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Have "Doe-ming" will tank, plus lottery notes that may provide some comfort |
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With the Buffalo Sabres on another off-night and my "March Madness" bracket taking a mild beating, as 10:00pm rolled around last night I thought I'd get a glimpse of the Arizona Coyotes/Colorado Avalanche game.
I managed to get through half of it.
After some guy on the Avalanche named Freddie Hamilton deflected a shot past this Coyotes goalie named Louis Dominigue (pronounced doe-ming) midway through the second period I'd seen enough. That goal made it 3-1 Colorado and for all intents and purposes it was game-over. I clicked it off thinking that it's possible that the Arizona Coyotes don't win another game. They may get the odd loser point or two, maybe more but with a team icing so little talent, and/or playing Dominigue, there's little hope that they'll produce even a handful of points over their remaining 11 games.
Arizona was team that had been spinning it's wheels all season and it came to the point where GM Don Maloney, with the help of AGM Darcy Regier, finally decided drive the franchise off the cliff. Beginning with a 10-game losing streak that started on February 10, the Coyotes have gone 1-15-1 and are poised to take control of the "McEichel Sweepstakes."
It's a good thing for the Arizona franchise as they desperately need one of those two top picks. On March 13, 2015 the Coyotes ownership group reported Fiscal Year 1 losses of $34.831 million. Operating losses were $16.458 million but the statement also included a one-time acquisition and closing charge of $7.878 million along with the complete amount of the $10.495 million Mike Ribeiro buyout.
The 'Yotes had a decent run in recent years with a strong group of players and a coach in Dave Tippett who proved to be more than competent. It was a run that included a Pacific division championship and an appearance in the western conference finals in 2012, but it wasn't enough. After finishing just outside the playoffs the last two seasons, it was time to change their course of action and bottom out to land a player with star-power at the upcoming draft (Doe-ming!!!!). One of Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel will be the building block and the main draw in Glendale (not to mention a shot at Arizona native Auston Matthews next season.)
It's something that's been hitting Sabres fans hard lately.
I don't know how many stages there are when it comes to dealing with grief, but Sabres fans have gone through a myriad of emotions ranging from anger and depression to a modicum of acceptance as they're dealing with the possibility that Buffalo may not finish in last place. As hopes dreams of a "generational center" are fleeting with every Arizona loss, their attention is being directed towards players other than McDavid and Eichel in the upcoming draft.
Although I won't try to fully dissuade anyone from accepting the possibility that two other teams might win the "Sweepstakes," a little salary-cap era lottery/draft history may be in order.
There have been nine drafts since the NHL came out of the 2004-05 lockout and Sidney Crosby was drafted by the Pittsburgh Penguins. In that time there have been variations in the weighting of the draft lottery as well as movement by the winner, but when all's said and done, here are the results of the lottery:
--The last place team won the lottery four times (St. Louis, 2006; Tampa Bay, 2008; NY Islanders, 2009; Edmonton, 2010)
--The 29th place team won the lottery three times (Edmonton, 2012; Colorado, 2013; Florida, 2014)
--In 2007 the 26th-place Chicago Blackhawks won the lottery and moved up the maximum allowed four spots to draft first overall.
--In 2011 the 23rd-place New Jersey Devils won the lottery but were only allowed to move up four spots to the fourth-overall pick.
Of note is that the bottom two teams have picked one-two in seven of the nine drafts, or 78% of the time. And that's a good thing for Sabres fans in that odds are good that even with a 29th-place finish, they'll land the center they covet. On the downside is the fact that the NHL significantly lowered the odds for the bottom three finishers which throws things a bit out of whack this year. Last season all bottom-three teams combined had a 58% chance of winning the lottery while this year it's down to 45% which leads to more uncertainty should the Sabres not finish 30th.
Which leads to increased security on the Peace Bridge.
With a decidedly better team and an easier schedule then their counterparts in Arizona, no one knows where this will all end up. Perhaps acceptance of the unknown should be the preferred course of action in Sabreland right now as the forces of Doe-ming! have the look of being too much to overcome.
We'll know by the end of the month as the Sabres and 'Yotes meet twice, March 26th and March 30th.
Until then please stay away from the Peace Bridge.
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