...his presser in Buffalo introducing him as the next Buffalo Sabres head coach.
Purely speculative? Yes.
Optimistic? Very.
A reach? Maybe.
Here's the deal.
The Detroit Red Wings ain't what they used to be. Back in the day, before the salary cap was introduced, the perennial Cup-contending Wings had it all. They had money, Hall-of-Famers and a reputation for being the place a free agent could go for a legitimate shot at the Stanley Cup. Although Wings owner Mike Illitch had (and has) the wherewithal to compete financially with the Toronto's and NY Ranger's of the league, he rarely had to do it on financial terms. Players like Chris Chelios, Brendan Shanahan, Luc Robitaille, Brett Hull and Dominik Hasek (to name a few) would gladly play for less money to get their name on the Stanley Cup.
But times have changed.
"Relationships and geography have always played a role in where a free agent will sign," wrote Puckdaddy's Greg Wyshynski
last July 2nd, "but it’s now become overriding factors since the money’s become equal. Predicting the next home for a free agent used to be as easy as predicting who could give him a max contract; now it comes down to whether his father’s cousin’s son’s sister’s friend’s former roommate is the assistant general manager."
Those represent the reasons, Wyshynski believed, as to why the Red Wings, once "the" destination for free agents, had struck out so often over the previous two summers. "Why did [Ryan] Suter sign in Minnesota? Family and geography." wrote Wyshynski. "Why did [Dan] Boyle sign in New York? For Marty St. Louis (one assumes) and because he always wanted to play in New York. Why did [Matt] Niskanen sign in Washington? Because his mentor with the Penguins is now their assistant coach. Why did Ryan Miller sign with Vancouver? Because the guy who drafted him is the GM."
Defensemen Suter, Boyle and Niskanen were all prime targets of Wings GM Ken Holland in his effort to help replace retired sure-fire, first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, Niklas Lidstrom. You could also add to that list defensemen Christian Ehrhoff, who signed a one-year deal with Pittsburgh, Tom Gilbert who signed with Montreal, Stephane Robidas who signed for three years in Toronto, Mark Fayne who went to Edmonton and Anton Stralman, who went to Tampa Bay.
All of these players were right in Holland's wheel house, but the Wings whiffed. And, if rumors were true, they even whiffed on trading for a right-handed defenseman in Tyler Myers.
It's way too early to say that the Wings empire is about to crumble, especially when they have arguably the best hockey mind in the game in Jimmy Devellano, but cracks are showing. The aforementioned failure to attract key free agents is one thing, another is who will carry the torch once Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg retire. They received it from players like Lidstrom and Steve Yzerman, but questions remain as to whether or not the Wings have players of that caliber to pass the torch to. That's one of the stated reasons Babcock was over in the Czech Republic watching the IIHF World Championships.
Playing for Team USA was Detroit's 2014 first round draft pick, Dylan Larkin. The 15th-overall pick displayed tremendous drive and skill but was unable to transfer that to the scoresheet. In 10 games at the World's Larkin registered just one assist. It's not an indictment of the player, but it just shows that he might be another year away from heading to the pros.
Another highly touted draft pick for the Wings who's a little farther away than anticipated is Anthony Mantha.
Mantha had an incredible final year playing for Val d'Or Foreurs of the QMJHL in 2013-14 with 120 points (57+63) in 57 games, but he struggled with the Grand Rapids Griffins during his first pro season. Solid regular season numbers (62 games, 15 goals, 18 assists) for Mantha took a dive during the playoffs as he's only been able to produce one goal and two assists in 10 games thus far.
Most fans would cut some serious slack, but Devellano, the person who built the Red Wings out of the morass that was the "Dead Wings-era" was brutally honest as to how he saw Mantha's performance. After Mantha registered one assist in the five-game first round playoff series win over the Toronto Marlies, Devellano said Mantha's performance was "very, very, very disappointing. I say that with a lot of sadness. Coming out of junior, we had such high hopes for him.”
Ouch!
Before I start getting car parts and tires thrown at me from the Motor City fanbase, let's get one thing straight, in no way, shape or form am I saying that the Wings are headed towards what Buffalo just went through. And in no way am I saying that Buffalo is on par with Hockeytown. But I will say that there's a categorical shift in the balance of power and Detroit seems to be caught up in a transitionary period where their playoff streak of 24 consecutive seasons may come to an end. And the players they thought they could pass the torch to are not as close as they once thought.
If Detroit continues on their path of the last five years of relative skill-level stagnation, they're in for a fairly long climb back to the top of the mountain, and unlike the Buffalo Sabres, they'll be doing it without the benefit of top-end talent selected at the top of the draft.
After the Game-7 loss at Tampa Bay, the sixth year in a row the Wings have not made it past the second round of the playoffs, Babcock laid this out, “We’ve got lots of good young players, no question about it, and ideally we’ve got some good ones coming, but who’s going to replace Pav? I don’t think Pav’s going anywhere right way. But I mean, that’s what you’ve got to do.
