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When the Arizona Coyotes beat the Buffalo Sabres last Friday, they moved six points up Buffalo for the race to last and catching them became all but a mathematical impossibility, despite the Coyotes having one less game to play.
Both teams lost Saturday, leaving the Coyotes with six games left and Buffalo with seven. What this meant was that Buffalo would have to win three of their final games just to tie the Coyotes, and that for that to happen, the Coyotes would have to lose all of their games. Unlikely, since even the Coyotes are bound to win one out of six.
But then a funny thing happened: The Sabres won two games in a row, burning up their game-in-hand. During that time, the Coyotes lost (to Buffalo) and don't play until tomorrow.
This leaves us with a situation where the Coyotes are only two points up with five games remaining for each team. The problem with that, is that it sounds better than it is.
That is because the Coyotes have more wins in regulation (by four) and that is the tie breaker.
If the Coyotes go 0-5 and Buffalo goes 1-3-1, the Sabres will pass the Coyotes and finish ahead of them. However, logic tells us that the Coyotes will likely at least win one of their games. Let's say they go 1-4, in order to pass them, the Sabres would have to go 2-2-1.
Now, that sounds like it could happen, until you remember that the Sabres already won two games in a row. Meaning that if the Coyotes win one game, the Sabres will have to actually go 4-2-1 in their final seven games, and that, frankly, is damn near impossible.
I really don't think Buffalo intentionally iced a bad team all year just so they could get points in five of their final seven games. Stranger things have happened, but that is not likely to be one of them.
Factor in the schedule and it gets even worse. Buffalo gets Chicago, Pittsburgh, the Islanders and a much improved Columbus. The Coyotes get two dates with the sharks (good odds for a split) and a meaningless one against the Ducks where they are unlikely to ice their best players.
Based on this schedule, it's almost impossible the Sabres will get points in three of their final five games. It's also likely the Coyotes will win at least two of their games. (One against San Jose and the final one against the Ducks).
So, in the final analysis, while it would be amazing to get last place and have a guarantee of at least Eichel, the odds are really against it - more so than the two points currently separating the teams would lead you to believe.
If I was a betting man - and I am - I would put my money on the Sabres to finish 30th.
Thanks for reading.
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