Ottawa's picked up four points in just five games to start the year, and although the team knew that the early-season west coast swing would be one of the toughest scheduling runs of the year, they can't be thrilled with their collective play right now.
I think getting back to home-ice will do this team wonders. Remember, just one year ago, Ottawa posted gravely disparate splits; 15-6-3 at the venue formerly known as Scotiabank Place, and 10-11-3 on the road.
Incidentally, I don't think there's any reason to panic just yet. But, that shouldn't stop Paul MacLean from making a few necessary tweaks to this lineup. And, right now, I think the big one is with the team's first line.
We know Jason Spezza is nursing some kind of injury and playing through; the team says groin, but obviously there's underlying concern with his other, previous injuries that I'm sure a lot of people hold when they watch him play. MacLean and the team have been careful bringing him along, and for good reason. The team's better with Spezza in the lineup, they say. And, that much is true.
Through the first five games, though, Jason Spezza's been in tough against the opposition's top-lines. He's looked the shell of the healthy player the coaching staff and fans are accustomed to, and because his line is (a) logging extensive minutes; and (b) logging extensive minutes against the opponent's best, the team's paying dearly for his line's poor-play, namely in the form of
record-breaking shots against.
Spezza, et al.'s last couple of games sort of hammer this point home. Against San Jose and Anaheim, his line was responsible for creating 26 shot-attempts, while yielding 49 shot-attempts to the opponent. That, in as few words as possible, is a bloodbath. And, through the season so far, he's only carried 45% [zone-adjusted] of the shot-attempts at evens -- a far-cry from his usual play.
The blame doesn't fall all on Spezza's shoulders: there's a linemate-question, surely, and the play of Karlsson-Methot behind them deserves an eyeball or two. Further, it likely didn't help that Spezza was playing a chunk of his minutes against the Kessel line, the Koivu line, and the Marleau line, to name a few.
Here's the slight objection I have, though. MacLean's already conceded that Spezza's game isn't where it should be right now, presumably due to injury. The weekend mauling in California only reinforced those very concerns.
And, down on the second-line sits Kyle Turris: Ottawa's best skater, far and away, through the first five games.
While lines one, three, and four, have seen struggles from game-to-game, the Turris line has been a blessing. I think part of it is due to MacLean finding great complementary players (i.e. Clarke MacArthur and Cory Conacher) for him to go to work, but I also think part of it is Turris just being that good.
Whereas Spezza's only carried about 45% [zone-adjusted] of the shot-attempts through the first five games, Turris has remarkably carried 60% [zone-adjusted] in about fifty-six minutes of ice-time. The 60% mark, generally, is where strong play evolves into domination. Amongst forwards, it puts him in the top-twenty league-wide, basically flat-even with San Jose's Patrick Marleau.
And, it's not like Turris has been playing stiffs thanks to Spezza's presence, either. He did well against the Kopitar line with Spezza in the press box. He drew the Thornton assignment predominantly against San Jose, and held his own. When he did catch a relative breather against the likes of Tyler Ennis' line with Buffalo, he incinerated them.
It's important to note that the concern about Turris playing top-lines was sort of defeated last year, when he was forced to with Spezza on the mend. Turris wasn't spectacular, but he did carry 53% of the play at evens -- a solid, solid mark.
It's
also important to note that due to the loftier offensive-zone minutes being created for the Spezza line, Turris' line has picked up a lot of neutral-zone and defensive-zone shift starts.
My point, of course, is the following: if Jason Spezza's either (a) not 100% due to injury; and/or (b) not where the team wants him right now, for whatever reason, the club should at least temporarily consider rearranging the top-six, or at the absolute least, reallocating ice-time for lines one and two.
Ideally, I'd like to see the following trotted out against Phoenix on Tuesday, in an attempt to stop a bit of the bleeding going on early:
MacArthur-Turris-Ryan
Michalek-Spezza-Conacher
I don't know how I feel about Clarke MacArthur on the team's top-line, but he's been crushing on Kyle Turris' hip and at the very least, deserves the look. And, we saw a glimpse of what Turris/Ryan can do in consecutive games now. Ryan needs the team's best playmaker to feed him the puck in those quality shooting areas. Right now, no one's doing it better than Kyle Turris.
(
Again, I note the importance of play through the neutral zone, unquestionably Kyle Turris' best attribute. This line doesn't chip-and-chase, and results fall accordingly.).
I won't even address the bottom-six, because I suspect changes are coming there, too. The way JG Pageau's ice-time was allocated last night, I think he'll be the first healthy-scratch victim. And, almost certainly, not the last.
Speaking of which: how long until Mika Zibanejad is back in the mix?
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