Good news for Flyers fans.

Craig Berube's team jumped four percentage points in the playoff chance. That is, Sportsclubstats.com now ranks the Flyers chances at post-season play at 18%, following Saturday's 5-1 rout of Carolina.

People keep asking me whether it wouldn't be better for the Flyers to simply "tank" the season and try for a home run in the draft.

Anyone who knows Ed Snider _ and I've known him since the early 1970s _ knows he will not tank anything.

Also, let's be real here. The last time the Flyers were in position to hit the jackpot in the draft, before they truly weighted down the odds against you, the Flyers still lost the top pick and Patrick Kane ended up a Black Hawk.

I had a long discussion with Keith Jones the other day. We both agree that the single, biggest piece of the a Stanley Cup roster these days is a true, No. 1 defenseman, preferably one who can play both ways.

A guy who can control the game and take heavy minutes, the way Scott Niedermayer once did.

I give the Flyers every credit for trying every which way to get Shea Weber and Ryan Suter and having failed to do that, I am now convinced that under GM Ron Hextall they understand they will have to do it the way a lot of teams do it -- develop a No. 1.

As much as I really like Shayne Gostisbehere, the Flyers future No. 1 stud who will be able to control the game for years to come will be Sam Morin. He looks like a very, very young Chris Pronger.

All that said, it brings me back to the Flyers right now. Ask yourself why their penalty kill has been so bad this season and why it's more responsible for them losing games than any other aspect of their play.

The answer is simple: no Kimmo Timonen. He was, at this point in his career, a 1-A or 1-B defenseman, but what he brought to the PK can't be replaced by anyone else on this roster: savvy smarts and PK quarterbacking.

There is NO ONE on the current units - not Braydon Coburn, not Nick Grossmann, not Andrew MacDonald, not Luke Schenn - who can bark out the signals, position players around him and give on-ice commands like Timonen.

Mark Streit has been a very capable replacement for Timonen on the power play and perhaps even better given the velocity of his shot.

Unfortunately, the PK unit doesn't have an 1 for 1 replacement that can duplicate or exceed what Timonen brought.

As for what we stated up top on playoff odds ...

The Flyers are six points behind the Caps for the third spot in the Metro. I'm still not convinced Washington will be there at the end.

What I am convinced of, however, is that unless the Flyers finish 3rd in the division, they won't make the playoffs. A wild card is simply not in their future.

Nor is trading for or signing a No. 1 d-man.

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