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Finally, some hockey of interest.
Last night the NHL had eight games on tap, none of them of inherent interest to the Buffalo Sabres and its fan base. Not that it's the NHL's fault, but all three bottom feeders were off as Edmonton and Arizona both joined Buffalo on the sofa.
Tonight the Sabres head up the QEW to take on the Toronto Maple Leafs in a matchup of two teams that most definitely constitute a rivalry worthy of a Wednesday night showcase on NBCSN. Fortunately for the network they can put the spotlight on another rivalry--NY Rangers at Washington--that's not only worthy of the term, but also features two teams presently in the playoff picture with bonafide stars in Rick Nash (NYR) and Alex Ovechkin (WAS.)
Sports fans throughout the country were spared a matchup that featured a Leafs team tumbling down the standings and a Sabres team inches from a two-year bottoming out period. After a 2014 portion of the season where they flirted with playoff positioning, Toronto has taken a precipitous nose-dive to their present 26th place in the NHL standings courtesy of a 5-21-3 record in the 2015 calendar year.
Interim Toronto coach Peter Horachek has 22 losses in his 27 games behind the bench and is working with a thinning lineup. Leafs President Brendan Shanahan is reviving his NHL "Shanaban" as the former Chief Disciplinarian of the NHL at the and is laying the hammer down smack-dab in the middle of the "Center of the Hockey Universe." According to Pension Plan Puppets (SB Nation Leafs blog) "At 10:30 this morning Brendan Shanahan asked to speak to the media. It was revealed that [#1 center Nazim] Kadri will be suspended/scratched/sat for the next two games as punishment for a 'history of incidents like this (being late to a meeting.)'
"We like Nazim Kadri," Shanahan told reporters (via Sportsnet.ca,) "[but] it's time for him to start making better decisions. Sweeping this under the rug would probably the easiest and the weakest move."
Ouch! (Somewhere, Sabres d-man Nikita Zadorov may have been thinking to himself, "I got off pretty easy.")
Although the Leafs still have some star power in Phil Kessel and James van Riemsdyk (both in the top-50 in NHL scoring) their roster has been depleted by the trades of Cody Franson, Mike Santorelli, Daniel Winnik, David Clarkson, Korbinian Holzer and Olli Jokinen. In addition, defensemen Stephane Robidas and Roman Polak are both shut down for the season.
Add in a goalie tandem of 58th-ranked Jonathan Bernier (2.81gaa, .914 sv%) and 72nd-ranked James Reimer (3.18gaa, .905 sv%,) a duo not that far removed from Buffalo's "tank-trio" of Anders Lindback (78th), Matt Hackett (85th) and the injured Chad Johnson (68th,) and the doors are opened for the Sabres to have a chance tonight.
Then again, here's the projected lineup for the Sabres:
26 Matt Moulson – 22 Johan Larsson – 63 Tyler Ennis
82 Marcus Foligno – 84 Philip Varone – 12 Brian Gionta
44 Nicolas Deslauriers – 20 Zac Dalpe – 19 Cody Hodgson
49 Jerry D’Amigo – 59 Tim Schaller – 37 Matt Ellis
61 Andre Benoit – 47 Zach Bogosian
51 Nikita Zadorov – 24 Tyson Strachan
6 Mike Weber – 55 Rasmus Ristolainen
35 Anders Lindback
31 Matt Hackett
Scratched: 41 Andrej Meszaros (post-game edit)
Injured: Zemgus Girgensons (lower body), Evander Kane (shoulder surgery), Patrick Kaleta (lower body), Cody McCormick (blood clot), Josh Gorges (lower body), Chad Johnson (lower body)
Of note. The top scorer for Buffalo is Tyler Ennis. His 38 points rank 150th in the NHL and the four centers listed all played heavy minutes in the AHL this season before their call-ups. Larsson, Varone, Dalpe and Schaller have combined for six goals in 49 games. By contrast, Kadri alone had 16 goals in 64 games before his "Shanaban."
True believers in "tank nation" scream "Onward!!!" whilst the defenders of integrity scoff at the notion of a team degrading itself for a top draft pick.
"If anyone is purposefully manoeuvring down," wrote a commenter on a piece by Ken Campbell of The Hockey News, "they should have their franchise revoked. I hope Connor McDavid and /or Eichel will be NHL busts of Kluzak'esque magnitude." Kluzak, a defenseman, was the first-overall pick in the 1982 Draft by Boston.
