I still do not see an official announcement by either team, but I guess if it is done enough for TSN/Bob McKenzie it is done enough for me...
First, I thank Tim Gleason for all that he did in a Carolina Hurricanes uniform. He has always been a class act and a player that gave everything he could. For me, it feels weird to mix the moving forward why he is gone with the tribute type of blog that someone like Tim Gleason deserves, so I am going to save the trip down Tim Gleason’s Hurricanes memory lane for a separate blog.
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The 1st part of this blog works through the history leading to this trade starting in training camp. If you do not care to read the long history, just skip down below the next ===== cutoff line to find my thoughts on the deal.
In my opinion, the deal that sends Tim Gleason to Toronto for John-Michael Liles a prospect and a 6th round pick has been building since training camp. In September, Gleason was in the process of losing his #4 defense spot to Brett Bellemore. The concussion that he incurred in a fight in game 4 of preseason sort of hid the fact that he was suddenly #6 or #7 on the depth chart even if healthy. What was most striking and damning to Gleason’s future as a Cane to me was immobile he looked as compared to Bellemore. The key point was that Gleason’s issues in training camp were not so much rust-related but mobility. As a big physical defenseman whose strength is not speed, there is a fine line between fast enough and not. A similar example from fairly recent Canes history is Aaron Ward. He was a good top 4 defenseman for both the 2002 and 2006 Stanley Cup Finals runs, but when he lost a step or 2 it was the beginning of the end for his NHL career. I fear that this might be where Gleason is right now.
On September 27 toward the end of training camp and before Brett Bellemore had officially made the roster let alone the lineup I wrote:
…I think Brett Bellemore has played his way into the top 4. As a right shot, stay-home defenseman, he is a decent complement for Ron Hainsey who he was paired with Thursday night. Making decisions based on training camp can be dicey, as things often change quickly when the real games start. But what has been most striking to me in watching Bellemore compared to the veteran version of the Canes big stay-home defensemen is how much more mobile he is compared to them. I think that difference alone just offers such a leg up that will outweigh experience and anything else. …After yesterday's game I tweeted that Brett Bellemore will not see waivers.
While Tim Gleason was on IR, Brett Bellemore settled into the #4 defenseman role playing consistent if not spectacular hockey and Jay Harrison settled into a 3rd pairing slot and developed good chemistr with Ryan Murphy. Put bluntly, the team was getting by fine without Tim Gleason and did not really have a spot calling his name upon return from injury. At this point, he became expendable if the team could get a return or even just rid itself of his contract. On November 6 at the 15-game mark of the season, I did my 1st broad assessment of how/where the team might be able to improve:
1) The Canes are real light on generating any easy offense especially off the rush. When Gerbe fed JStaal with a beautiful saucer pass for a high-quality odd-numbered scoring chance off the rush, it made me think of how many of those the team is getting. The answer is very few. While the elimination of Corvo, McBain, Sanguinetti and maybe to a minor degree Pitkanen may have made the defense more sound, I think people (myself included) may have underestimated the impact to the offense in terms of transition game and ability to generate offense off the rush. I think in an ideal world Ron Hainsey’s partner would be a decent 2-way, skating defenseman who can move the puck and help create some offense both on the power play and at even strength especially off the rush. None of Komisarek, Gleason or Bellemore bring this skill set and while Hainsey is a decent skater and 2-way defenseman, generating offense is not his strongest suit.
2) The Canes currently have 3 players who are very similar in terms of skill set battling for a lone roster opening. With minimal NHL experience in the AHL, it is a must to have 7 NHL defensemen, but the team could theoretically improve by moving 1 of the 8 defensemen (2 of whom are press box bound anyway) to add a player who is in the lineup. it is also important to note that Bellmore at $600k and Komisarek at $800k are appropriately priced for a #7 or #8 slot while Gleason's $4M salary just does not fit this far down the depth chart.
So getting to the point, I think there are 2 possibilities with regard to the current defense personnel to possibly improve the roster:
--Add a decent 2-way #4 defenseman (someone would obviously have to go in that trade because the objective is not to get to 9 defensemen) that might help offensively both at even strength and the power play.
--Trading 1 of the 8 to get a forward capable of improving that side of the ledger.
The player clearly in the spot light is Tim Gleason. Again, I think he has played pretty sound hockey since his return (before being injured again) which raises hope that he can regain his top 4 form from year’s past after a rough shortened 2012-13 campaign. But at $4M and arguably only a modest, if any, upgrade over not 1 but 2 similar options in Bellemore and Komisarek, would the team be better served spending this $4M on something else? I think it is at least possible. The tricky part is that Gleason has a no-trade clause for 2013-14, so even if the team wanted to, it could be real difficult finding a deal that meets Gleason’s approval (if he is willing at all) and yields a fair return in trade assets.
