Over the past few days I have seen Jordan Staal mentioned as a third line center option for the Penguins. On the ice this idea is very good. Staal is a highly effective player and will be for the foreseeable future.
After watching both Marc-Andre Fleury and Chris Kunitz leave in the same month after long careers with the Penguins I'm sure that Pittsburgh's core group would love to welcome an old friend back.
That old friend comes in with a big cap hit of 6M. That isn't too high for Pittsburgh to make it work, but it is naive to think that it wouldn't have an impact on Jim Rutherford's ability to make other moves. I do believe what Staal brings is worthy of a 6M price tag. He is an elite defensive center that has the ability to contribute offensively when he is not saddled with less than desirable quality of teammate.
His contract runs forever so by the end of it you won't be getting your full 6M out of him. The contract takes him until he is 34. I don't view him as a player that will fall off the table quickly. I also don't believe he will maintain his elite abilities at that age, but who does?
I keep bringing up elite abilities so I should probably provide some evidence of this. Here are his most common opponents from the last three seasons and how they did against Staal and then how they did when they weren't head to head with him
So only Cam Atkinson has gotten the better end of Jordan Staal on the possession front the last three years. Guys like Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, John Tavares, Claude Giroux, Nicklas Backstrom, Brandon Saad, and Derek Stepan found themselves in their own end more often than not when up against Staal. For some of these players they were caved in.
While the possession stuff is consistently awesome Jordan Staal's offensive production lends itself to criticism. There have been a few years where his offensive production has been woefully low. Something you definitely can't have at a 6M price point.
How much of this is on the player himself and how much of it was usage driven. I'll let you decide.
Since coming to Carolina here are Jordan Staal's two most common linemates from each season
2012-13: Jeff Skinner, Patrick Dwyer
2013-14: Nathan Gerbe, Patrick Dwyer
2014-15: Eric Staal, Elias Lindholm
2015-16: Joakim Nordstrom, Andrej Nestrasil
2016-17: Sebastian Aho, Elias Lindholm
Nathan Gerbe and Patrick Dwyer aren't going to cut it. Neither are Joakim Nordstrom and Andrej Nestrasil. Remember, Jordan Staal isn't the third line center in Carolina, these are the guys Carolina has surrounded him with in a top six role. To state the obvious it leaves a lot to be desired. The most recent season saw his best offensive year since his Pittsburgh days and it was no coincidence that it came with skilled players and Lindholm in his third NHL season and not his rookie year.
The way the Penguins are currently set up if Jordan Staal was magically dropped into the 3C slot they would be able to surround him with better teammates than what Carolina has done for most of his tenure there. You would more than likely get acceptable offensive contributions from Staal on top of the elite defensive ability.
However, the biggest issue with the Staal idea is the cost to acquire and not just the contract. Carolina is not just going to give him away. This isn't going to be a situation where the Penguins get Staal back for pennies on the dollar. Carolina has shown through their moves in recent years that Ron Francis has an ear for the analytical side of things. Jordan Staal clearly has value. So not only would Pittsburgh have to absorb that contract (they could), but they would have to pony up assets to acquire him. Some of those assets would be players able to make an NHL impact on ELC contracts. The exact kind of players you would need to have on your team to make Jordan Staal's contract work in Pittsburgh. Carolina is positioning themselves to make a run at the playoffs. A deal centered on future draft picks won't be palatable to Francis.
In a hypothetical world the Penguins could get away with signing Jordan Staal to a 6 year 36M contract if he was an unrestricted free agent. In the real world when you combine the contract with the cost of acquisition it would take away Jim Rutherford's flexibility down the road and that cap flexibility was one of Jason Botterill's best parting gifts.
I love the player. I love the potential fit in the lineup. I don't love the real world application of how it would go down. If the Penguins are looking for a Staal to play third line center for the team it's probably the older brother that makes more sense
Eric was great for Minnesota last year. I would assume that the cost of acquisition would be less and at 3.5M for the next two years the contract is way more desirable. I have no idea if Minnesota is even interested in moving him, but it's food for thought.
Thanks for reading!
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