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Meltzer's Musings: Penalties, Development Camp, and More |
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FRIDAY QUICK HITS
* One area that the Flyers have said they'd like to change heading into next season is reducing the frequency with which they take penalties. The trade that sent heavily penalized Scott Hartnell to Columbus and the free agent departure of Steve Downie will likely reduce the number of times Philly has to go on the penalty kill next season.
Last season, Philadelphia played shorthanded 316 times; only the Ottawa Senators (320) played shorthanded more often. It wasn't even close between the Flyers and the NHL's third most-penalized team (Los Angeles, 296 times shorthanded). The Flyers had to kill penalties 97 more times than the NHL's least penalized team of 2013-14, the St. Louis Blues.
When power play time and penalty killing time are compared for every team, the Flyers still ranked just 28th in the league; spending 59:10 more time over the course of the season killing penalties than they did attacking on the power play.
Hartnell actually had a positive differential in that area last season. While he was among the NHL's more frequently penalized players (1.3 penalties taken per 60 minutes of ice time), he created more power plays (1.6 per 60 minutes) for his own team than he did for the opposition.
Downie's ratio was the opposite. He took 1.6 penalties per 60 minutes, while drawing 1.3 on the opposition. The worst ratio belonged to Zac Rinaldo, who was the NHL's second most frequently penalized player relative to his ice time (3.0 penalties taken per 60 minutes) while drawing 1.7 on other teams. That was a downward slide from the lockout shortened 2012-13 season, when Rinaldo took 2.3 penalties per 60 minutes while drawing 3.2 on the opposition.
On a statistical basis of penalty killing percentage, the Flyers remained one of the top teams in the NHL in 2013-14. They ranked seventh in the NHL with an 84.8 percent success ratio and their eight shorthanded goals was tied for 10th.
Nevertheless, due to the sheer volume of penalties the Flyers took, they were roughly in the middle of the pack (14th) in terms of fewest opposition power play goals allowed. Another consideration: Killing penalties too frequently can be draining on a team, even if the penalties are killed successfully.
Players who frequently serve on penalty killing units can get worn down for subsequent even strength shifts while players who do not kill penalties may have the opposite problem of sitting for too long and then needing to get back in the flow of play.
It is possible that the excessive penalties the Flyers have taken in recent years have played a part in why they not done very well in 5-on-5 play the last couple seasons. However, I wouldn't go overboard on this factor, either.
Some heavily penalized teams still hold their own -- a few even dominate -- at five-on-five.
The Boston Bruins are the ultimate example from the 2013-14 season. Their special teams minutes distribution was even less favorable than the Flyers' (70:22 more minutes spent shorthanded than on the power play this season, ranked 29th in the NHL) but Boston's ratio of five-on-five goals for and goals against topped the NHL (1.53). The Flyers ranked 17th in that department, which was an improvement from the previous season but still in the bottom half of the NHL.
Although Los Angeles was a very heavily penalized team in its own right this past season, the Kings also earned so much of their own power play time that the net effect was LA was actually slightly on the positive end of the special teams time differential (1:18 more power play than PK minutes) this season. The Kings were third in the NHL in five-on-five goal differential (1.28).
The NHL's second-best five-on-five team, Anaheim (1.39 GF/GA differential) ranked 17th in total times shorthanded (270) and had the NHL's sixth most favorable distribution of power play to penalty killing time (22:02 more power play time).
As a rule of thumb, it stands to reason that cutting down on time spent killing penalties and getting a more favorable distribution of special teams minutes will be of at least some benefit to a team's ability to attack more at five-on-five. However, it's not the be-all and end-all of having a team that favorably tilts the ice at even strength.
Specific to the Flyers, the club is capable of maintaining its strong penalty killing percentages of recent seasons. Even so, it is a good goal to reduce the frequency with which they've had to rely on their PK units to hold the fort.
* Goaltending prospect Anthony Stolarz is at the Flyers' Development Camp but is unable to participate in any drills on the ice due to his recovery from off-season hip surgery. He is expected to be fine to start his rookie pro season with the AHL's Lehigh Valley Phantoms.
* Defense prospect Samuel Morin is said to still be a bit tender from his Achilles injury but is participating fully in Development Camp and will be fine for regular training camp in September.
* With Kevin Hayes declining his invitation to the Chicago Blackhawks' Development Camp it is looking increasingly likely that the former first-round pick is heading toward unrestricted free agency on Aug. 15. While not closing the door on signing with Chicago, Hayes' agent, Robert Murray, had said there are a variety of factors they will consider. Since the money on an entry-level contract will be similar wherever Hayes goes, the main factor seems to be NHL playing time next season (preferably within the top six forwards).
I said this the other day: If I were Ron Hextall, I would be try to see if I could trade for Hayes' rights and getting him signed ahead of Aug. 15 rather than competing with a dozen or more NHL teams for the former first-round pick who is coming off a spectacular senior collegiate season at Boston College. Hayes would instantly become the Flyers' top offensive forward prospect and also arguably the most NHL-ready. As a natural winger, he plays a position of organizational need and has both good size and good skating ability.
If Hayes becomes an unrestricted free agent on Aug. 15, the Blackhawks will receive a compensatory second-round draft pick from the NHL. The team that signs him would NOT have to give up a pick of its own; it would just be an extra pick granted under NHL rules.
As such, it is probably "better" asset management to simply wait and see if your team could land Hayes as a UFA in mid-August. However, this is a case where I really do think it's beneficial to get a jump on the competition. Hayes has scoring winger upside and is an older rookie at age 22. There's a slew of NHL teams that will make a pitch to him if the Hawks can't get a deal done and he goes UFA. I would think Philly could make a pretty good pitch, seeing as how there may be an opportunity in the near future for him to play on the second line or perhaps even on Claude Giroux's line.
With the NHL's bonus cushion, Hayes' 2014-15 cap hit would not be all that tough to incorporate once the Flyers get cap-compliant to start the season. They could simply make a paper transaction to assign him the Phantoms and then immediately recall him when they get their long-term injured reserve list allowance for Chris Pronger.
* It was a bit of a disappointment that I am not able to attend the Flyers' Development Camp this year. I want to extend a special thank you to friend and colleague Anthony Mingioni for gathering and sharing materials from the first day of camp yesterday.
According to Anthony, one of the highlights of yesterday's camp sessions was a one-handed stickhandling drill. Not surprisingly, some of the attendees fared better than others.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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