirable and versatile role player. He's valuable to the Flyers and would be valuable to other teams as well.
I would personally prefer if the Flyers kept Talbot and found other methods of cap compliance, which will ultimately include LTIR allowance for Chris Pronger but also necessitates other moves beforehand. Nevertheless, trading him is one of options that the club has open to it if it decides to move out a veteran forward and give a rookie a chance to run with a job on a checking line. Talbot's cap hit is pretty reasonable, it's not a soon-to-expire deal, and he does not have a no-trade clause to limit possible destinations.
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'Raffl Ticket': Austrian Forward Making a Big Jump This Season
Signed to a one-year contract by the Flyers in late May, 24-year-old Austrian winger Michael Raffl is a virtual unknown to most North American hockey observers.
Raffl is coming off a strong World Championship tournament performance for Team Austria. Raffl played on the team's top line with Buffalo Sabres star Thomas Vanek and center Thomas Hundertpfund (signed during the offseason by Swedish team Timrå IK). In his most notable tournament game, Raffl had a goal and an assist in Austria's 8-4 loss to Russia.
Raffl, a 6-foot-1, 192-pound winger posted 24 goals and 46 points in 49 regular season games last year for Leksand at the Allsvenskan level (one league beneath the Swedish Hockey League, formerly known as Elitserien). He added three goals and six points in the postseason as Leksand earned a promotion to the SHL for the 2013-14 season.
During the regular season, Raffl finished fifth in the league in scoring. He trailed former AHL player Evan McGrath (50 points in 52 games), former Los Angeles Kings center Jared Aulin (50 points in 48 games), former University of New Hampshire and AHL center Matt Fornataro (48 points in 48 games), and French national team right winger Damien Fleury (47 points in 51 games).
Numerous current NHL players signed with Allsvenskan teams during the lockout that wiped out the first half of the 2012-13 season. Raffl's points-per-game average of 0.94 for Leksand was behind the pace of what some of the more notable NHL forwards produced with Allsvenkan teams during the lockout. It wasn't all THAT far behind, however.
Mikael Backlund led the way among NHLers in Allsvenskan with 1.30 points per game (30 points in 23 games) for Västerås. Anze Kopitar averaged 1.10 points per game (34 points in 31 games) for Mora. Flyers forward Matt Read averaged 1.20 points per game (24 in 20 games) for Södertälje. New York Rangers forward Carl Hagelin, who played on the same SSK line with Read and Fleury, averaged 1.38 points per game (11 in just eight games) before a shoulder injury abruptly ended his stint with SSK.
Raffl is a smooth skater and a responsible two-way player. Raffl has never played at an elite league level outside of the Austrian-based EBEL -- a league that is not as good as Allsvenskan, and a big step down from the KHL or SHL -- but he did not look out of place playing with Vanek at the Worlds.
I have seen Raffl play about a half dozen times between the Worlds and streams of Viasat broadcasts of Allsvenskan games. I like him and think he's got a shot at eventually staking down an NHL role, but don't expect him to be a big scorer in North America.
While I think Raffl has a skill set that makes him a viable candidate to be an NHL role player -- and someone who could do quite well for himself in the AHL -- I don't think there's top-six upside in Raffl.
A comparison player for Raffl is former Flyers forward Mika Pyörälä. The Finnish national team veteran was a late-bloomer who became a productive scorer in European elite leagues as well as a solid defensive player.
The Finn came to the Flyers on a one-year contract in 2009-10. In my July 14, 2009 blog, I wrote of Pyörälä, "He's been a fine two-way player over the course of his European career, and he's a regular on the Finnish national team. In the NHL, I see him as a defensively solid player but not much of a point producer. He's a good skater and has NHL-caliber offensive instincts, but lacks a consistent finish touch. What you will see him do is backcheck diligently and show discipline with and without the puck. He may be able to eventually become a solid penalty killer."
During the Flyers' 2009-10 training camp, I was a guest on CSN Philly's Flyers season preview show hosted by Steve Coates and Tim Panaccio. Panotch invited me to come on to do a segment specifically devoted to Pyörälä. I believe that I likened my own expectations for him to playing a similar role for the Flyers as the one that Patrick Thoresen played during his stint in Philly: a bottom-six forward who played a solid two-way game, could play any forward position, be plugged in different spots as needed and who would be involved in his share of scoring opportunities but likely struggle to finish them.
Pyörälä ended up scoring several goals during the Flyers' 2009 pre-season, which raised people's offensive expectations. Once the regular season started, however, he reverted to being the type of NHL player I thought he would be. He was sound defensively, but produced just two goals and four points in 36 games. Demoted to the Phantoms, Pyörälä was much more productive offensively at the AHL level but an injury ended his season during the stretch drive. He returned to Europe the next season, and has remained there ever since.
My personal scouting report on Raffl is similar to the one on Pyörälä.
The two players are of similar size and skill sets. Pyörälä is a shade better defensively, while Raffl has slightly (but not dramatically) better hands and is a tad stronger on his skates. The Austrian has a little bit more grit than his counterpart, but that aspect of Raffl's game may not jump out at the casual observer. Overall, though, they are well-rounded players of the same basic description. I think Raffl could hold his own offensively in the AHL, struggle a bit to score in the NHL at least in the early going, and generally be a complementary two-way role player with a bit of speed.
One area of advantage that Raffl has over Pyörälä is youth. The Finn was four years older when he came to North America and had much more high-level international and European hockey experience, which made him a now-or-never proposition as an NHL player. At 24, Raffl could still be deemed a prospect, although he is getting late into his prospect years. A restricted free agent next summer, Raffl could eventually evolve into a solid third-line player in the NHL but is far from a slam dunk to attain that level.
It is going to take Raffl some time to get acclimated to the North American game. At the time Raffl was signed, Dave Brown opined that he will likely need some time in the AHL. I agreed then and I still agree now.
Even before the Flyers brought in Cleary, I did not think Raffl would ultimately start the season in the NHL. The leap from Allsvenskan to the NHL is just too big without an intermediate step such as the American Hockey League or at least the SHL. Now that Cleary is here, the chances of Raffl being anywhere but Glens Falls at the start of the season seem pretty slim. Hopefully for the Flyers, he plays his way into strong consideration for an NHL callup.
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Coming on Thursday: I will take a look at the puckhandling skills of the Flyers new goaltending tandem of Ray Emery and Steve Mason, and how it could have positively impact the team on the ice this season.
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