"In the end, you’ve got to have big-time players up the middle and on the back to be successful. So those are questions in our organization that we work towards, drafting good and developing good, but we've been winning too much. That’s the facts.”
"Winning too much" has always placed the Red Wings way down the draft order far away from the immediate impact players found at the top of the draft. Since the 1990-91 season when the playoff streak started, the Wings have picked no higher than No. 10 (Martin Lapointe, 1991) and the Larkin pick at No. 15 was their highest pick since that draft.
On the positive (actually incredible) side, it's a tribute to their remarkable scouting department and hockey operations leadership that they were able to do what they've done, drafting where they did, which includes four Stanley Cups during their playoff streak. Landing Datsyuk with a 6th rounder in in 1998 and Zetterberg with a 7th rounder in 1999 were individual draft-coups of historic proportions. It gave Babcock the answer to a question as to who would replace Yzerman, Shanahan and Lidstrom.
But "who's going to replace Pav?"
The answer may not be in the Detroit system for the coming season or the immediate future.
In this bloggers eyes, Babcock's closer to that answer in Buffalo when looking at presumed 2nd overall pick, Jack Eichel or even last year's 2nd-overall pick, Sam Reinhart.
It's not a perfect world as Babcock found out when the Pittsburgh Penguins didn't come calling during his journey to explore his coaching options. Outside of the St. Louis Blues, a franchise that still has their head coach, but came to the party a bit late, none of Detroit, Buffalo or Toronto can give him the type of team that's a Cup-contender right now.
The Blues might be the best fit for Babcock as they have a strong core group which includes David Backes, TJ Oshie and Kevin Shattenkirk, among others, in their prime. The Blues roster is bolstered by Vladimi Taresenko, a superstar in the making plus the likes of good young players like Dmitri Jaskin, Jaden Schwartz and Ty Rattie up-front and a deep pool of prospects on defense.
St. Louis has been talked about as a Stanley Cup contender for a couple years running, but just can't seem to get out of the first round. Methinks Babcock could get them over the hump.
But unless news of a St. Louis/Babcock marriage was hidden totally from the media "insiders," the Blues are out of the equation. The San Jose' Sharks threw themselves into the mix late as well, but with Babcock's family entrenched in the Detroit area, sheer proximity might take them out of the equation before they can even make a pitch.
That leaves Toronto and Buffalo.
The Leafs are two years behind the Sabres when it comes to a rebuild that's looks to be on the way at "The Center of the Hockey Universe" which would put Babcock at least three years away from even thinking about being a playoff contender. And with a new lottery system in place, finishing near the bottom of the league won't assure them of a top pick in the drafts either.
Fact is, outside of the comfort of Detroit and the Stanley Cup potential that St. Louis has, the best place for Babcock is the Buffalo Sabres.
This is worth repeating, "In the end, you’ve got to have big-time players up the middle and on the back to be successful." That was the conclusion Bacbcock came to after getting ousted in the playoffs this year. One would think that he saw some big-time play over in Prague from Larkins' USA teammate Eichel as the kid was the talk of the US squad.
That's one center.
Then there's Reinhart, and like WGR's Paul Hamilton said, Datsyuk was never the professional wrestler-type, yet the 5'11" 195 lb. center battled as well as anyone on the ice. The 6'1" 185 lb. Reinhart is an incredibly smart hockey player with "hockey sense off the charts," wrote TSN's Craig Button pre-draft.
"I don't know that I've seen a guy that can make plays like Sam can in the last 10 to 15 years," said Sabres head scout Kevin Devine at the time. "His playmaking ability. That's the thing that stands out for him. He sees the ice really well. Knows how long to hold the puck, when to pass it, when to shoot it...just uncanny hockey sense."
Reinhart's another.
Or how about even more depth down the middle with Zemgus Girgensons who oozes leadership and had a thick enough skin and enough skills to produce 30 points (15+15) in 61 games for the Sabres last season while just turning 21 in January. Also down the middle is Johan Larsson and his junk-yard dog relentlessness that should be a fixture in the bottom-six for years to come. Both played in a top-line role on a team devoid of talent, yet both not only held their own, but also make huge strides in their individual development. On a last place team, no less.
On defense, the answer of who will replace Lidstrom will not be answered because he's one of the top d-men of all time. But the Sabres could throw Rasmus Ristolainen into the conversation as a top-pair d-man. Zach Bogosian is in the #2/3 mix while Nikita Zadorov, should he develop further, is a top-four candidate. Mark Pysyk's in the top-four possible top-two mix as well.
All of the Sabres players mentioned should be fixtures on the team for years to come and if Babcock is willing to wait a year for it to start coming together, he might be able to enjoy a 10-year run in Buffalo and hopefully enjoy the success he had in Detroit.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
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