The article by Campbell entitled,
Bottom feeders refuse to tank by playing hard…and badly, calls Edmonton, Buffalo, Arizona and Toronto, "really, really bad hockey teams," but doesn't lay the blame on the players.
"Say what you will about the moves the power brokers of the Buffalo Sabres, Arizona Coyotes, Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs have made off the ice," wrote Campbell, "but it’s crystal clear that those who have a say on what happens on the 200-by-85 playing surface will have nothing to do with the stink of losing on purpose."
Oddly enough, Campbell goes on to defend Toronto, Edmonton and Arizona but conveniently leaves out any mention of the Sabres outside of the above paragraph.
Which is fairly typical of the Canadian media, generally speaking.
*shrugs*
On Sunday, Jon Vogl of the Buffalo News wrote "There are speed bumps awaiting the Sabres race to the bottom."
While Vogl's laying out his stats and schedules for the remainder of the season, one commenter duly noted, "the Sabres are on pace for about the same number of points they had last year. The Oilers are on pace for about 10 less and the Coyotes are on pace for about 25 less. Who's "tanking" here?"
With that in mind (and with gratitude to the poster,) I went back five seasons prior to find out what Arizona/Phoenix and other teams had done before the Connor McDavid/Jack Eichel Sweepstakes. (Note: The 2012-13 NHL season was shortened due to the lockout and I used their pace for a final point projection over an 82 game schedule.)
As a base, the Buffalo Sabres averaged 84 points/season from 2009-10 to 2013-14. This year they're on a pace for 52 points while last season they also had 52.
Arizona/Phoenix averaged 96 points during that same time period, this year they're on a pace for 61 while last season they had 89.
Toronto: 84 points average, on pace for 70. Last season, 84.
Edmonton: 68 points average, on pace for 58. Last season, 67.
The fact of the matter is, Arizona is doing exactly what Buffalo did last season, jettisoning all of their talent for futures after runs of mediocrity. The projected 28 point drop off between seasons is just a couple of points less than Buffalo's drop off of 30 points between the projected 82 points for the shortened 2012-13 and last season.
Toronto hasn't begun their selloff yet, so we'll need to keep an eye on them.
For historical purposes, the Pittsburgh Penguins had 96 points in 2000-01 the year before they started their rebuild. In 2001-02 they finished with 69 points (27 point decline) followed by 65, 58, and 58 points in the next three seasons.
Of all the teams in the tank right now, the Edmonton Oilers are the aberration.
Over the course of the last five seasons we've seen the Florida Panthers go from 94 points in 2011-12 to (projected) 62 points in 2012-13 to 74 points last year. For the 2014-15 season, they're knocking on the door of the playoffs with a projected 89 points.
The Columbus Blue Jackets were another team that had a bottoming out period in 2011-12. They finished with 65 points but the lockout shortened 2012-13 season projected out at 94 points which is consistent with last season when they finished with 93 points. Injuries derailed this season as they're projected to garner only 75 points.
Two teams who've gone all helter-skelter over the last five seasons, among them, the New Jersey Devils and the Colorado Avalanche with the latter doing it at the bottom of the standings.
In 2009-10, the 'Lanche finished with 95 points then tumbled to 68 the following season. In 2011-12 they climbed back up to 88, but then tumbled once again with a projected 67 points. Last season they were the talk of the town with 112 points. This year they're on an 87 point pace. Beginning with the 2010 draft they picked 17th, 2nd, (traded away what turned out to be the 11th,) 1st and 23rd.
The Oilers, as opposed to all the other teams mentioned, have been a consistently bad hockey club. In the five years prior, they averaged 68 points. Last season they had, surprise, 67 points. In the year of McEichel this season? Edmonton's on a pace for 58 points.
Fact is, there are five teams who's point totals are projected to be significantly worse than last season: Arizona -28; Colorado -25; Columbus, -22; Toronto -14; Carolina -12. Edmonton who was already a bottom-feeder last season, just missed the double-digit cut and is projected to end up with nine fewer points than the previous seasons 28th place finish.
In looking at all of this, perhaps the Buffalo Sabres shouldn't be berated because to their scorched earth rebuild, as other teams look to be positioning themselves for the best odd of winning the sweepstakes (save for Columbus.) Perhaps the Sabres should be looked at more as having good timing and any scorn might be looked upon as being derived from jealousy more than soap-box indignation.
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