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Meltzer's Musings: Picking 17th |
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The fact that the 2014 NHL Draft will be held in Philadelphia does not increase the possibility that the Philadelphia Flyers will make a major trade on Draft weekend. It also does not make it more likely that the team will swing a deal to move up from the 17th spot in the first round. Likewise, new general manager Ron Hextall will not be "looking to make a big splash" simply for the sake of grabbing attention and headlines.
Those things should go without saying. Nevertheless, the sentiment that the Flyers and Hextall will do something major for its own sake because of the Draft's location and/or his recent hiring already crept into media and fan discourse about this year's Draft.
Undoubtedly, Hextall will have numerous conversations with other general managers about both deals at the NHL level and shuffling draft positions. Chris Pryor and his staff have prepared for a variety of possibilities that could theoretically include moving up or moving down in round one as well as staying with the 17th overall pick. But that doesn't make this year's Draft any different than last year's in New Jersey or the one before it in Pittsburgh.
Last year, if you recall, Paul Holmgren had a series of conversations with Edmonton's Craig MacTavish on the Draft floor (widely rumored to be about the Oilers pushing hard to acquire Braydon Coburn). The Flyers also had discussions with Montreal about trading down in the first round to pick up additional assets. At the same time, Flyers management had just had discussions with unrestricted free agent Vincent Lecavalier, whose contract had recently been bought out by the Tampa Bay Lightning.
At the end of the 2013 Draft, the Flyers simply made their picks and went home.
On July 2, the Flyers signed Lecavalier to a five-year contract. This year, after Lecavalier had a disappointing and injury-marred 2013-14 campaign, they may try to find a trade partner to take on the remaining four years of his deal. Whether they can do so at the Draft or before next season remains to be seen. It also may depend on how much of Lecavalier's $4.5 million cap hit the team is willing to eat in a deal.
In terms of handicapping whom the Flyers may take in the 2014 Draft assuming they hold onto the 17th overall pick and do not move up or down, there is a strong possibility that the best available player in the pool (in the estimation of the team's scouting department) will be a forward.
This year's Draft is deeper in forwards than defensemen. Aaron Ekblad, a probable top-three pick who could potentially go first overall, will be long gone before the Flyers' turn comes up (no, I do not foresee the Flyers trading up to the top of the Draft but anything is possible). It is also highly unlikely that Haydn Fleury will be available.
Thereafter, many of the more highly touted defensemen in this year's Draft class -- such as Julius Honka and Anthony DeAngelo -- are skilled and mobile but undersized blueliners. In light of the lower projectability of most teenage defensemen and given that the Flyers often feel more comfortable with a bigger-framed defensemen unless a smaller counterpart is a markedly better player to overlook the size difference, Flyers scouts would have to be extremely confident that one of these players' upsides is also clearly higher than any of the available forwards to push hard for their selection.
Hextall said at his introductory press conference that it is his view that most of the better defensemen in the NHL "are not small puck movers." That doesn't mean he wants only big-bodied stay-at-home defensemen or would ignore a small-but-skilled blueline prospect in the mold of Shayne Gostisbehere if the skill level is truly sufficient to compensate. What it does mean is Hextall will typically give preference to Draft prospects with combination of size and mobility even if other skills have to catch up over time.
Every case is different, however, Perhaps the Flyers scouts believe there is a home run to be hit with a players like Honka. Simply by the distribution of the draft pool, however, the odds this year favor the selection of a forward as the perceived best available player at the 17th Draft position. Likewise, unless the Flyers scouts are wild about the potential of consensus top goaltending prospect Thatcher Demko, the odds of using the 17th overall pick in a goalie are pretty slim.
There is no chance that either Sam Bennett (despite his inability to perform a pullup at the Scouting Combine) or Sam Reinhart get anywhere near the middle part of the first round. Likewise, it is not going out on a limb to project that Leon Draisaitl, Michael Dal Colle, Nikolaj Ehlers, power forward Nick Ritchie, Jake Virtanen or Swedish forward William Nylander will be gone by the 17th pick. It is worth noting that there are some dissenters on Virtanen and Nylander.
Thereafter, things could fall a variety of ways. I suspect there will be teams ahead of the Flyers who have two-way forward Jared McCann high on their list, and he won't make it to 17th. Likewise, it would not be hard to imagine Flyers scouts being high on Niagara forward Brendan Perlini for his above-average skills, frame and skating but chances are that other teams picking ahead of the Flyers feel the same.
Although there are some projections that have Kasperi Kapanen (son of former Flyers forward Sami Kapanen) going as a top 10 pick, there are others that have him projected as a mid-to-late first round selection. If he's there at number 17, his family ties would not come into play in whether the Flyers would take him. However, Kapanen could be a viable option if he drops.
A trio of USNTDP forwards -- Dylan Larkin, Alex Tuch and Sonny Milano -- could fall into the Flyers' draft range. At least one or two of these players is likely to be there. Larkin is perhaps the most well-rounded, while Tuch is the biggest and strongest and Milano the fastest. All have offensive upside but Milano may have the best hands. Any of them would be pretty safe picks to eventually become regulars in the NHL. I will talk in greater detail about these three players in a blog planned for about a week before the Draft.
I will also discuss Modo forward Adrian Kempe in an upcoming blog about Swedish prospects for this year's Draft, but suffice to say for now that he a "Flyers-type" of European player who brings some size and grit in addition to skills. His older brother, Mario, was a Flyers draft pick in 2007 but was not signed to a contract. They are different types of player. Mario Kempe is a smallish speedster whereas Adrian is more power oriented. Craig Button actually had Kempe ahead of Nylander in his March "Craig's List" rankings and, from having watched quite a few Modo games online this year while tracking the progress of Robert Hägg, I can see why he would think Kempe is a player whose game is more likely to work in the NHL.
Ivan Barbashev, who has spent the last two seasons in the QMJHL with Moncton, is this year's requisite Russian wildcard in the Draft. The majority of projections have him falling in the middle part of the first round.
Beyond this group, there is no shortage of smallish forwards with the offensive skills to make them potential future top six forwards at the NHL level: Nikolay Goldobin, Robby Fabbri, Joshua Ho-Sang (the player Flyers goaltending prospect Anthony Stolarz slashed in the head during the OHL playoffs), Kevin Fiala,David Pastrnak, Brayden Point, and Jakub Vrana all fit with this general description. So does Kapanen.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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