I have received word from a great source that Craig Leipold will be meeting Gary Bettman on Wednesday morning in New York, along with representatives from the potential local ownership group.
According to the source, Leipold is planning on signing a letter of intent to sell the franchise, either to the local group or to "Boots" Del Biaggio at or soon after this meeting. Given that members of the Nashville group will be accompanying Mr. Leipold to New York, one can assume that Kansas City will have to wait for the team that they quite possibly have been promised.
A month ago, TDS (that's The Daily Show) reported that the proposed deal that the local group was trying to get together would be worth $195 million ($125 million in equity and $70 million in debt). At that time they had between $75-85 million committed among three or four individuals and it seemed as if their efforts had stalled.
It will be extremely interesting to see what the final sale price will be, if in fact a letter of intent is signed with the local group. I wouldn't be shocked if it actually ends up being quite a bit lower than the $195 mil, as many reports indicated that Del Biaggio's interest in this franchise in its current state wasn't as high as originally thought.
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Under the assumption that the deal does get done with the local group - and I do caution because it's not a done deal - here's where that would leave all interested stakeholders:
Craig Leipold
It's not going to be $240 million but he will have found somebody to take the team off his hands and keep them in Nashville. He seemed more than willing to sell the team to Mr. Balsillie but local ownership certainly seemed like his preference all along. Although if he had been given the choice between $240 million and $180-190 million (maybe less) it wouldn't have been such a tough call.
Local Ownership Group
This group will certainly have their work cut-out for them. Sure there is momentum right now but what is going to happen if/when this team struggles down the road? They have already stated that the team will need 16k paid to break-even and be competitive and that is far from an easy task, even in a hockey market. The group should be able to use their connections within the community to drum up corporate support.
Jim Balsillie
No he doesn't have a hockey team (yet), but he still does have the $240 million and a desire to own a team. Think there may be other owners who would be willing to take his calls?
With expansion potentially looming, we may well see a rush for some of the struggling teams to sell before potential destinations and significant cash is taken off the table. For example, let's pretend, hypothetically, that Phoenix, Florida and Atlanta are struggling and all have a strong belief that with a $34 million dollar salary floor (and rising) and potentially decreased portions of revenue sharing in the coming years their teams aren't viable long-term. Now they look around and see three owners lined up for three destinations: Las Vegas, Kansas City and Hamilton. If the NHL decided to expand to two of those cities that would leave one potential owner with a very large checkbook and three teams looking to sell. Sure there could be other options like Houston, Portland or Winnipeg but it's extremely unlikely that the payday will even be comparable.
I've said it before that if I'm Mr. Balsillie, I'd set my sights on Phoenix. We all know that Gretzky believes in Hamilton as a hockey market, we all know that it would allow him to work close to his father while becoming even greater of a Canadian legend, and most of all that legal challenges aside, Wayne Gretzky could be one of the few things that could force Gary Bettman's hand. Plus if you're looking to steal some headlines away from the Leafs, having #99 behind the bench certainly wouldn't hurt.
Commissioner Bettman
For now this is exactly what Gary Bettman wanted. He kept Jim Balsillie away from the Board of Governors, kept the Preds out of Canada and kept hockey in a market that he chose to enter. But Gary is going to have to answer to Hamilton and to Canada one of these days. Ten relocated/expansion teams in a row have ended up in the US. Hockey in Canada has never been stronger. This one won't go away..
City of Nashville / Predators Hockey Fans
Credit to the fans for coming together to help generate support for the team locally. I'm amazed at the passion and loyalty of the Nashville fans and I keep saying to them, "I only wish that there were more of you". Hopefully for the city, this passion will begin to spread.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Who doesn't enjoy a good game of monopoly once in a while? But at some point soon I do believe that things will change. The market is more than large enough for two teams. There is enough interest and more than enough money to go around. Bill Daly has confirmed that there is no veto power and I'm sure that there are potential arrangements that could be more favorable to the Leafs (ie Hamilton games on Leafs' TV, Leafs get majority of Saturday HNIC games and an early game is added to makeup weekly triple-headers).
NHL Players
The players receive a set percentage of revenues under the CBA. So the only way for them to earn more money as a whole is for the league to keep growing revenues. Can the new ownership group make Nashville a stronger market? Would a team in Hamilton generate more revenues than an average team?
City of Hamilton
Always a bridesmaid, never a bride. I can understand their frustration and sympathize with their plight. This city should have gotten a team about 15-years ago. Now they surely feel like it may never come. But sometimes good things come to those who wait, and often when it's least expected.
Canadian Hockey fans
We're mad as heck and we're not going to take it anymore. Canadian teams made up 33% of the league's teams not too long ago. Now it's down to 20% and potentially lower if expansion teams are granted to KC and Las Vegas. I think that fans across the country need to unite to put pressure on the league. It's not unreasonable to imagine a 32-team league that has eight teams in Canada five years from now.
Other Team Owners
The $243 million bid wasn't going to increase the value of all franchises to $243 mil+ but I do believe that it would have helped values across the board, at minimum 5-10%. But like I said before, that offer will likely still be out there.
Kansas City/AEG/Boots Del Biaggio
No point in going through the hassle of dealing with legal issues and trying to get out of a lease when you can get a team through easier channels. It's been rumoured that the Kansas City group has been promised a team in the short future and the fact that Del Biaggio didn't seem to go after the Preds very aggressively leads one to believe that it will be an expansion team.
Las Vegas/Jerry Bruckheimer
There have been stories of exorbitant expansion fees that have been promised to the Board of Governors. It's been well documented that Mr. Bruckheimer wants a team but whether he is willing to pay well over $200 mil for one remains to be seen. People seem to be split on how successful a team in Sin City would be, but there's a good chance we'll get to find that out.
U.S. and Canadian TV Rights-Holders
Having a team in Nashville does not make the NHL more attractive in terms of National TV rights. Putting a team in Hamilton would certainly be good for Canadian rights-holders as there would be more high profile games to share and potential for triple-header Saturdays.
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For those who are interested, the Nashville Post had some interesting information in regards to ticket sales and revenues in Tuesday's paper:
* Season tickets sales are up to 7,452. Last year's total was 8,758.
* 1,201 of current sales are new and 467 are to businesses.
* That means that 6,251 season tickets have been renewed to date (71.3%). I believe when they are talking about season tickets they are actually talking about FSTEs, which includes partial plans and mini packs. I'd imagine that many of those packages aren't announced/renewed until the schedule is announced, which was only recently.
Last season's ticket sales
Upper Bowl: 5,551 sold of 6,384 per game (87%)
Club Level: 1,344 sold of 1,819 per game (74%)
Lower Bowl: 5,653 sold of 7,938 per game (71%)
Total: 12,548 sold of 16,141 per game (78%)
** These numbers must be slightly off because paid attendance was actually 13,815 per game and total capacity is 17,115.
Average ticket prices:
Upper Bowl: Sold = $21.42, Unsold = $29.98
Lower Bowl: Sold = $62.98, Unsold = $69.83
Total value of unsold tickets = $8.7 million (approx)
Ticket price increase for 2007-08: 10-12%
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I've said from the beginning that the Preds should stay in Nashville IF there is an owner / ownership group willing to ante up to keep them there. At one time this seemed very unlikely (Leipold wasn't even able to find a minority owner) but it's now looking like this dream for Predators fans could become a reality.
We'll see what happens on Wednesday. As much as the information of the meeting was from a great source we've all seen how quickly things can change in a day...
Danny -
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