You're probably already sick of reading about Dustin Penner but I wanted to get in one last post which will tie in nicely with a detailed post tomorrow based on some salary research I've been working on.
The way people are talking you would think the offer sheet that was signed was the most outlandish contract in NHL history.
But as it stands now, Penner will be tied for the 75th highest paid player in the league next year with Bobby Holik, Tomas Kaberle, Mike Modano, Mattias Norstrom and Henrik Lundqvist.
For me these figures for the upcoming season really put the deal into perspective:
58 players will make $5 million+
91 players will make $4 million+
147 players will make $3 million+
240 players will make $2 million+
And those numbers will go up even higher once the remaining free agents sign.
Here are some stats on Penner that you may or may not already know:
* 24 years old
* 6'4, 245 lbs
* 29 goals (tied for 43rd with Alfredsson, Straka, Shanahan, Cole and Jordan Staal)
* 19 goals on the road (tied for 11th with Sakic, Gaborik, Satan)
* 20 goals at even strength (only 28 players had more)
* 9 powerplay goals (tied with many including Briere, Nash, Jokinen, Cole, Naslund, Demitra)
* 5 game winning goals (43 players had more, tied with Cheechoo, Hossa, Spezza, Jagr, Elias, Vanek, etc)
* 0 empty net goals
* Second on the team in goals (to Selanne)
* Second on the team in even strength goals (to Selanne)
* Tied for third on the team in GWG
* Third in shots and second in shooting percentage
* Played only 14 minutes per game (9th among Ducks forwards and less then Travis Moen)
* After the all-star break Penner had 13 goals and 6 assists in 32 games and was a +7. Ten of those goals came at even strength. Penner's shooting pct was 18.8%.
* In his second year in the AHL Penner had 39 goals and 84 points - in 57 games
* Combined 6 goals and 17 points in his first two playoff seasons (34 games)
Given those stats and what you could reasonably project for the next few years, does Penner's name really look out of place on this list?
Scott Hartnell - $25.2 mil ($4.2 x 6)
Brenden Morrow - $24.6 mil ($4.1 x 6)
Derek Roy - $24 mil ($4 x 6)
Nathan Horton - $24 mil ($4 x 6)
Ryan Whitney - $24 mil ($4 x 6)
Dustin Penner - $21.5 mil ($4.3 x 5)
Jason Blake - $20 mil ($4 x 5)
Michael Nylander - $19.5 mil ($4.875 x 4)
Cory Sarich - $18 mil ($3.8 x 5)
Michael Handzus - $16 mil ($4 mil x 4)
I wrote not too long ago about a shift in philosophy - moving from paying for past performance to paying for potential performance. I believe that is what Lowe was thinking in making this deal. Penner right now is probably only worth $2.5 mil for this upcoming season so the Oilers are overpaying by around $1.8 mil. Sounds outrageous but when you look around the league and see the wasted cap space and overpaid players sprinkled across pretty much every team, it doesn't look so bad at all.
In this case there is a huge premium paid for stealing a young player from another team - just like there is a huge premium for signing UFAs because of the competitive marketplace. When given the choice between those two groups of players I'd go with the players who are still getting better and hitting their prime any day of the week, even if it means giving up the picks. It's a little riskier of course but the payoff can be huge, especially when you recall the graph I posted showing the average goals per season of the top 100 goal scorers of all-time by age:
As for Kevin Lowe, despite the criticism, he's done quite well this summer. He brought in Souray, Pitkanen and Tarnstrom who will bring mobility and an offensive flair to their blueline. He signed Mathieu Garon to shore up the goaltending and added Penner to his stable of young forwards. He did trade the 1st, 2nd and 3rd but still has Anaheim's 1st along with a very impressive group of prospects that includes Chorney, Cogliano, Gagner, Nilsson, O'Marra, Plante, Pouliot and Schremp.
Even by overpaying Souray and Penner the Oilers are still in good shape in terms of their future cap space and may well end up better off in the long run by not having signed Ryan Smyth.
In case you are interested, here is a great list of past offer sheets that have been signed:
Historical Offer Sheets
This wasn't the first offer sheet and it certainly won't be the last. There is a reason why the NHLPA negotiated significantly lower compensation levels for restricted free agents and that reason is well apparent now to everyone.
It's time for everyone to move on now. There must be something more interesting to write/talk about than this "will he match" or "won't he match" soap opera between two close friends (or are they now ex-friends?). For example..
* There's the Cammalleri arbitration hearing (Kings chose a two-year deal, terms TBA)
* Many unsigned UFAs (Selanne, Forsberg, etc)
* The new uniforms (sounds like everyone is anxious)
* The outdoor game (also TBA)
* Trade rumours (will there be a blockbuster before camps open?)
* Oh ya and how the heck did Mike Comrie land Hilary Duff?!
Just 58 days to go until the puck drops in England...
Danny -
[email protected] 
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