The day Jason Spezza was traded last summer, the guy I felt sorry for the most was Jared Cowen. Ottawa fans need a whipping boy, whether warranted or not, and have always had one. From the Alex' - Yashin and Daigle, to Wade Redden, Daniel Alfredsson (for a time), to Jason Spezza, there was always one guy who no matter what he did it was never enough.
After Spezza was dealt to Dallas, that target was firmly put on the back of Jared Cowen.
This season, every mistake Cowen made was magnified and overblown, right from the opening game of the season. All season long it was "trade Cowen" or "bench Cowen" or "Cowen is garbage". I defended him early on, but fell primarily on deaf ears.
Let's remember for a second that this is still a 24 year old defenseman who has just 212 NHL games under his belt.
For craps and giggles, I took a look at the Norris Trophy voting for the past 20 or so years, and isolated when a players first Norris "impact" happened (finishing in the top 20 of Norris voting). I took into account the age and the number of games and seasons they had played prior to that first taste of Norris love. Here are the results, picking 20 other players, of different skill levels and different abilities. I tried to focus primarily on the type of player Cowen could turn out to be, but all have had pretty decent careers.
Not everyone can be an Erik Karlsson, Drew Doughty or Duncan Keith and step right in and get Norris nominations in their first two years. Most of the players need 4 or 5 years and 250 or more games to really get in their groove. That is not to say that they weren't good players before getting Norris votes, but that is when they garnered the attention.
By no means do I think Cowen currently on track to have the careers of some of these guys, but some are Hall of Famers that took time to develop as well. Injuries have certainly slowed his progress and maybe they have indeed been enough to take him from top prospect to washout. But if Cowen can have a career akin to a guy like Regher, Hamhuis, Staal or Orpik, that isn't the worst thing that can happen.
I think the fact that Cowen has a sports hernia was glossed over during the season ending pressers. There was no indication of how long it had been bothering him, which explains why he had played just once since St. Patrick's Day. Patrick Wiercioch took advantage of the opportunity and played well alongside Cody Ceci, but if Cowen had been healthy he probably would have been in a rotation at least on the bottom pair.
Even with the injury, Cowen certainly wasn't the worst player in the league. Maybe expectations are too high and his salary doesn't quite fit with what he does, but I also took a look at some other teams' 4-5 defensemen and compared them with Cowen and the rest of the Senators blueline, in terms of overall scoring chances, scoring chances against per 60 minutes as well as Corsi% and zone starts.
As you can see, Cowen is certainly not among the elite, but he is far from below average when you compare apples closer to apples.
Cowen was projected to be a top 3 pick heading into his draft before his knee injury. The upside is still there, and time is ticking, but even if you want to move him now you would be selling low,and even in a package might not net you much. The Senators would be further off not to give up on him and hope that he can overcome the injury bug and find his mojo. He had a great rookie season, which might have increased expectations, and I know stats don't tell the whole story. Sure, he has struggled at times, I don't see the disaster that many of the Senators fans see, and firmly agree with Murray's hesitation to trade him at this point in time.
I wouldn't give up on him as of yet, and not just because he has a great first name!
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