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Above is the logo we want to see tonight and, welcome to the dark side |
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At 8:00pm tonight the results of the 2015 NHL Draft Lottery will be aired live before the Pittsburgh/NY Rangers game.
Sabres President Ted Black will be in the booth representing Buffalo during the actual number drawing process which will take place beforehand while GM Tim Murray will be in the Sportsnet studios for the unveiling of the team getting the first overall pick. There will no communication from those watching the lottery process and those in studio. A video of the lottery will be available later in the evening.
It's a defining day for whichever team is lucky enough to come out on top as phenom Connor McDavid awaits, but Murray won't allow himself to get caught up in that as he's taken a decidedly "Buffaluck" approach to the drawing. “I don’t think about the Draft Lottery, " he said yesterday. "I just assume we’re going to lose, so it’s just another day. We’ve got an 80 percent chance of losing the lottery."
That's been the predominant approach for the fan-base as well, "There's an 80% chance we'll lose." It's simple math but it's also a glass half-empty approach. In looking at it that way, the 29th place Arizona Coyotes have an 86.5% chance of losing the lottery while the Edmonton Oilers have an 89.5% chance of losing. The Toronto Maple Leafs have over a 90% chance of losing the lottery and all the way down the line as the Boston Bruins have a 99% chance.
Regardless of the percentages stacked against the Sabres, they still have the highest odds of any team in the lottery. Of the five pages of number combinations the league released, Buffalo has one page all to itself. I'd prefer the glass half-full approach and would like to think that it might just be our time.
That said, even if another team wins the lottery, the Sabres are in good shape as the last place finish guarantees the second overall pick this year and alleviates any anxieties associated with missing out on one of two "generational" talents. With that in hand, we can all join Murray in saying, "It’s just another day in the process.”
One should applaud the Sabres for diving head first into the rebuild process although most would have agreed that it was a couple years too late. I'm of the opinion that it unfolded the way it should have as there were honest intentions on the part of owner Terry Pegula when he gave then GM Darcy Regier the financial wherewithal to pursue his vision. It didn't work out, and it lead the team to the position it's in today.
It's a momentous day comparable to a day in 1970 when NHL President Clarence Campbell gave the wheel a spin and it came up Buffalo, stopping on the number 11. Kinda funny. When No. 97 glides up ice on an end-to-end rush, it reminds me of No. 11.
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In 2012, Regier traded fourth-line center Paul Gaustad to the Nashville Predators in a move that would signal the Sabres were headed towards a rebuild. Since the summer of 2007 when Buffalo lost their two keys to the Regier-built "Ferrari" to the summer of 2011 when Regier threw around Pegula's money in a drunken sailor dip into free agency, the Sabres made the playoffs two of the four seasons getting ousted in the first round both times. Only one time did the team finish higher than 3rd in the division as Vezina-winning goalie Ryan Miller and Calder-winning defenseman Tyler Myers lead the team to the Northeast division title in 2009-10.
With new found wealth bolstering the team, Buffalo entered the 2011-12 season full of positivity and high expectations. The team would start out well enough, but the Milan Lucic incident would ultimately expose Regier's soft core for what it was and the tailspin that followed would lead to the organization blowing the whole thing up. As the rebuild took hold, the Sabres would go from a 19th place league finish that season to 23rd in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season to 30th last season and 30th once again this season.
With the "McDavid Sweepstakes" upon us this evening, there are still echoes of the great tank debate and whether is it better to wallow in mediocrity or bottom out. The Sabres and their fans know first-hand that mediocrity and noble runs to 9th place are lessons in futility in the grand scheme of building a championship team and a journey to the "dark side" might be the only way to get out of it.
Buffalo joined a long list of teams lead by the Pittsburgh Penguins and Chicago Blackhawks who blew up the concept of noble mediocrity with runs to the bottom of the league while landing top-end prospects in the process. The Sabres were joined this season by an Arizona team that's one player away from a full purge of their veteran talent and a Toronto team that just blew up it's front office, dismissed it's coaching staff and is ready to go all Oppenheimer on the roster.
Both Arizona and Toronto had been wallowing in mediocrity for years and showed they're willing to move over to the "dark side" of rebuilding through the draft. Since 2005-06 the 'Yotes made the playoffs twice, going as far as the Western Conference Finals three years ago. In the seasons since they've finshed 19th and 18th, respectively, before deciding to pull the plug and go full rebuild. They finished 29th in the league this season.
Toronto has been even more mediocre having made the playoffs only once since 2005-06, that was in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season. Outside that playoff push they finished at or near the bottom of their division in every season except one when they finished 3rd. During that time period the Maple Leafs picked no higher than 5th (twice) and had only two other top-10 picks (a 7th-overall and an 8th-overall.)
Those are the two teams with high picks this year and look to be the front-runners for another highly touted prospect in next year's draft--Auston Matthews. As Buffalo begins it's ascent, Arizona and Toronto will be looking to bottom out.
The Sabres are following in the recent footsteps of the Florida Panthers who are on the upswing. They're another franchise that has made only one playoff appearance since 2005-06. After spinning their wheels they snagged two consecutive top-three picks in 2010 and 2011 had a bump in their standings and picked 23rd after making the playoffs in 2012, then proceeded to fall back down with a 2nd overall pick in 2013 and the 1st overall last year.
Who will be following the Coyotes and Maple Leafs after next season?
The New Jersey Devils are in the post Martin Brodeur era, and have not made the playoffs since making an appearance in the 2012 Stanley Cup Finals. They're an aging team primed for a rebuild with 2011 4th-overall pick Adam Larsson as the only young top-end pick in their stable.
Carolina's been in a playoff drought (six seasons) but haven't picked higher than 5th-overall (2013.) They picked 7th overall last season and finished 26th in the league this year meaning they'll drop no lower than a 6th-overall.
It might take another year or two but the Calgary Flames are a team worth watching. Despite them being in the playoffs right now, they were the model of mediocrity for the nine seasons prior. They made the playoffs four consecutive seasons beginning in 2005-06 but were bounced in the first round every time. They followed that with five non-playoff seasons that featured only two top-10 picks--a 6th-overall and a 4th-overall. They may prove to be the exception to the rule, but odds are stacked against them.
The Philadelphia Flyers and San Jose Sharks have just gone through disappointing seasons and may look to rebuild further down the road.
Every year there's a constant flow that has teams on the way to the bottom and teams beginning their rise with top draft picks. It's the essence of the draft to allow these teams the opportunity to compete on a higher level through drafting higher end prospects. It's not the be-all, end-all, as the Edmonton Oilers are finding out. But it is what it is.
Viva McDavid!!!
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