I mentioned the possibility of moving Gleason again on November 14 and then in my blog on December 2, I listed 9 specific (player for player) trades that might make sense for the Canes. A whopping 4 of the 9 deals included Gleason. The 2nd trade was actually a variation of Gleason for Liles that read:
2: Tim Gleason to ______ for prospects freeing up a roster spot and money to trade a 6th round pick to the Toronto Maple Leafs for John Michael-Liles with Toronto eating the maximum half of his salary.
Why it makes sense: Right now, Gleason is a seventh defenseman making $4M. The longer he stays in this situation, the more his value decreases (see John-Michael Liles). His skill set is also redundant with Bellemore who is doing a better job of what Gleason does than Gleason himself and also veteran depth in Mike Komisarek. The time for the Canes to trade him to at least unload the big salary and gain future flexibility on the defense and hopefully get some return is now. Liles is obviously a bit of a reclamation project, but he has the right skill set at least. Per my comments above, it at least makes it possible that he can help which for the right price (very little in trade and at only $1.9M if Toronto eats half his salary).
Why it doesn’t make sense: This trade scenario is complicated in that it involves two separate deals, requires someone to take the risk on Gleason’s sizable contract and requires Gleason to waive his no-trade clause. That is a lot of moving parts to essentially swap Gleason for a less expensive more offense-oriented defenseman.
At the time, I thought Gleason had enough value that the Canes could get a return from him on the open market and then force Toronto to eat part of Liles’ contract. It is not clear if my original estimation of Gleason’s value was just high or if it decreased over the past month as he was unable to regain form/a regular roster spot, but regardless we got a more direct version of Liles for Gleason today.
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I got blasted left, right and center for suggesting that the Canes take Liles when I originally posted it 5-6 weeks ago. Certainly there will be more of that today including the trendy play of reciting advanced stats that show that Liles stinks.
Details are below, but the reason that this trade makes sense is simple: The current Canes team is not playoff bound. Giving up Gleason who is really #7 (not in a healthy lineup) costs nothing. Liles skill set MIGHT improve the team. When you are giving up virtually nothing in terms of assets, the "MIGHT" is enough. Worst case is that the Canes have a different $4M contract that is dead weight.
The longer version is:
1) It is unfortunate, but the Canes have no real need for Tim Gleason. He has not been able to earn a spot in the top 4 or even the top 6. He is a depth defenseman right now who probably slots at #7 on a healthy Canes team.
2) His skill set as a big, physical defenseman is redundant with all of the other depth options. In Bellemore, Komisarek, Harrison and Gleason, the Canes had 4 defenseman who were similar in skill set/style of play, and Gleason was not enough better than the other 3 to improve the team.
3) Meanwhile the team is struggling a bit to create offense from the back end. Transition scoring opportunities have increased only recently as the team has started to get back to 2012-13 form of gambling for goals. Within the solid defense early in the season, the defensemen were helping create very little off the rush. And the Canes power play has been abysmal. In swapping out all of the veteran offense-oriented defenseman (Corvo, McBain, Pitkanen, Sanguinetti), the team shored up the defense but maybe gave up too much offensively in the process.
4) Because of that, Liles at least represents the potential to upgrade. The bar for Liles to help improve the team is fairly low. If he can simply be defensively adequate in a somewhat sheltered bottom pairing role and boost the power play, he will improve the team.
Liles has not been good for a couple years now. And the advanced stats junkies will of course demonstrate very clearly that he stinks. But in terms of risk/value traded, he was virtually free. As a redundant “skill type” who was being outplayed, Gleason was a depth defenseman. Will Liles be more than that for sure? No. He might continue to struggle and become another mostly unused expensive depth defenseman like Gleason. But with a different and importantly needed skill set, there is at least the potential (unlike with Gleason) that Liles can bring some abilities that the team clearly needs.
The current situation is also important. The Canes MUST get better. I would love to add a sure thing top 4 offensive defenseman like Boyle, Letang, Subban, etc. as much as anyone. But this kind of player is not available. So at the point where you buckle down and deal with this reality, you can either do nothing or you can take some chances with a player who is much less of a sure thing. For me, doing nothing is failure by default and very likely blazes a path to golf in mid-April. Doing something could have the same result but at least takes a try at improving and making the playoffs.
To be an improvement Liles needs to do 2 things. First, he must help improve the struggling power play. This is right up his ally skill set-wise. Second, he must be adequate defensively at least in a 3rd pairing role. This is the challenge.
By no means am I sure that Liles will refind his game and thrive in a Canes uniform, but I am fully on board with something is better than nothing especially when the cost is virtually nothing.
What say you Canes fans? Do you like that Rutherford is at least trying to upgrade? Or based on Liles recent history does this feel like too much of a desperation move that just sees the Canes swap 1 expensive struggling veteran #7 defenseman for another?
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
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